Metals discharged during different flow conditions from a mixed agricultural‐forest catchment (NW Spain)

Metal loads were determined from water samples collected under different streamflow conditions (baseflow and storm events) in a rural catchment (NW Spain) during 4 years. A study at annual, seasonal and storm‐event scales was carried out. In all analysed scales, the export order was Fe > Al > Mn > Zn > Cu. A high inter‐annual, seasonal and storm‐event scale variability of metal load was observed. The total metal loads in stream were higher during baseflow conditions than during storm events, which only represented 4% of the duration of the study period and 25% of streamflow. During storm events, both Al and Fe loads accounted 45% of the total load of the study period, whereas Mn, Cu and Zn loads represented 42%, 33% and 24%, respectively. This highlights the role of high flows on metal export. Only four big events exported around 30% of load of each metal transported in events. At all time scales, a prevalence of export of particulate metals over dissolved metals was observed, more pronounced for Al, Fe and Mn than for Cu and Zn. The export of metals in the Corbeira catchment is influenced by runoff and, to a lesser extent, by the rainfall amount. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling groundwater/surface water interaction in a managed riparian chalk valley wetland

Understanding hydrological processes in wetlands may be complicated by management practices and complex groundwater/surface water interactions. This is especially true for wetlands underlain by permeable geology, such as chalk. In this study, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE is used to simulate hydrological processes at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory, Boxford, Berkshire, UK. This comprises a 10‐ha lowland, chalk valley bottom, riparian wetland designated for its conservation value and scientific interest. Channel management and a compound geology exert important, but to date not completely understood, influences upon hydrological conditions. Model calibration and validation were based upon comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater heads and channel stages over an equally split 20‐month period. Model results are generally consistent with field observations and include short‐term responses to events as well as longer‐term seasonal trends. An intrinsic difficulty in representing compressible, anisotropic soils limited otherwise excellent performance in some areas. Hydrological processes in the wetland are dominated by the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Channel stage provides head boundaries for broad water levels across the wetland, whilst areas of groundwater upwelling control discrete head elevations. A relic surface drainage network confines flooding extents and routes seepage to the main channels. In‐channel macrophyte growth and its management have an acute effect on water levels and the proportional contribution of groundwater and surface water. The implications of model results for management of conservation species and their associated habitats are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.     

变化环境下渭河流域水文干旱演变特征剖析

环境变化影响区域水资源的可持续开发利用,导致水文过程出现非平稳特征,需发展非平稳水文干旱评估方法。选取渭河流域为研究区,依据流域内2个水文站、62个雨量站和24个气象站1961-2013年数据,基于可变下渗容量模型定量分离气候变化和人类活动对径流衰减的贡献;采用标准化径流指数（Standardized Runoff Index, SRI）剖析水文干旱时空演变特征;提出多种SRI参数化方案,对比评定各方案表征非平稳干旱的合理性以及环境变化对干旱演变的影响作用。结果表明:自1991年以来渭河流域年径流量呈显著衰减趋势,人类活动是径流演变的主要因素,对咸阳和华县站径流量变化的贡献率分别为-66.7%和-71.0%;时变参数方案计算的干旱指数能合理重建历史水文干旱序列;人类活动是渭河流域1991年以来短历时水文干旱发生的主导因素,气候变化主要影响长历时旱涝的演变趋势。     

流域坡面汇流研究现状述评

对当前坡面汇流计算方法的研究进展进行了较为系统的总结与分析,并对坡面汇流的非线性效应以及城市低影响开发中的雨水入渗与蓄集对坡面汇流的控制作用进行了简要分析。从模型简单实用的角度出发,认为以流域时间-面积关系与线性水库相串联的ModClark法等为代表的概念性分布式坡面汇流模型具有良好的发展前景;考虑到基于等流时单元的变动等流时线法在反映雨强非线性影响中存在的问题,认为根据水文响应单元在不同雨强条件下汇流时间的变化,调整其汇流参数以反映坡面汇流的非线性效应,对于流域坡面汇流的分布式模拟更具有实际意义;针对目前低影响开发设施长时间序列大空间尺度的室外降雨径流监测资料普遍较为缺乏的现状,给出了后期应积极选择合适的技术以加强低影响开发性能监测工作的建议。     

