最优气候相似法及其在降水预报中的应用

介绍了一种短期气候预测方法———最优气候相似法 ,并应用于张家界地区 1 999～ 2 0 0 2年 5～ 7月总降水预报中 ,结果显示最优气候相似法能够有效地提高短期气候的预测能力 ,特别对气候异常具有良好的反应能力 ,适合于短期气候业务预报。     

成都市区域化探深层样品元素异常与物探重、磁异常及遥感解译构造的关系

通过深层样化探异常与物探重力、航磁和遥感解译关系的研究,认为深层样元素异常是由隐伏构造指示元素Au、Hg,与重力负异常有关的酸性岩元素Sn、Be、F、Y,与航磁正异常有关的基性岩元素Fe、Co、Ni、V、Cr和与地层有关元素Cd、C、Tl四部分组成;解释了深层样元素异常的原因,开拓出区域化探与区域物探、遥感解译相结合的新路。     

基于GIS/RS的流域水文过程分布式模拟——Ⅰ模型的原理与结构

面向流域水资源管理,提出了一个基于GIS/RS的流域分布式水文模型,模型主要包括单元水文模型与河网汇流模型两大部分。单元水文模型涉及到冠层截留、融雪、蒸散发、坡面流、非饱和土壤水运动和地下水出流等水文物理过程。产流计算考虑到地形坡度的影响采用基于地形指数的计算方法。汇流演算基于河网结构采用分段马斯京根方法。模型的大部分参数与输入信息可以利用GIS和RS技术获取,能够对气候变化和人类活动对下垫面的改变,做出快速的模拟与响应。     

干旱区内陆河流域水文与水资源问题

阐述了我国水文水资源研究的发展阶段,面临的主要问题,以及当前研究中的热点问题。以新疆地区为例,对干旱区内陆河流域的水文水资源研究方向作了初步探讨。     

个旧锡矿阿西寨矿段化探异常分带及找矿意义

通过对个旧锡矿阿西寨矿段地表基岩的地球化学勘查。发现其成矿元素的地球化学异常表现出明显的环状分带，并以测区内隐伏花岗岩凸起为中心，元素分带序列与元素本身的地球化学性质所决定的侧向迁移活动能力相符合。该现象再次证实个旧锡矿为花岗岩岩浆期后热液成矿，花岗岩是大多数成矿金属元素的物质来源，同时也是成矿热液活动的主要驱动营力。分析认为，阿西寨测区是一个相对较完整和独立的(凸起)成矿场，成矿热液活动以阿西寨凸起为中心。成矿热液活动体系受断裂导流影响，在以花岗岩凸起为中心的分带控制下，可能存在的工业矿体将在主干断裂附近和有利的构造岩性界面产出。     

Gravity anomalies and associated tectonic features over the Indian Peninsular Shield and adjoining ocean basins

A combined gravity map over the Indian Peninsular Shield (IPS) and adjoining oceans brings out well the inter-relationships between the older tectonic features of the continent and the adjoining younger oceanic features. The NW–SE, NE–SW and N–S Precambrian trends of the IPS are reflected in the structural trends of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal suggesting their probable reactivation. The Simple Bouguer anomaly map shows consistent increase in gravity value from the continent to the deep ocean basins, which is attributed to isostatic compensation due to variations in the crustal thickness. A crustal density model computed along a profile across this region suggests a thick crust of 35–40 km under the continent, which reduces to 22/20–24 km under the Bay of Bengal with thick sediments of 8–10 km underlain by crustal layers of density 2720 and 2900/2840 kg/m³. Large crustal thickness and trends of the gravity anomalies may suggest a transitional crust in the Bay of Bengal up to 150–200 km from the east coast. The crustal thickness under the Laxmi ridge and east of it in the Arabian Sea is 20 and 14 km, respectively, with 5–6 km thick Tertiary and Mesozoic sediments separated by a thin layer of Deccan Trap. Crustal layers of densities 2750 and 2950 kg/m³ underlie sediments. The crustal density model in this part of the Arabian Sea (east of Laxmi ridge) and the structural trends similar to the Indian Peninsular Shield suggest a continent–ocean transitional crust (COTC). The COTC may represent down dropped and submerged parts of the Indian crust evolved at the time of break-up along the west coast of India and passage of Reunion hotspot over India during late Cretaceous. The crustal model under this part also shows an underplated lower crust and a low density upper mantle, extending over the continent across the west coast of India, which appears to be related to the Deccan volcanism. The crustal thickness under the western Arabian Sea (west of the Laxmi ridge) reduces to 8–9 km with crustal layers of densities 2650 and 2870 kg/m³ representing an oceanic crust.     

Slab behaviour and its surface expression: new insights from gravity modelling in the SE-Carpathians

We use lithosphere-scale gravity models to calculate gravity anomalies resulting from oceanic subduction, continental collision, slab steepening, delamination, and break-off. Local isostasy was assumed for determining vertical movements caused by mass changes related to these tectonic processes. Our results show that subduction is accompanied by basin subsidence on the upper plate caused by the heavy lithospheric root of the subducting slab. The basin evolution goes parallel with the slab evolution and shows considerable modifications when the processes at depth change (slab steepening, delamination, break-off). Characteristic gravity anomaly curves were acquired for the different tectonic scenarios. These curves together with other data (e.g. basin evolution on the upper and the lower plate) were used for the reconstruction of the tectonic evolution of the SE-Carpathians which includes Tertiary subduction and collision followed by slab steepening and delamination.     

Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.     

On the effect of a low viscosity asthenosphere on the temporal change of the geoid—A challenge for future gravity missions

New satellite technology to measure changes in the Earth’s gravity field gives new possibilities to detect layers of low viscosity inside the Earth. We used density models for the Earth mantle based on slab history as well as on tomography and fitted the viscosity by comparison of predicted gravity to the new CHAMP gravity model. We first confirm that the fit to the observed geoid is insensitive to the presence of a low viscosity anomaly in the upper mantle as long as the layer is thin ( 200 km) and the viscosity reduction is less than two orders of magnitude. Then we investigated the temporal change in geoid by comparing two stages of slablet sinking based on subduction history or by advection of tomography derived densities and compared the spectra of the geoid change for cases with and without a low viscosity layer, but about equal fit to the observed geoid. The presence of a low viscosity layer causes relaxation at smaller wavelength and thus leads to a spectrum with relatively stronger power in higher modes and a peak around degrees 5 and 6. Comparing the spectra to the expected degree resolution for GRACE data for a 5 years mission duration shows a weak possibility to detect changes in the Earth’s gravity field due to large scale mantle circulation, provided that other causes of geoid changes can be taken into account with sufficient accuracy. A discrimination between the two viscosity cases, however, demands a new generation of gravity field observing satellites.