Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa

Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992–2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.     

A conception of casualty control based seismic design for buildings

Earthquake disaster is still the number one among all natural disasters, particularly, in terms of destructive power in causing deaths. Can earthquake engineers control seismic casualties through the seismic design of buildings? For this purpose, a conception of casualty control based seismic design is presented and a “two-step decision-making” method is proposed for determining the optimum seismic design intensity (or ground-motion) for controlling both seismic death and economic losses. The key problems in establishing the model are to determine the appropriate socially acceptable level of earthquake mortality and establish the corresponding objective function and /or constraint conditions in determining the optimum seismic design intensity. Ten different grades of socially acceptable mortality are suggested and the final socially acceptable mortality level was proposed for seismic design based on a questionnaire that was distributed nationwide in China. Finally, the method was applied to eight cities with different seismic hazard in China and the effects of various grades of acceptable earthquake mortality on seismic design intensity are analyzed.     

Effects of salinity on survival,feeding behavior and growth of the juvenile swimming crab,Portunus trituberculatus (Miers, 1876)

Effect of salinity on survival,feeding behavior and growth of juvenile swimming crab P ortunus trituberculatus was investigated under 5 salinity levels of 5,10,20,30 and 40. The results show that the crab juveniles fed 2 or 3 times at the salinity 20 and 30,each lasted for about 25 minutes,for a total feeding time of 73.2±22.65 minutes per day. At these salinities,there were significantly higher in the frequency of feeding and in total feeding time than those at lower salinities of 5 and 10. All crab juveniles moulted when reared at a salinity of 20 during the 5 days duration of the experiment,which is significantly higher than those at other salinities. All juveniles survived at salinity 20,and the survivorship was not significantly different from that at 30,but was signif icantly higher than those at other salinities. The crab juveniles reared at a salinity of 20 had the highest value of food ration of 0.190 8±0.011 3 g/g BW,average body weight gain of 0.796±0.128 g,gain rate of 87%–96%,and food conversion ratio of 1.20±0.09. There was no significant difference in the values found between 20 and 30 but these values were significantly lower than that at the other salinities( P 0.05). Highest activities of digestive enzymes(Amylase,Protease,Lipase) and lowest activities of protective enzymes(SOD,PO,CAT) were also obtained on crab juveniles reared at salinity of 20.     

High Arctic sea ice conditions influence marine birds wintering in Low Arctic regions

Ocean climate change is having profound biological effects in polar regions. Such change can also have far-reaching downstream effects in sub-polar regions. This study documents an environmental relationship between High Arctic sea ice changes and mortality events of marine birds in Low Arctic coastal regions. During April 2007 and March 2009, hundreds of beached seabird carcasses and moribund seabirds were found along the east and northeast coasts of Newfoundland, Canada. These seabird “wrecks” (i.e. dead birds on beaches) coincided with a period of strong, persistent onshore winds and heavily-accumulated sea ice that blocked bays and trapped seabirds near beaches. Ninety-two percent of wreck seabirds were Thick-billed Murres (Uria lomvia). Body condition and demographic patterns of wreck murres were compared to Thick-billed Murres shot in the Newfoundland murre hunt. Average body and pectoral masses of wreck carcasses were 34% and 40% lighter (respectively) than shot murres, indicating that wreck birds had starved. The acute nature of each wreck suggested that starvation and associated hypothermia occurred within 2–3 days. In 2007, first-winter murres (77%) dominated the wreck. In 2009, there were more adults (78%), mostly females (66%). These results suggest that spatial and temporal segregation in ages and sexes can play a role in differential survival when stochastic weather conditions affect discrete areas where these groups aggregate. In wreck years, southward movement of Arctic sea ice to Low Arctic latitudes was later and blocked bays longer than in most other years. These inshore conditions corresponded with recent climate-driven changes in High Arctic ice break-up and ice extent; coupled with local weather conditions, these ice conditions appeared to be the key environmental features that precipitated the ice-associated seabird wrecks in the Low Arctic region.     

