山东冬半年降水相态的温度特征统计分析

采用济南和青岛1999-2011年的降水、高空和地面观测资料,研究了山东冬半年降水相态与影响系统的关系及温度垂直变化特征,获得不同降水相态的温度预报指标.结果表明:(1)降水相态变化与影响系统有关,江淮气旋和回流形势产生的大雪以上强降雪存在雨雪转换,低槽冷锋、黄河气旋和切变线(低涡)多产生中雪以下直接降雪.(2)无相态变化的降雪过程一般发生在温度较低、垂直变化单一的条件下,850 hPa以下各层均有明显温度阈值.(3)有相态转换的降雪过程中,850和925 hPa的温度对于雨、雪、雨夹雪的识别没有明显指示性,1000 hPa以下的温度最为关键,将925 hPa以下各层与地面的温度结合起来判别相态,较使用单一特性层温度更为可靠;冰粒区别于其他降水类型,在温度场上的显著特征为700 hPa的温度较高.(4)0℃层高度可用于雨雪转换指标:降雨时0℃层高于925 hPa或在925 hPa上下,当0℃层的高度降至1000 hPa上下时转为降雪.(5)雨夹雪和冰粒发生在有雨雪相态转换的降水过程中,为过渡形态,不会单独出现.     

Modeling study of seasonal variation of the pelagic-benthic ecosystem characteristics of the Bohai Sea

Based on experiment data of the Sino-German comprehensive investigations in the Bohai Sea in 1998 and 1999, a simple coupled pelagic-benthic ecosystem multi-box model is used to simulate the ecosystem seasonal variation. The pelagic sub-model consists of seven state variables： phytoplankton, zooplankton, TIN, TIP, DOC, POC and dissolved oxygen （DO）. The benthic sub-model includes macro-benthos, meiobenthos, bacteria, detritus, TIN and TIP in the sediment. Besides the effects of solar radiation, water temperature and the nutrient from sea bottom exudation, land-based inputs are considered. The impact of the advection terms between the boxes is also considered. Meanwhile, the effects of the micro- bial-loop are introduced with a simple parameterization. The seasonal variations and the horizontal distributions of the ecosystem state variables of the Bohai Sea are simulated. Compared with the observations, the results of the multi-box model are reasonable. The modeled results show that about 13% of the photosynthesis primary production goes to the main food loop, 20% transfers to the benthic domain, 44% is consumed by the respiration of phytoplankton, and the rest goes to DOC. Model results also show the importance of the microbial food loop in the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea, and its contribution to the annual zooplankton production can be 60%-64%.     

城市化对珠江三角洲强雷暴天气的可能影响

通过对2004年8月11日午后发生在珠江三角洲地区的一次强雷暴天气的高分辨数值模拟,研究了城市化发展可能对雷暴活动的影响问题,主要考察了与城市土地利用类型改变相关的“城市热岛”的形成和演变特征,城区粗糙度增大可能引起的低层辐合的增强过程,及其与雷暴发展强度变化的关系。结果表明:模拟的雷暴发展和演变过程与这一地区城市化的发展有密切的联系。引进了更加真实的关于珠江三角洲地区的土地利用类型资料之后,耦合了陆面模式Noah LSM的MM5模式可以更加成功地模拟出强雷暴天气的发展和演变过程。雷暴系统移经主要城市区后在珠江口西岸的增强过程与这一地区“城市热岛”的效应有关。中午时热岛开始形成于广州城区的上空,之后向南移动,范围扩大。另外,城区粗糙度增大引起的低层辐合增强可能在雷暴发展和演变过程中也起到了作用。模拟的与城市影响有关的低层辐合主要位于500 m以下的近地面层,开始时形成于城市的上风方向,并在下风方向增强, 由此引起的强烈上升运动有利于新的对流的启动和发展,促使雷暴强度增强。     

