东亚温带气旋及其长期预报（二）：预报应用分析

本文以赤道东太平洋海温作为主导因子，分析其与东亚温带气旋的关系。得出：高海温多气旋，低海温少气旋的对应关系较为明显。并进一步对不符合这种主要关系的年份从环流型。下垫面海温等作了分类鉴别分析。     

Assessing the effectiveness of imperviousness on stormwater runoff in micro urban catchments by model simulation

Imperviousness, considered as a critical indicator of the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, has gained increasing attention both in the research field and in practice. However, the effectiveness of imperviousness on rainfall–runoff dynamics has not been fully determined in a fine spatiotemporal scale. In this study, 69 drainage subareas <1 ha of a typical residential catchment in Beijing were selected to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of imperviousness, under a typical storm event with a 3‐year return period. Two metrics, total impervious area (TIA) and effective impervious area (EIA), were identified to represent the impervious characteristics of the selected subareas. Three runoff variables, total runoff depth (TR), peak runoff depth (PR), and lag time (LT), were simulated by using a validated hydrologic model. Regression analyses were developed to explore the quantitative associations between imperviousness and runoff variables. Then, three scenarios were established to test the applicability of the results in considering the different infiltration conditions. Our results showed that runoff variables are significantly related to imperviousness. However, the hydrologic performances of TIA and EIA were scale dependent. Specifically, with finer spatial scale and the condition heavy rainfall, TIA rather than EIA was found to contribute more to TR and PR. EIA tended to have a greater impact on LT and showed a negative relationship. Moreover, the relative significance of TIA and EIA was maintained under the different infiltration conditions. These findings may provide potential implications for landscape and drainage design in urban areas, which help to mitigate the runoff risk. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用断裂带首波分析甘孜—玉树断裂带拉张盆地结构特征

对断裂带及附近区域地层精细结构的描述是理解地震孕育和发生过程的基础.不同板块或块体边界在构造或区域应力作用下,常常会形成速度间断面和低速的断裂带,间断面和低速带的存在会产生特殊的断裂带地震波,比如断裂带首波和围陷波,并会影响地震的物理过程、破裂速度和破裂方向等.本文主要利用2010年4月14日M_W6.9玉树地震后布设的流动地震台站,对沿着甘孜—玉树断裂带传播的断裂带首波进行识别和分析.分析结果表明,在甘孜—玉树断裂带的不同区域均观测到了断裂带首波,在西段的结隆拉张盆地附近的3个台站沿断裂带界面的平均纵波速度差异值在5%～8%,而其他区域的平均速度差异为1%～3%.通过台站位置分布和断裂带首波特征关系,初步分析了断裂带拉张盆地的结构,结果显示结隆盆地的长度为～40km,宽度为5.35～5.97km,深度不超过5km,在地表浅层形成了一个低速区,分别与巴颜喀拉块体(NE)和羌塘块体(SW)产生了两个物性差异界面,但没有延伸到主震和余震区震源深度.我们的结果表明结合密集台阵资料,通过断裂带首波特征分析可以为断裂带精细结构及几何特征提供一种新的技术方法和途径.     

Uncertainty propagation of hydrodispersive transfer in an aquifer: an illustration of one-dimensional contaminant transport with slug injection

It is evident that the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient and linear flow velocity dominate solute transport in aquifers. Both of them play important roles characterizing contaminant transport. However, by definition, the parameter of contaminant transport cannot be measured directly. For most problems of contaminant transport, a conceptual model for solute transport generally is established to fit the breakthrough curve obtained from field testing, and then suitable curve matching or the inverse solution of a theoretical model is used to determine the parameter. This study presents a one-dimensional solute transport problem for slug injection. Differential analysis is used to analyze uncertainty propagation, which is described by the variance and mean. The uncertainties of linear velocity and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient are, respectively, characterized by the second-power and fourth-power of the length scale multiplied by a lumped relationship of variance and covariance of system parameters, i.e. the Peclet number and arrival time of maximum concentration. To validate the applicability for evaluating variance propagation in one-dimensional solute transport, two cases using field data are presented to demonstrate how parametric uncertainty can be caught depending on the manner of sampling.     