Persistent alternate abundance states in the coral reef sea urchin Diadema savignyi: evidence of alternate attractors

Alternate attractors have been shown to exist in a variety of terrestrial and aquatic systems, e.g. temperate forests, savannas, shallow lakes, wetlands, coral reefs, kelp forests. The shift from one attractor to another, also referred to as a regime shift, is thought to occur when a system passes some critical threshold such that the trajectory of the system changes direction. Alternate attractors in population dynamics can also exist, leading to alternate stable states in the population abundance of a species. This study explored alternate attractors in the population dynamics of the Indo‐Pacific sea urchin Diadema savignyi and the potential underlying mechanisms that promote its bi‐stability. In Moorea, French Polynesia, the local abundance of D. savignyi, a functionally important herbivore in lagoon habitats, occurs in two states: (i) solitary individuals that occupy crevices in low densities and (ii) aggregations of tens to hundreds of individuals. These different states are temporally stable and are not explained by spatial differences in recruitment rates of juveniles. A field experiment revealed that the per capita mortality rate of adult D. savignyi was substantially lower at sites where urchins occurred in aggregations compared with sites at which they were solitary individuals. An additional experiment showed that per capita mortality decreased with increasing aggregation size. Individuals in high‐density aggregations, however, had significantly smaller test diameters than solitary individuals, indicating that individuals in aggregations may be food limited. Collectively, the evidence suggests that the two different local abundance states of D. savignyi result from negative feedback loops where high local density can be maintained by aggregative behavior that greatly reduces per capita risk of predation when the local number of adult sea urchins is sufficiently large; sites with few sea urchins remain at low density because individuals are more susceptible to predation when crevices are occupied but there are not enough individuals to form large aggregations. Thus, there may be alternate attractors in the population dynamics of D. savignyi that can produce either persistently low or high local population densities.     

近60年来长江河口河势变化及其对水动力和盐水入侵的影响I.河势变化

河势是影响河口水动力和盐水入侵基本因子。本文利用20世纪50和70年代长江河口海图,数值化岸线和水深,结合2012年长江河口实测水深资料,分析长江河口自50年代以来的河势变化。长江河口为分汊河口,50年代仅为二级分汊,至70年代才形成三级分汊,四口入海的河势格局。70年代相比于50年代,北支淤浅严重,其上、中、下段容积变化分别为-64.13×106、-306.60×106和-639.27×106 m3,对应的变化率分别为-16.30%、-22.74%和-25.69%,均显著减小;南支的上、中、下段容积变化分别为-28.61×106、-35.69×106和126.43×106 m3,相应的变化率分别为-1.30%、-2.12%和4.36%;北港由于崇明浅滩和横沙浅滩的淤浅,下段容积明显减小,其上段和下段容积变化分别为109.21×106和-797.14×106 m3,对应的变化率分别为5.01%和-15.25%;南港上段由于河道淤浅容积减小,下段北由于铜沙浅滩被冲开形成北槽,导致水深变深、容积增加,其上段、下段北和下段南容积变化分别为-238.95×106、203.58×106和153.34×106 m3,对应的变化率分别为-8.96%、6.85%和3.26%。2012年相比于70年代,北支由于大量淤浅和围垦容积大幅减小,其上、中、下段容积变化分别为-199.06×106、-504.61×106和-654.12×106 m3,对应的变化率分别为-60.45%、-48.44%和-35.38%;南支的上、中、下段容积变化分别为92.34×106、193.01×106和-163.62×106 m3,相应的变化率分别为4.24%、11.73%和-5.40%;北港上段青草沙水库的围垦和下段横沙东滩的围垦造成面积和容积减小,其上段和下段容积变化分别为-154.64×106和-511.79×106 m3,对应的变化率分别为-6.75%和-11.55%;南港由于上段河道刷深而下段九段沙以及南汇边滩淤浅、围垦,导致其容积上段增加,下段减小,上段、下段北和下段南容积变化分别为136.39×106、-658.28×106和-1266.11×106 m3,对应的变化率分别为5.62%、-20.73%和-26.06%。