火山活动对气候的影响

重大的火山喷发对气候的影响表现为地面温度降低，由于火山喷发存在季节、纬度和强度的差异，因此喷发物的空间分布特征不同，对辐射的影响也不同，降温出现的时间和降温的幅度不一致。中高纬喷发的火山主要影响发生喷发的半球，而中低纬的喷发可影响到全球，且影响时间较长；不同季节的火山喷发后，高纬度的温度响应较低纬明显，夏季的温度响应较冬季明显。有关火山活动对降水的影响目前已有了一些研究，但由于降水序列中火山信号较弱，同时还有ENSO等其他因子的影响，客观地分辨出火山的影响较复杂，目前尚无一致结论。     

气候变化对中国南方稻区水稻产量影响的模拟和分析

采用了DSSAT作物模式和区域气候模式相连接,模拟分析了A2和B2气候变化情景对中国主要地区灌溉水稻产量的影响。气候变化情景采用了IPCC发布的SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)系列的最新温室气体排放情景,气候情景值采用区域气候模式PRECIS(Provide Regional Climates for Impact Studies)的模拟值。通过研究站点水稻对A2和B2增温梯度敏感性的分析表明:温度增加,水稻产量呈下降趋势,随着温度增加,产量下降幅度增大。且在同一增温水平下,在南方热带地区的昆明和海口,产量下降幅度大于其他站点。A2和B2的产量相对于基准年(1961~1990年)的变化分别为:气候变化对不同站点的年代际水稻平均产量表现了正面或负面的影响(A2情景下为2.3%~-10.2%,B2情景下为4.0%~-13.6%),在某一些站点,水稻高产年和低产年的概率明显增加,产量分布趋于两极化。     

Impact of land-use change on hydrological processes in the Maying River basin, China

Since the 1960s, dramatic changes have taken place in land-use patterns characterized by the persistent expansion of cultivated land and a continuous decrease in natural woodland and grassland in the arid inland river basins of China. It is very important to assess the effects of such land-use changes on the hydrological processes so vital for water resource management and sustainable development on the catchment scale. The Maying River catchment, a typical arid inland watershed located in the middle of the Hexi Corridor in northwest China, was the site chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land-use changes. The annual runoff, base flow, maximum peak flow, and typical seasonal runoff in both spring and autumn flood periods were selected as the variables in the hydrological processes. Statistical-trend analysis and curvilinear regression were utilized to detect the trends in hydrological variables while eliminating the climatic influence. The relationship between cultivated land-use and hydrological variables was analyzed based on four periods of land-use variation data collected since 1965. A runoff model was established composed of two factors, i.e., cultivated land use and precipitation. The impact of land use changes, especially in the large ar- eas of upstream woodland and grassland turned into cultivated lands since 1967, has resulted in a mean annual runoff decrease of 28.12%, a base flow decline of 35.32%, a drop in the maximum peak discharge of 35.77%, and mean discharge decreases in spring and autumn of 36.05% and 24.87% respectively, of which the contribution of cultivated land expansion to the influence of annual runoff amounts to 77%-80%, with the contribution to the influence of spring discharge being 73%-81%, and that to the influence of base flow reaching 62%-65%. Thus, a rational regulation policy of land use patterns is vitally important to the sustainable use of water resources and the proper development of the entire catchment.     

Unsteady soil erosion due to rainfall impact: a model of sediment sorting on the hillslope

A new method is presented for predicting sediment sorting associated with soil erosion by raindrop impact for non-equilibrium conditions. The form of soil erosion considered is that which results from raindrop impact in the presence of shallow overland flow itself where the flow is not capable of eroding sediment. The method specifically considers early time runoff and erosion when sediment leaving an eroding area is generally finer and thus may have a higher potential for transport of sorbed pollutants. The new mechanism described is the formation of a deposited layer on the soil surface, which is shown to lead to sediment sorting during an erosion event. The deposited layer is taken to have two roles in this process: to temporarily store sediment on the surface between successive trajectories, and to shield the underlying soil from erosive stresses. Equations describing the dynamics of the suspended sediment mixture and the deposited layer are developed. By integrating these equations over the length of eroding land element and over the duration of the erosion event, an event-based solution is proposed which predicts total sediment sorting over the event. This solution is shown to be consistent with experimentally observed trends in enrichment of fine sediment. Predictions using this approach are found to only partly explain measured enrichment for sets of experimental data for two quite different soils, but to be in poor agreement for an aridsol of dispersive character. It is concluded that the formation of the deposited layer is a significant mechanism in the enrichment of fine sediment and associated sorbed pollutants, but that processes in the dispersive soil are not as well described by the theory presented.     

