A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古自治区重要矿种成矿规律综述

2007~2013年开展的内蒙古矿产资源潜力评价项目,对铁、铜、铅锌、金、银、钨、钼、铬、镍等重要矿种进行了区域成矿规律总结,为矿产资源潜力评价提供了基础资料。文章即是对该项工作部分成果的概括总结。主要进展包括:在全国Ⅲ级成矿区带划分的基础上,首次进行了覆盖全自治区的Ⅳ级成矿亚带的划分,共划分出34个Ⅳ级成矿亚带;对内蒙古铁、铜等11个重要矿种的主要矿床类型及成矿特征进行了概述,对其时空分布规律做了归纳,认为全区70%以上的矿床数量和资源储量均集中在Ⅲ_5、Ⅲ_6、Ⅲ_8、Ⅲ_10和Ⅲ_11五个成矿区带。此外,不同矿种甚至同一矿种,由于成矿地质背景的差异,在不同的三级区带中的分布也不一样。主要成矿期为元古宙和中生代,次为太古宙和晚古生代,不同矿种的重要成矿期也不完全相同。从区域演化的角度探讨了构造与成矿的关系,认为不同的构造演化阶段形成不同的矿床类型和不同矿种的矿床,其中,古大陆边缘裂谷带以白云鄂博式铁_稀土元素矿床为代表,而大兴安岭岩浆岩带则以产出与燕山期中酸性火山侵入杂岩有关的多金属矿产为特点。     

青海省祁漫塔格地区1∶5万水系沉积物测量衬值异常圈定实例

青海省祁漫塔格地区位于柴达木盆地西南缘,是青海省重要的铁多金属成矿基地之一。利用88442个野外采样点1∶5万水系沉积物测量数据,采用Geo Expl软件圈定了该地区的衬值异常。衬值是指各元素0.5 km×0.5 km网格化数据与其园域搜索半径5km、移动步长0.5km移动平均值的比值。选用自定义累频"90、95、98、100"确定了异常的外、中、内带。通过常规方法和衬值圈定的异常的对比,表明衬值异常能够削弱不同地质背景差异,使异常形态更为规整,浓集中心更为明显,并且可能发现新异常。     

时变参数灰色模型背景值重构及实现

针对时变参数灰色模型PGM(1,1)的背景值重构收敛速度及稳定性问题,该文运用积分的方法综合序列在Δt内不同变化趋势,导出背景值模型的准确表达式。实现了反映序列对新老信息偏爱程度的最优权值介于(0,1)内,且非不能越过某一阈值;给出了背景值重构模型最优解准确求取的具体算法步骤。基于MATLAB语言的实验结果表明:改进模型预测精度高,易于实现;所研究的带权灰色模型GM(1,n)背景值模型的重构及计算方法验证了PGM(1,1)模型重构及计算实现方法的有效性和实用性。     

Remote sensing and information value (IV) model for regional mapping of fluvial channels and topographic wetness in the Saudi Arabia

This study aims to map regions of near surface fluvial channels, mega-basins and topographic wetness in Saudi Arabia using remote sensing data and an information value (IV) model, which is a modified approach of weight of evidence. We used the new version of the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) to delineate the fluvial channels, mega-basin, and slope. These hydrological parameters were used to index the topographic wetness of each mega-basin in the region based on IV in a Geographic Information System. We validated our method using the Space Imaging Radar-C and Landsat 8 images and compared the textural features (fluvial channels) evident from SRTM digital elevation model and to determine whether these patterns were different. Our results revealed that the region is drained by nine tributaries and that the Err Rub Al Khali and Sahba mega-basins have the highest value of the IV and topographic wetness values; the Arran and coastal mega-basins have the lowest value of the IV and topographic wetness values. An integrated approach is timely and economically effective and can be applied throughout the arid and semi-arid regions to help hydrologists and urban developers.     

河元背地区绳索取心钻进泵压计算模型的建立与应用

泵压是反映金刚石绳索取心钻进时井内作业是否正常的重要参数。为了进一步研究泵压波动变化与实际钻进作业之间的关系,指导钻进工作的快速、安全开展,结合江西相山河元背地区CUSD2井实际泵压波动数据及相关钻进资料,建立了适用于本井的循环系统压力损失计算模型。对比分析模型计算的理论泵压与实际泵压的波动变化趋势,将模型应用于实际钻进,在此基础上预测后续地层的泵压波动区域范围,发现7 MPa的泵压安全值不再适用于后续地层钻进,调整设置泵压安全值为10 MPa,并利用邻井泵压波动数据进一步验证其可靠性。适当调整修正理论模型,使其可应用于河元背以及相山地区绳索取心钻进中,指导该地区钻探工作。     

Task-oriented information value measurement based on space-time prisms

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in the amount of information available from the Web and many other sources. Such an information deluge presents a challenge for individuals who have to identify useful information items to complete particular tasks in hand. Information value theory (IVT) from economics and artificial intelligence has provided some guidance on this issue. However, existing IVT studies often focus on monetary values, while ignoring the spatiotemporal properties which can play important roles in everyday tasks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for task-oriented information value measurement. This framework integrates IVT with the space-time prism from time geography and measures the value of information based on its impact on an individual’s space-time prisms and its capability of improving task planning. We develop and formalize this framework by extending the utility function from space-time accessibility studies and elaborate it using a simplified example from time geography. We conduct a simulation on a real-world transportation network using the proposed framework. Our research could be applied to improving information display on small-screen mobile devices (e.g., smartwatches) by assigning priorities to different information items.     

Student Perceptions of a Recreation Trail Assignment as a Valuable Learning Experience for Geography Undergraduates

Charging undergraduate geography students with the task of designing a recreational trail in their local community offers an engaging experiential opportunity with potential to advance geographic learning in a real-world setting. This article presents an assignment in which students were asked to develop a recreational trail proposal for an undeveloped local conservation area and the results of a survey that asked the students to reflect and report upon the educational value of this experience one year later. Results of the survey validated the assignment's lasting value to the students across the cognitive, psychomotor, and affective learning domains.     

基于多元对应分析的国家地质公园综合价值及分类

目前地质公园的分类难以针对具有多重价值属性的各类地质公园提出行之有效的分类管理模式。提出基于综合价值的国家地质公园分类模式,建立了国家地质公园综合价值评价指标,通过问卷调查与小组讨论获取了35个国家地质公园的量化综合价值评价指标数据,应用多元对应分析对量化数据进行统计处理,最后将35个国家地质公园分为禀赋型地质公园、生态型地质公园、成熟型地质公园、均衡型地质公园和发展型地质公园五大类,为国家地质公园分类管理提供依据。     

Protection of marine birds and turtles at St Brandon’s Rock,Indian Ocean,requires conservation of the entire atoll

A survey of seabirds and turtles at St Brandon’s Rock, 400 km north of Mauritius, was undertaken in 2010. We estimated that 1 084 191 seabirds comprising seven breeding species and excluding non-breeders were present at the archipelago and we counted 279 turtle tracks and nesting pits of green turtles Chelonia mydas. Hawksbill turtles Eretmochelys imbricata were also present. Analyses of 30 different islets that make up the atoll showed that the seabird species mostly partitioned their use of islets based on islet size, with four species preferring larger islets and two species preferring smaller islets. Alien species introduced historically are still present and other threats, such as shipwrecks, remain. We propose conservation and other measures that should adequately protect the birds, turtles and coral reef by treating the atoll as a system.