半滑舌鳎(Cynoglossus semilaevis)双链RNA依赖的蛋白激酶R(PKR)基因克隆和实时定量表达分析

采用RACE方法克隆了半滑舌鳎(Cynoglossus semilaevis)PKR基因(CsPKR), 获得了CsPKR全长cDNA序列为2907bp, 其中包含1959bp的开放阅读框, 100bp的5′非编码区和848bp的3′非编码区。保守结构域分析显示推导的CsPKR氨基酸在N端存在两个特异的dsRBD(dsRNA binding domain dsRBD)结构域, 在C端具有多个保守的激酶活性位点, 包括ATP结合位点和底物配体结合位点, 以及活性环结构A-loop。系统进化树分析显示鱼类、两栖类、鸟类及哺乳类的PKR具有共同的进化起源, CsPKR与牙鲆PKR的亲缘关系最为密切。荧光定量PCR结果显示, CsPKR基因在健康鱼多个组织中广泛表达, 在脑中的表达最高, 头肾中表达最低。经鳗弧菌和淋巴囊肿病毒分别感染后, CsPKR基因在免疫相关组织中呈现上调表达趋势, 其中感染鳗弧菌12h后在血液中表达量较对照组上升了9.28倍, 在感染淋巴囊肿病毒24h后, 在肝脏中的表达达到最大, 为对照组的9.97倍。以上结果暗示CsPKR基因在半滑舌鳎响应细菌和病毒免疫应答中起重要作用。     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of     

基于多源数据的夜间经济时空分布格局研究方法

夜间经济是一个城市经济发展和消费水平的重要表征。目前国内外研究者对夜间经济的研究多停留在理论层面,或基于市场调研和问卷调查的小范围精细化研究。本文融合多源数据为夜间经济提供了新的视角,相较于传统的调查数据,具有更加快速、高效、广泛的特点,适合于夜间经济大范围研究。本文基于夜间灯光、POI、OD流等多源数据,采用DBSCAN、K-Means++等空间聚类算法和研究供需关系的盈亏法,分别从消费者角度和商户角度识别厦门市夜间活动热点区域和夜间服务设施分布区域,分析厦门市夜间经济时空分布格局及相关性。研究表明:① 厦门市夜间活动在空间上呈多环状分布并向四周递减,夜间活动热点区域分布受假期的影响因地而异;② 厦门市部分区域已有服务设施未能很好地服务于夜间经济,现有的照明、夜景等夜间灯光基础设施存在供给不足之处;③ 居住人口密度与夜间活动密度呈中度正相关,研究结果具有有效性,夜间服务设施盈亏值及数量、夜间灯光与夜间活动密度呈中、弱度相关,并且餐饮设施更加依赖于夜间灯光。最后,为厦门市未来夜间经济建设提出了根据不同的消费人群和心理提供不同的夜间服务、加强夜间灯光基础设施建设以及市场扶持的举措。研究结论对促进社会就业、增强基础设施使用率有积极意义,同时也能够为城市夜间经济发展和政策制定提供参考。     

基于DEM小流域复杂网络的黄土高原地貌自动识别研究

地貌识别,对于人类建设,地质构造研究,环境治理等相关领域都有着重要意义。传统的基于像素单元或面向对象的地貌识别方法存在局限性。由于流域小单元具有表面形态的完整性,在地貌演化中具有明确的地理意义,基于流域小单元的地貌识别成为了该领域的一个新热点。然而,基于传统地形因子的地貌识别方法使用的因子往往较为单一或者在地学描述上存在重复性,目前尚无针对流域小单元进行空间结构描述和拓扑关系特征量化的地貌识别研究。基于此,本文基于DEM进行水文分析并通过坡谱方法解决了小流域稳定面积难以确定的问题,在黄土高原样区提取了181个稳定小流域。根据复杂网络理论和地貌学原理提出了流域加权复杂网络的概念和相应的8个定量指标用于流域空间结构的模拟和量化描述。最后采用了基于决策树的XGBoost机器学习算法进行地貌识别,实验对于黄土高原主要地貌类型的识别显现出较好的效果,Kappa系数为86.00%,总体精度达到了88.33%。对于地貌形态特征明显的地貌,复杂网络方法其顾及空间结构和拓扑特征的特性导致了其较高的识别性能,精度和召回率都在90%～100%之间。通过与前人的研究进行对比,其识别结果亦呈现出较高的精度,这些...     

体感温度客观分析方法研究

影响人体体感温度的气象要素主要包括温度、湿度、风以及太阳辐射,依据这些气象要素影响人体体感温度的原理,确定了平均气温与体感温度相同时的临界相对湿度、风速及太阳辐射值.以全国有水平面直接辐射曝辐量观测项目的77个气象台站的历年逐日4次定时观测资料为基础,把相邻两个白昼(夜间)的气温差作为因变量,相对湿度差、风速差、垂直辐射差(白昼)作为自变量,以旬为时问分辨率,建立了逐旬多元回归方程.各地所建立的逐句多元线性拟合方程拟合优度相当高,F统计量检验也充分证明线性回归方程总体成立,从气候意义、统计角度来看该方法都具有充分的可行性.     

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