Multiple-occurrence regional landslide events in New Zealand: Hazard management issues

Landsliding in New Zealand most commonly occurs in the form of multiple-occurrence landslide events, simultaneously involving thousands to ten thousands of landslides over areas extending up to 20,000 km². The scale of these events, together with their multiple-hazard character, provide a unique set of management issues that stretch the capabilities of available emergency management services. Several measures for characterising the magnitude and impact potential of these events are presented and compared. While the median density of landsliding is approximately 30 landslides/km², over 100 landslides/km² have been recorded in some events. Specific soil displacement volumes vary widely between events—New Zealand events yield a median value of approximately 140 m³/ha. Measured Ratios of runout length to scar length are commonly about 3:1. However, comparison between events is constrained by lack of standardisation in methods of measurement and recording. Agricultural production loss, damage to road and rail infrastructure and increased flooding are the main consequences of these events. Treatment options involve loss sharing, resource management legislation, and various forms of bio-engineering.     

Multiple Flux Rope Events at the High-Latitude Magnetopause: Cluster/Rapid Observation on 26 January, 2001

Cluster measurements of the cusp and high latitude magnetopause boundary on 26 January, 2001 confirm that the cusp is a dynamic region full of energetic charged particles and turbulence. An energetic ion layer at high-latitudes beyond and adjacent to the duskside magnetopause exists when the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has a southward orientation. Multiple energetic ion flux bursts were observed in the energetic ion layer. Each energetic ion flux burst was closely related to a magnetic flux rope. The axes of the flux ropes lie in the direction pointing duskward/tailward and somewhat upward. An intense axis-aligned current flows inside the ropes, with the current density reaching ∼10⁻⁸ A/m². The main components of the energetic ions are protons, helium and CNO ions, which originate from the magnetosphere, flowing out into the magnetosheath along the axis of the flux ropes. The velocity of the magnetosheath thermal plasma relative to the deHoffman-Teller (DHT) frame is found to be basically along the axis of the flux ropes also, but towards the magnetosphere. These flux ropes seem to be produced somewhere away via magnetic reconnection and move at similar DHT velocities passing over the spacecraft. These observations further confirm that the high-latitude magnetopause boundary region plays an important role in the solar wind-magnetopause coupling.     

吉辽徐淮地区新元古代地层对比格架

根据层序地层学最大海泛,Sr、C同位素测年,地质事件,生物化石和古地磁资料对吉辽徐淮地区新元古代地层进行了时代界定和对比。研究表明吉辽徐淮地区震旦纪海平面变化趋势基本一致,旋回层序基本上可以对比,其沉积主体除辽南兴民村组和淮北史家组的2个数据小于750Ma之外,相互之间的Sr、C同位素比值对比性很好,沉积时限在750—860Ma之间,为北方青白口系之后的沉积。吉南的八道江组、辽南的十三里台组和徐淮的魏集组可作为三地的对比标志,并提出了新的地层对比方案。     

Comparison of regional index flood estimation procedures based on the extreme value type I distribution

 A comparison of different methods for estimating T-year events is presented, all based on the Extreme Value Type I distribution. Series of annual maximum flood from ten gauging stations at the New Zealand South Island have been used. Different methods of predicting the 100-year event and the connected uncertainty have been applied: At-site estimation and regional index-flood estimation with and without accounting for intersite correlation using either the method of moments or the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation. Furthermore, estimation at ungauged sites were considered applying either a log-linear relationship between at-site mean annual flood and catchment characteristics or a direct log-linear relationship between 100-year events and catchment characteristics. Comparison of the results shows that the existence of at-site measurements significantly diminishes the prediction uncertainty and that the presence of intersite correlation tends to increase the uncertainty. A simulation study revealed that in regional index-flood estimation the method of probability weighted moments is preferable to method of moment estimation with regard to bias and RMSE.     

地球自转与El Nio——海气耦合理论

从低纬的海气耦合的浅水模式方程组出发 ,运用正交模和特殊函数的方法进一步讨论地球自转速率变化对海气耦合系统的影响 .研究表明 :地球自转速率的变化通过海气耦合一方面使大气和海洋的Kelvin波和Rossby波的移动及稳定性发生变化 ,另一方面使纬向风、洋流和海表温度发生变化 .特别是在地球自转减慢时 ,通过海气耦合 ,出现纬向风和洋流异常和大洋东部海表温度增加 ,从而导致引起全球气候异常的ElNi no现象     

A computational approach for the analysis of changes in polygon distributions

 This paper develops a computational method for analyzing changes in polygon distributions. Unmovable polygons that change discontinuously without explicit functional linkage information are discussed. Six types of primitive events are used to describe the change: 1) generation, 2) disappearance, 3) expansion, 4) shrinkage, 5) union, and 6) division. The change of polygon distributions is decomposed into a combination of these events. A computational procedure for deducing a set of events from polygon distributions of two times is proposed. The method is applied to the analysis of the spatial competition between the major and small chains of convenience stores in Tokyo, Japan. Some empirical findings are shown. Received: 3 August 2000 / Accepted: 6 February 2001     

Research on the multifractal characteristics of the temporal—spatial distribution of earthquakes over New Zealand area

Using the Hill estimator,general multifractal characteristics of events in the New Zealand area have been dis-cussed.Results show that the spatial distribution of shallow events has apparent clustering characteristics,inde-pendent of the threshold magnitude;but for deep events these characteristics are not clear.While the time interval distribution has obvious clustering characteristics both for deep and shallow events,although with a different scal-ing range,the Hill estimates tend to indicate that the time interval distribution has a unifractal rather than a multi-fractal nature.All above reveal that the seismicity nature for shallow and deepevents is apparently different.     

两类El一Nino事件对佛山气候影响的差异

利用佛山市1957年一2000年的气候资料，初步探讨了佛山市气候因子与两类El-Nino事件的关系。研究表明：两类El-Nino事件对佛山市气候的影响存在明显的差异。第1类El-Nino事件使降水量和暴雨日数偏少，登陆我国的热带气旋(不含热带低压)数量偏少，初次登陆时间偏迟，末次登陆时间偏早；第Ⅱ类使降水量和暴雨日数偏多，但对应年份的热带气旋无明显异常。第1类El-N5no事件对佛山市气温变化影响不大；第Ⅱ类El-Nino事件则有明显影响，它使夏季偏凉、冬季偏暖。     

黄河下游花园口河段洪水涨落过程中河床横断面形态的调整

利用黄河下游1950-1985年间218场洪水资料,讨论了黄河下游花园口河段洪水起涨和回落过程中河床形态调整的不同过程.在洪水起涨阶段,花园口河段河床宽深比以增大为主,且洪水最大含沙量越大,宽深比增大的幅度越大,洪峰增幅比在3以下时,宽深比随最大含沙量的增大而增大,洪峰增幅比在3以上时,呈随含沙量的增大而减小的趋势.在洪水回落阶段,宽深比的变化方向则相反.在含沙量较小时,河床宽深比的减小主要发生在洪水起涨阶段,在含沙量很大时,河床宽深比的减小主要发生在洪水回落阶段.     

通化二密铜矿周边中生代火山岩系基本特征及找矿方向

通化地区是吉林省中生代火山岩广泛发育的地区之一,伴随着火山作用形成的矿产资源十分丰富,尤以贵金属和多金属矿产居多,二密铜矿即是其中典型矿床之一,其周边地区相关火山岩系可划分为三期火山事件,并具有钙碱性向碱性火山岩系演化特点。事实上整个火山作用过程亦是一个成矿过程,但晚期火山事件的成矿作用应引起重视,是进一步找矿的主要方向之一。