特征驱动下区实体匹配指标自适应融合技术

空间实体匹配过程中多个指标的融合问题是影响匹配效果的关键问题之一。本文针对这一问题,以区实体为例提出了一套基于范例库的解决方案。首先提取出影响实体匹配的数据特征因子并确定了量化方法,其次选取典型的匹配指标,接下来通过建立指标权值范例库确定各指标权值,最后根据权值和数据特征因子调整匹配过程。该方法使得数据具有学习能力,达到了指标权值的自适应性的目标。实验表明该方法可行,并且可以提升空间实体匹配算法的效率、准确度和智能化程度。     

环鄱阳湖区农家菜地土壤重金属风险评价及来源分析

通过评价环鄱阳湖区10个县农家菜地土壤样品重金属的潜在生态风险,分析其与9个社会经济指标间的灰色关联度来探讨重金属的污染来源。结果显示,鄱阳湖区各菜地土壤中Cd的超标情况最严重,超标率达到90%,除部分地区Cu超标外,其余重金属均未超标。鄱阳湖区农家菜地土壤达到轻微生态风险,工业较发达地区重金属生态风险较大于工业落后地区,工业发展情况对湖区的空间污染分异有较大影响。蔬菜产量、工业发展情况、城镇化率、交通业发展情况和菜地土壤不同种重金属具有较高关联度,而地区生产总值、农药使用量对各种重金属含量的影响最弱。     

Assessing physical vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology

Globally, many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. Indicator-based vulnerability approaches are flexible and can be adjusted to the different hazards as well as to specific user needs. In this paper, an indicator-based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. The resulting multi-hazard version of the PTVA consists of four steps: the identification of the study area and relevant hazards as well as the acquisition of hazard information, the determination of vulnerability indicators and collection of data, the weighting of factors and vulnerability assessment and finally, the consideration of hazard interactions. After the introduction of the newly developed methodology a pilot application is carried out in the Faucon municipality located in the Barcelonnette basin, Southern French Alps. In this case study the vulnerability of buildings to debris flows, shallow landslides and river flooding for emergency planning and for general risk reduction purposes is assessed. The implementation of the methodology leads to reasonable results indicating the vulnerable buildings and supporting the priority setting of different end-users according to their objectives. The constraints of the presented methodology are: a) the fact that the method is not hazard-intensity specific, thus, vulnerability is measured in a rather qualitative and relative way and b) the high amount of data required for its performance. However, the advantage is that it is a flexible method which can be applied for the vulnerability analysis in a multi-hazard context but also it can be adjusted to the user-specific needs to support decision-making.     

豆荚状铬铁矿床成矿地球化学指标对比和成矿作用讨论

豆荚状铬铁矿主要赋存于地幔橄榄岩中,与方辉橄榄岩密切相关。在全球的分布与蛇绿岩带分布基本一致,但并非所有蛇绿岩体都赋存有铬铁矿,且其中赋存的铬铁矿体规模和分布都是很不规律的。我们对比研究了国内外9个含铬矿和4个不含铬矿蛇绿岩中地幔橄榄岩的地球化学组成,认为含铬矿地幔橄榄岩具有全岩低含量的CaO(<1.91%)和Al_2O_3(<1.76%)、方辉橄榄岩轻稀土元素富集,橄榄石高Fo值(>90),斜方辉石低Al_2O_3含量(<3.8%)以及副矿物铬尖晶石高Cr/Fe值(>1.5)等特征,可以作为该蛇绿岩体含矿评价的地球化学指标。通过这些指标可知豆荚状铬铁矿床是较高程度部分熔融和地幔交代作用的共同结果,结合前人提出的铬铁矿成矿模式,对铬铁矿的成矿过程有了进一步的认识。     