Accumulation features of trace elements in mass-stranded harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the North Sea coast in 2002: the body distribution and association with growth and nutrition status

Body distribution and growth- and nutritional status-dependent accumulation of 21 trace elements were investigated in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) stranded in the North Sea coast in 2002. Higher concentrations and burdens of Mn, Se, Mo, Ag, Sn, Hg, and Bi in the liver, Cd in the kidney, As in the blubber, and Co, Sr, and Ba in the bone were observed. Significant positive correlations of hepatic Se, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sn, Hg, Tl, and Bi with standard body length were found, while significant negative relationships were detected for Mn, As, Rb, Sr, and Sb in the liver. Concentrations of Co, Se, Sr, Sn, Hg, and Bi in the liver, V, Sr, Ag, Sn, and Hg in the kidney, V, Mn, Co, Rb, Sr, Sn, Ba, and Pb in the blubber increased with decreasing blubber thickness of harbor seals, indicating enrichment of these elements in the target tissue by emaciation.     

Infant feeding in North East England: contested spaces of reproduction

Decisions about infant feeding are commonly viewed as an issue of personal choice made in the light of information about the benefits of breastfeeding. A pilot study of first-time parents' decisions and experiences in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, suggests that local cultural contexts, in particular how men and women are seen to be parenting in different spaces, have a profound influence on infant feeding.     

The role of population change in widening the mortality gap in Scotland

The social gradient in health and mortality has been acknowledged for some time and, more recently, there is some evidence that the gap between the richer and poorer is widening in Britain. Other studies have also shown that health and mortality outcomes are worse in places that are experiencing population decline and better in places that are growing. This analysis examines, first, whether there is a mortality gap between the least and most deprived people in Scotland, second, whether this gap has widened since the 1980s and, third, whether the gap can be explained by patterns of population change. Our results demonstrate that the widening mortality gap in Scotland cannot be explained simply as an artefact of population change, even though it is widening most in those places that are experiencing population decline. This type of research is made possible by the reliable denominator population information provided in the 1981 and 2001 censuses.     

Timing and duration of growth hiatuses in mid Holocene massive Porites corals from the northern South China Sea

Growth hiatuses in massive corals are usually indicative of past ecological or environmental stresses. Among 37 fossil Porites colonies surveyed from the reef flat of Dadonghai fringing reef at Sanya, Hainan Island, northern South China Sea, seven of them were found to show clear evidence of past mortality, representing a population of ～19%. Among these samples, two of them (SYO‐13 and SYO‐28) display clear growth hiatuses reflecting mortality followed by subsequent recruitment, and five others exhibit a well‐preserved mortality surface and no subsequent recruitment. The growth hiatuses were dated using high‐precision thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U‐series techniques. The age results suggest all the dated corals formed and died in the mid Holocene. Multiple dates below the growth hiatuses suggest that SYO‐13 and SYO‐28 died at 6298 ± 11 and 6929 ± 19 a BP (i.e. years before AD 1950), respectively. Multiple dates above the growth hiatuses indicate that growth in SYO‐13 and SYO‐28 resumed at 6257 ± 14 and 6898 ± 20 a BP, respectively. The calculated durations of growth hiatuses are therefore 41 ± 18 a for SYO‐13 and 31 ± 28 a for SYO‐28, respectively, implying growth resumed within decades after the mortality events. U‐series dating of four other samples with dead heads suggests that they died at 6035 ± 53, 6059 ± 23, 6127 ± 22 and 6474 ± 24 a BP, respectively. In addition, using solution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP‐MS), monthly resolution Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios were determined for the annual growth bands below and above the growth hiatuses for three of the dated samples. The Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca profiles indicate that the three corals probably died in different seasons (from spring to autumn), and the mortality appears to be unrelated to anomalous sea surface temperature‐induced bleaching. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.