江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。     

Ecological status of seagrass ecosystems: An uncertainty analysis of the meadow classification based on the Posidonia oceanica multivariate index (POMI)

Quantifying the uncertainty associated with monitoring protocols is essential to prevent the misclassification of ecological status and to improve sampling design. We assessed the Posidonia oceanica multivariate index (POMI) bio-monitoring program for its robustness in classifying the ecological status of coastal waters within the Water Framework Directive. We used a 7-year data set covering 30 sites along 500 km of the Catalonian coastline to examine which version of POMI (14 or 9 metrics) maximises precision in classifying the ecological status of meadows. Five factors (zones within a site, sites within a water body, depth, years and surveyors) that potentially generate classification uncertainty were examined in detail. Of these, depth was a major source of uncertainty, while all the remaining spatial and temporal factors displayed low variability. POMI 9 matched POMI 14 in all factors, and could effectively replace it in future monitoring programs.     

An indicator-based adaptive management framework and its development for data-limited fisheries in Belize

Decisions regarding the selection and implementation of management strategies that constrain fishing pressure can be among the most difficult choices that fisheries managers and stakeholders must make. These types of decisions often need to be confronted in a data-limited context, where few if any management measures are currently in place or fisheries are managed independent of adequate scientific advice. This situation can sometimes create a high risk of overfishing and potential loss of economic and social benefits. To address this situation, simple model-free indicator-based frameworks have the potential to be effective decision-making platforms for fisheries where quantitative estimates of biomass and fishing mortality based reference points are lacking. In this paper, a multi-indicator framework is developed that enables decision-makers to proceed with management decisions in data-limited situations. Model-free indicators are calculated using trends in observed data, rather than stock assessment derived estimates of biomass and fishing mortality. The framework developed is adaptive so that adjustments to catch or effort are recursive and can respond to changing environments, socioeconomic conditions, and fishing practices. Using stakeholder-defined objectives as a foundation, indicators and reference points of fishery performance are chosen that can be evaluated easily by undertaking analyses of available data. Indicators from multiple data streams are used so that uncertainty in one indicator can be hedged through careful interpretation and corroboration of information from alternative indicators. During the adaptive management cycle, managers and stakeholders evaluate each indicator against the associated reference points to determine performance measures, interpret the results using scientific and local knowledge, and adjust fishery management tactics accordingly using pre-defined harvest control rules. The framework facilitates the interpretation of situations in which performance measures suggest divergent stock abundance or productivity levels. A case study is presented on this framework's development for conch and lobster fisheries of Belize.     

GY-15型全液压动力头工程钻机的研制

GY-15型全液压动力头工程钻机是我所根据市场需求,结合自己多年研制全液压动力头钻机的优势开发的一种新型基础桩钻孔设备,本文着重对该钻机的结构特点、试验情况、主要技术参数等作了简要的介绍.     

基于动态因子的区域生态安全评价——以河北省万全县为例

本文以河北省万全县为例, 探索在GIS 和RS 技术支持下进行区域生态安全综合评价的 方法。数据包括1992 年8 月的TM影像、2002 年8 月的ETM+和SPOT 影像、1∶5 万DEM等; 选取 植被指数变化、土地利用类型变化和土壤有机质含量变化三类动态评价因子; 采用综合指数法构 建了基于生态退化的动态评价模型; 应用最小二乘原理客观地计算出了模型中各指标的权重; 并最终在ArcGIS 9.0/Spatial Analyst 模块中生成了生态安全评价图, 使模型得以实现。结果表明 该县南部河川区生态安全要优于中部丘陵区和北部山区; 相对不安全区域占到全县总面积的 50.1%, 虽然不安全区域总体分布较为散落, 但在北部和中部相对集中; 总体生态安全评价值为 2.3, 标志着本地区的生态安全级别较低, 应引起当地政府的高度重视。另外, 采用动态评价因子, 比采用静态评价因子具有一定优势; 采用最小二乘原理计算模型中权重系数的方法比较实用和 科学, 降低了人为影响因素, 也可以避免主观判断产生的错误, 为评价模型中权重系数的确定提 供了一种新的方法和选择。     