贺兰山银川段不同重现期山洪灾害风险与影响区划研究

为评估贺兰山银川段山洪灾害风险程度及其影响,利用高分辨率数字高程模型(DEM)、行政区划、水系和自动气象站历史降水数据,以及居民点、学校、桥梁等社会经济信息资料,采用FloodArea模型模拟与ArcGIS空间叠加统计分析相结合的方法,分析研究了贺兰山银川段不同重现期山洪灾害风险分布特征,及其对人口、土地利用和国内生产总值(GDP)的影响。结果表明:(1)贺兰山银川段10～100 a一遇山洪灾害低、中、高风险区面积分别为109.5～276.3 km2、45.0～231.0 km2、13.4～204.3 km2,同一风险等级的山洪灾害区划面积随着重现期增大呈显著增大趋势。(2)贺兰山10 a和20 a一遇山洪灾害风险区主要位于海拔1 130～1 450 m的山洪沟及其两侧区域,50 a一遇山洪灾害风险区主要集中在山洪沟下游和山前海拔1 130～1 180 m的冲击扇区,100 a一遇山洪灾害风险区覆盖整个山前海拔1 120～1 350 m的区域和冲击扇区。随着重现期增大,贺兰山山洪灾害风险区具有向上游(下游)区域扩展较慢(更快)的显著特征。(3)银川市受贺兰山10 a、20 a、50 a...     

强震作用下崩塌滚石冲击耗能损伤演化分析

强震触发崩塌滚石冲击耗能损伤是防护工程设计的重要指标。为探索冲击过程中滚石耗能损伤演化过程,采用热力学定律分析了冲击过程中能量的传递与耗散,通过定义冲击耗能损伤因子D、Dmax,建立了滚石冲击耗能损伤理论模型与适用模型。结合工程实例,反算极限冲击力对模型进行论证与分析,提出模型的推广应用。结果表明：滚石冲击耗能损伤过程满足热力学第一定律,能量主要贡献于防护工程弹塑性势能的积聚,Dmax受滚石质量、弹性模量、抛射初速度、最大冲击力、有效作用面积等的影响;最大冲击力持续增加,极限冲击耗能损伤因子增大,达到线性函数与抛物线函数图像交点C（1031 kN,0.9965）时曲线出现拐点。模型推广得到广义范围下的冲击耗能损伤演化函数曲线,冲击耗能损伤全过程在损伤响应、损伤线性、损伤渐进三个阶段的临界位置出现2次损伤拐点;随滚石质量增加,最大冲击力增大,极限冲击耗能损伤因子曲线先呈抛物线减小,再呈线性增加,最后呈抛物线逐渐增加直到无限趋近于1。从能量角度定量分析其损伤本质,对探究滚石运动过程能量耗散机制及防护工程的设计具有重要意义。     

甘肃岷县浑水沟泥包砾成因机制及其灾害意义

2020年8月, 甘东南地区持续降雨且伴随多个强降雨过程, 岷县梅川镇浑水沟暴发泥石流, 左岸方家山滑坡失稳下滑, 严重威胁沟口成兰铁路安全。基于野外调查、遥感解译和室内测试结果, 分析泥包砾的形态结构、矿物组成以及堆积特征, 研究泥包砾形成的地质环境和机制, 探讨泥包砾的灾害意义。研究结果表明: 泥包砾分布于浑水沟流通区下游及堆积区, 呈球形且具多层结构, 由石英、方解石、黏土矿物等组成, 其形成主要受控于流域第四系黄土和古近系泥岩中的黏土矿物, 而较缓的沟道、岸坡黄土滑坡和崩塌的发育以及适宜的水动力条件, 促进了泥包砾的形成和自生加大; 泥石流冲击力随着泥包砾粒径的增大而增大, 再起动所需临界泥石流流速相较于块石较小; 泥包砾是古近系泥岩与泥石流共同作用的结果, 具有加剧泥石流危害的作用, 因此亟需治理浑水沟泥石流以保证成兰铁路的安全运营。