城市创意产业空间动态集聚演化的计算与可视优化方法

基于人文地理视角下的城市创意产业图像可视化分析对城市深层次空间综合和区域创新发展具有重大意义。但Swarm群智能动态时空建模难以满足创意产业空间集聚的可视化发展。本文研究目标是,从城市区域创意产业空间聚类影响因素指标出发,创新性地提出区域空间动态集聚轨迹算法（Density-Based Interest Spatial Clustering of Path,DBICP）,并与计算机浏览器共建聚类可视化图像,为城市管理提供决策依据。首先,根据影响因素指标体系,利用2014—2018年空间卡口流量数据和产业指标数据进行预处理,构建空间标准聚类算法DBSCAN。然后,对其进行聚类密度分级优化形成全新DBICP算法并得出初步轨迹图像。最后,通过源码转译实现了浏览器界面下空间动态集聚轨迹图像的输出。结果表明：以上海市为例,普陀区、浦东新区、徐汇地区的创意产业空间分布形成了3种不同的聚类模式,并相应提出了分摊、均布、虹吸的管控策略。此方法克服了传统图像的聚类分级和轨迹测量的缺失,可以有效地从指标数据中发现图像轨迹聚类信息,体现了地理信息科学和人文社会学科的交叉融合。也为大数据动态图像的集聚方法提供了全新视角和借鉴价值。     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。     

基于综合指标法的中国生态系统服务保护有效性评价研究

将生态系统服务保护纳入到传统的以保护区为基础的自然保护之中是生态保护研究的新领域。利用综合指标方法,分析了中国从2000-2010年的4种生态系统服务时空变化特征;并对中国的七大生态保护和恢复区域的服务空间保护成效进行评价,提出了国家尺度上的生态系统服务保护优先性分级。主要结论为：① 中国的生态系统服务自西北向东南逐渐增加,显著增加区主要分布在黄土高原地区,显著减少区主要分布在东北及华北地区。黄土高原的生态系统服务提高主要是农田向草地和林地、草地向林地的转换引的;华北地区的降低主要是耕地的减少以及人工用地的增加引起的;东北地区是由于林地向耕地草地、耕地向湿地与人工用地的转换引起的。② 七大生态保护和恢复区的生态系统服务均为增加趋势而且显著增加面积大于减少面积;显著增加面积最大的为三北防护林工程区、最小的为重点生态功能区;显著减少最大为重要生态功能区、最小的为三北防护林工程区。而且,对服务的保护成效在重要生态功能区最高,其次为天然林保护工程区,其余区域均小于全国平均水平。③ 提出的生态系统服务保护优先性等级中,极高级别占到了国土面积的26.18%,保护的生态系统服务量占到全国总量的64.19%,保护成效为全国平均水平的2.47倍。     

Desertification in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia

The problem of land degradation in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia is not a new phenomenon, but during the last decade it has grown to be a serious threat to the delicate desert ecosystems, and also to the urban and industrial areas, due to an increase in sand movement. The area under investigation is situated on the Gulf coast north of Jubail and is approximately 20 km in width centered along the coastline. The total area is almost 1000 km². Eight vegetation types were classified according to the dominant and co-dominant species. A comparative study of the vegetation in a fenced, non-grazed area and in an open grazed area showed that the impact of grazing and recreational activities have largely reduced the value of the rangelands. The reduction in species diversity and density leads to an increase in wind and sand dynamics. Exposed roots, giant ripples, changes in the extension of inland sabkhas and new active dunes could be observed in many parts of the study area. It could be proved that most inland sabkhas in the area are pure deflational features with considerable dynamic due to the reduction in vegetation cover during the recent years. The monitoring of vegetation density was carried out during helicopter flights with the help of GPS and a video camera. Image processing on a personal computer allowed accurate calculations of vegetation density. Observations on active dune fields in the area showed that the size of the dune fields almost doubled in 15 months. Tests in small enclosures showed that there is a potential for natural recovery even in severely damaged areas. In just one year without grazing and with average precipitation there is a significant difference in vegetation cover. Strict grazing management and camping regulations are required to prevent further degradation and allow the recovery of damaged ecosystems. Community involvement and education is necessary for the development of an understanding of regulations and the need for preservation.     

白洋淀浮游植物群落及其与环境因子的典范对应分析

在对湖泊生态系统健康评价研究的基础上,提出用营养状态-综合指数法（TSI-CI）对西湖进行生态系统健康评价．首先选用Chl．a、SD、TP和TN四个指标用相关加权指数法进行营养状态评价,再选择物化和生物指标无量纲化处理后计算综合指数进行综合评价．结果表明：西湖生态系统健康状况与营养状态水平的变化趋势是一致的,1—3月健康状况相对较好,7-9月相对较差．该结果客观反映了西湖的实际情况,为西湖水质管理提供科学依据。