Regional comprehensive assessment on environment-health of China

The aim of the study was to assess the environment-health development in different regions of China. 175 indicators, such as average life expectancy at birth, emission intensity of waste gas, GDP etc. were chosen to describe various aspects of the environment, health and development of China. Of all the indicators, life expectancy can sufficiently reflect health situation of population. Consequently, life expectancy was identified as key indicator, and 42 out of 175 indicators were selected for establishing the environment-health indicator framework with three grades of integrative indices to assess the development of environment-health of China. Based on the hierarchical relation between various grades of indices, the comprehensive environment-health index was calculated and contributed to classify the environment-health situation of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China which were divided into five grades by four predefined limits. Comprehensive assessment indicates that the environment-health situation of the eastern and coastal areas is superior to that of inland which is the western regions with underdeveloped economy and rigorous natural condition. Especially, the Qinghai-Tibet and Yunnan-Guizhou plateaus in southwestern China are most vulnerable in the environment and population health. These fit in with the pattern of national socio-economic development, which fully shows that socio-economic context plays a dominant role in the improvement of environment-health in China.     

Daily variability of river concentrations and fluxes: indicators based on the segmentation of the rating curve

The variability of water chemistry on a daily scale is rarely addressed due to the lack of records. Appropriate tools, such as typologies and dimensionless indicators, which permit comparisons between stations and between river materials, are missing. Such tools are developed here for daily concentrations (C), specific fluxes or yields (Y) and specific river flow (q). The data set includes 128 long‐term daily records, for suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved and total nutrients, totalling 1236 years of records. These 86 river basins (10³–10⁶ km²) cover a wide range of environmental conditions in semi‐arid and temperate regions. The segmentation—truncation of C–q rating curves into two parts at median flows (q₅₀) generates two exponents (b_50inf and b_50sup) that are different for 66% of the analysed rating curves. After segmentation, the analysis of records results in the definition of nine major C–q types combining concentrating, diluting or stable patterns, showing inflexions, chevron and U shapes. SPM and TDS are preferentially distributed among a few types, while dissolved and total nutrients are more widely distributed. Four dimensionless indicators of daily variability combine median (C₅₀, Y₅₀), extreme (C₉₉, Y₉₉) and flow‐weighted (C*, Y*) concentrations and yields (e.g. C₉₉/C₅₀, Y*/Y₅₀). They vary over two to four orders of magnitude in the analysed records, discriminating stations and river material. A second set of four indicators of relative variability [e.g. (Y*/Y₅₀)/(q*/q₅₀)], takes into account the daily flow variability, as expressed by q*/q₅₀ and q₉₉/q₅₀, which also vary over multiple orders of magnitude. The truncated exponent b_50sup is used to describe fluxes at higher flows accounting for 75% (TDS) to 97% (SPM) of interannual fluxes. It ranges from ? 0·61 to + 1·86 in the database. It can be regarded as the key amplificator (positive b_50sup) or reductor (negative b_50sup) of concentrations or yields variability. C₅₀, Y₅₀, b_50sup can also be estimated in discrete surveys, which provides a new perspective for quantifying and mapping water quality variability at daily scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

吐鲁番盆地冬季气温变化及特色林果冬季冻害指标分析

利用吐鲁番东坎农业气象试验站和鄯善气象站近52a（1960-2011年）冬季逐日资料,分析入冬期、冬季平均气温、极端最低气温、低温日数、负积温变化特征,以及特色林果葡萄、红枣冻害发生年最低气温的变化特征,探讨冬季气温变化与冻害发生的关系,总结冻害成灾指标,为防止果树冻害提供理论依据。分析结果表明：吐鲁番盆地冬季平均气温和最低气温呈上升趋势,入冬期偏晚,冬季结束时间提早,冬季持续日数缩短;冬季气温在1985年发生突变,存在7a的周期变化。在无稳定积雪的情况下,最低气温负积温较历年平均值低180．0℃以上,日最低气温≤-18．0℃持续15d以上,且日最低气温连续≤-20．0℃持续5d以上,休眠期的红枣、杏树花芽会发生中度冻害;最低气温负积温较常年低200．0℃以上,日最低气温≤-20．0℃持续7d以上,且日最低气温≤-21．0℃持续5d以上,红枣、杏树及无积雪、覆土厚度〈30cm的葡萄会发生严重冻害。