湖南晚稻洪涝过程等级指标构建与演变特征

以湖南晚稻为研究对象,基于1961—2010年双季晚稻种植区68个气象站的降水资料、17个农业气象观测站的生育期观测资料,采用历史灾情反演方法,构建晚稻大田生长期3个生育时段、3个洪涝等级的洪涝灾害样本125个,应用Q-Q图拟合、W检验和t分布区间估计方法,计算晚稻分生育期（移栽-分蘖期、拔节-孕穗期、抽穗-成熟期）不同洪涝致灾等级（轻、中、重）的过程降水量临界值,构建晚稻洪涝过程等级指标,并进行独立样本验证检验;应用M-K检验等方法分析1961—2010年湖南晚稻洪涝的时空演变特征。结果表明:指标验证与历史记录有较高一致性;同一洪涝等级的指标阈值从大到小依次为抽穗-成熟期、拔节-孕穗期、移栽-分蘖期;20世纪60年代和90年代是湖南晚稻洪涝发生最严重的年代,总洪涝次数在1994年发生突变;晚稻轻涝在抽穗-成熟期发生率最高,中涝和重涝在拔节-孕穗期发生率最高;总洪涝的高发地区位于郴州、岳阳地区;随年代推移,晚稻各等级洪涝和总洪涝高发区均呈现由北向南的变化。     

Validating RAPFISH sustainability indicators: Focus on multi-disciplinary aspects of Indian marine fisheries

In determining the importance of fisheries sustainability indicators, stakeholders’ interest plays a defining role in the fisheries management practices. The indicator based tools such as RAPFISH have been available for sustainability assessment of fishery resources. In the present study, procedures to validate the pre-selected RAPFISH, which is a multidisciplinary indicator based evaluation tool for measuring the sustainability of fishery resources, are applied. The sustainability indicators were subjected to validation process based on feedback from resource owners, users and experts, using Multi-Criteria Analyses such as Weighted Sum Model and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Based on the validation results, suggestions have been made to improve methodology and its effective application in practice. This paper demonstrates RAPFISH as a potentially effective multidisciplinary tool for evaluation of sustainability of fishery resources.     

Land cover changed object detection in remote sensing data with medium spatial resolution

Land cover change information is crucial to analyse the process and the change patterns of environments and ecological systems. Recent studies have incorporated object-based image analysis for its ability to generate meaningful geographical objects into studies of change detection. In this research, we developed a systematic methodology to realise multi-type land cover changed object detection with medium spatial resolution remote sensing images in Beijing, China. Optimum index factor (OIF) was applied to determine the best change indicators and the chi-square transformation was carried out to determine the change threshold of the 4 classes of changed object. The clustering change vectors in the feature space were proposed to discriminate the change types. According to the accuracy assessment, the overall accuracy of changed/unchanged object detection was approximately 93.9% with an overall kappa of 0.824, and the change type discrimination also achieved an overall accuracy of 81.67%, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

对荒漠化几个理论问题的初步探讨

讨论了荒漠化的概念和内涵,评价指标体系及发生机制等问题,认为联合图《防治荒漠化公约》中的荒漠化定义揭示了各类型荒漠化的共同本质,是较为科学和适用的定义,荒漠化评价指标的“基准”荒漠化气候类型及评价的空间尺度是建立荒漠化评价指标体系的关键,荒漠化的发生机制是荒漠化理论的核心,它涉及到荒漠化的反馈关系,荒漠化的非平衡过程及荒漠化与土地系统复杂性的关系,土地利用／土地覆被变化是荒漠化的驱动因素之一。     

潮汐盐沼环境特点及高分辨率海面变化有孔虫标尺

潮汐盐沼是海洋边缘海环境的最边缘部分,是海陆过渡的真正边界。盐沼环境因素具明显的垂直分带性,各环境参数变化是典型的海洋或陆地不可相比的,盐沼坡度平缓,由海向陆的环境变化在这里分异清楚;沉积中垂向变化平面上得到极大的放大等。据国外研究,盐沼环境控制着有孔虫的特征和分布,利于盐沼有孔虫的垂直分带恢复古海平面变化,精确到±２０ｃｍ,甚至±５ｃｍ,这在海面变化、环境演变、全球变化研究上有重要意义。     

太湖全新世沉积物的古盐度指标及其环境意义

沉积物中的Ｃａ／（Ｆｅ＋Ｃａ）比值和硼含量随水体含盐度的高低而相应增减，它们都是较好的古盐度指标。本文对太湖全新世的沉积物进行了古盐度指标的分析。并与现代湖泊和海洋沉积物作了对比，结果反映东太湖为陆相沉积环境，而西太湖则主要为海相沉积环境。此结论与古生物化石的结论一致，从而证明了太湖地区于全新世期间经历了大规模的海侵，并形成海湾－湖环境。同时也证明了这些古盐度指标是行之有效的。     

基于PSR框架的土地质量指标体系研究进展与展望

基于"压力-状态-响应(Press-State-Response,PSR)"模式的土地质量指标体系是国际土地科学研究的热点问题。我国经济的快速增长和土地退化的严峻形势要求建立能够衡量土地质量变化的指标体系。介绍了基于PSR框架的土地质量指标体系的来源、基本概念、评价框架和研究计划。介绍了国际土地质量指标研究计划中提出的养分平衡、产量差额、农业土地利用强度与利用多样性、土地覆被、土壤质量、土地退化、农业生物多样性、水质量、林地质量、牧草地质量、土地污染等11项土地质量指标。在总结、分析国内外土地质量指标体系研究的最新进展和研究不足基础上,提出未来我国有关部门在土地质量方面的研究趋势与建议。     

Refinement Indicators for Optimal Selection of Geostatistical Realizations Using the Gradual Deformation Method

In the analysis of petroleum reservoirs, one of the most challenging problems is to use inverse theory in the search for an optimal parameterization of the reservoir. Generally, scientists approach this problem by computing a sensitivity matrix and then perform a singular value decomposition in order to determine the number of degrees of freedom i.e. the number of independent parameters necessary to specify the configuration of the system. Here we propose a complementary approach: it uses the concept of refinement indicators to select those degrees which have the greatest sensitivity to an objective function quantifying the mismatch between measured and simulated data. We apply this approach to the problem of data integration for petrophysical reservoir charaterization where geoscientists are currently working with multimillion cell geological models. Data integration may be performed by gradually deforming (by a linear combination) a set of these multimillion grid geostatistical realizations during the optimization process. The inversion parameters are then reduced to the number of coefficients of this linear combination. However, there is an infinity of geostatistical realizations to choose from which may not be efficient regarding operational constraints. Following our new approach, we are able through a single objective function evaluation to compute refinement indicators that indicate which realizations might improve the iterative geological model in a significant way. This computation is extremely fast as it implies a single gradient computation through the adjoint state approach and dot products. Using only the most sensitive realizations from a given set, we are able to resolve quicker the optimization problem case. We applied this methodology to the integration of interference test data into 3D geostatistical models.     

区域生态系统健康评价指标体系构架——以广东省生态系统健康评价为例

探讨了区域生态系统健康指标选择原则。从区域的河流和陆地两方面确定指标体系,根据生态系统层次性,采用多目标多层次模糊优选模型。以广东省为例,在广东省分生态小区的基础上,对各区的生态环境进行了评价与比较排序,通过综合优属度给出了生态系统健康状态。