淮河上游大暴雨的水分平衡

分析了淮河上游大暴雨过程的水汽来源和暴雨区的水分平衡。结果说明，暴雨区除有大量水汽净通量外，还有相当数量的水分来自云的净输送，尤其是大暴雨中心附近，积雨云团的净通量决定降水量的大小。因此，分析云的移动和变化是暴雨预报的重要课题。     

遥感及再分析降水产品在缺资料干旱内陆盆地的适用性评估

山区降水较集中,但降水测站多位于山谷或人口密集区,代表性差。遥感和再分析降水产品能提供时空分布连续的数据,不受地形条件限制。柴达木盆地中心属干旱荒漠区,水是制约该区开发的首要条件,其四周属高寒山区,降水相对较多,但降水监测十分薄弱。为获取该区相对精确的降水时空分布信息,本文评估了4套高分辨率降水产品（CMADS、TRMM、GPM和MSWEP）的适用性。首先基于地面站点数据评估它们在不同时空尺度上的精度,并分析它们在柴达木盆地的空间分布和年内分配特征。然后,以盆地东南隅的无测站山区香日德河流域为研究区,利用降水产品驱动SWAT模型来评估它们的分布式水文模拟适用性。结果表明：(1) MSWEP在年、月尺度上与站点降水的吻合程度最高（R≥0.79,PBIAS=0.5%）,其次是GPM和TRMM,CMADS精度最低（R≥0.64,PBIAS=5.8%）;(2)从降水精度与站点高程的关系来看,降水产品在相对低海拔区容易高估站点降水,而在相对高海拔区常低估实际降水;(3)在香日德河流域,MSWEP(NSE=0.64)在基准期（2009—2012年）的径流模拟表现明显好于其它降水产品（NSE=0.3...     

Hydrologic processes at the urban residential scale

In the face of increasing urbanization, there is growing interest in application of microscale hydrologic solutions to minimize storm runoff and conserve water at the source. In this study, a physically based numerical model was developed to understand hydrologic processes better at the urban residential scale and the interaction of these processes among different best management practices (BMPs). This model simulates hydrologic processes using an hourly interval for over a full year or for specific storm events. The model was applied to treatment and control single‐family residential parcels in Los Angeles, California. Data collected from the control and treatment sites over 2 years were used to calibrate and validate the model. Annual storm runoff to the street was eliminated by 97% with installation of rain gutters, a driveway interceptor, and lawn retention basin. Evaluated individually, the driveway interceptor was the most effective BMP for storm runoff reduction (65%), followed by the rain gutter installation (28%), and lawn converted to retention basin (12%). An 11 m³ cistern did not substantially reduce runoff, but provided 9% of annual landscape irrigation demand. Simulated landscape irrigation water use was reduced 53% by increasing irrigation system efficiency, and adjusting application rates monthly based on plant water demand. The model showed that infiltration and surface runoff processes were particularly sensitive to the soil's physical properties and its effective depth. Replacing the existing loam soil with clay soil increased annual runoff discharge to the street by 63% when climate and landscape features remained unchanged. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种高效的三维GIS数据库引擎设计与实现

针对大规模三维城市建模与数据库协同应用,设计实现了一种高效的三维GIS数据库引擎,支持基于Oracle 11g的多模式数据库管理;提出了顾及语义的三维空间数据库模型,为地上下室内外三维空间数据的一体化组织管理奠定了基础。介绍了该引擎涉及的多层次三维空间索引、多级缓存、多线程调度以及异步通信传输等关键技术,并用武汉市三维城市模型数据进行了试验分析,验证了该引擎的有效性和可靠性。     

Mapping transit‐based access: integrating GIS,routes and schedules

Seabed sediment textural parameters such as mud, sand and gravel content can be useful surrogates for predicting patterns of benthic biodiversity. Multibeam sonar mapping can provide near-complete spatial coverage of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter data that are useful in predicting sediment parameters. Multibeam acoustic data collected across a ～1000 km² area of the Carnarvon Shelf, Western Australia, were used in a predictive modelling approach to map eight seabed sediment parameters. Four machine learning models were used for the predictive modelling: boosted decision tree, random forest decision tree, support vector machine and generalised regression neural network. The results indicate overall satisfactory statistical performance, especially for %Mud, %Sand, Sorting, Skewness and Mean Grain Size. The study also demonstrates that predictive modelling using the combination of machine learning models has provided the ability to generate prediction uncertainty maps. However, the single models were shown to have overall better prediction performance than the combined models. Another important finding was that choosing an appropriate set of explanatory variables, through a manual feature selection process, was a critical step for optimising model performance. In addition, machine learning models were able to identify important explanatory variables, which are useful in identifying underlying environmental processes and checking predictions against the existing knowledge of the study area. The sediment prediction maps obtained in this study provide reliable coverage of key physical variables that will be incorporated into the analysis of covariance of physical and biological data for this area.     

Effects of elevated air temperatures on soil thermal and hydrologic processes in the active layer in an alpine meadow ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In this study,effects of elevated air temperatures on thermal and hydrologic process of the shallow soil in the active layer were investigated. Open-top chambers(OTCs)were utilized to increase air temperatures 1-2℃ in OTC-1 and 3-5℃ in OTC-2 in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau.Results show that the annual air temperatures under OTC-1 and OTC-2 were 1.21℃ and 3.62℃ higher than the Control,respectively.The entirely-frozen period of shallow soil in the active layer was shortened and the fully thawed period was prolonged with temperature increase.The maximum penetration depth and duration of the negative isotherm during the entirely-frozen period decreased, and soil freezing was retarded in the local scope of the soil profile when temperature increased.Meanwhile, the positive isotherm during the fully-thawed period increased,and the soil thawing was accelerated.Soil moisture under different manipulations decreased with the temperature increase at the same depth. During the early freezing period and the early fully- thawed period,the maximum soil moisture under the Control manipulation was at 0.2 m deep,whereas under OTC-1 and OTC-2 manipulations,the maximum soil moisture were at 0.4-0.5 m deep. These results indicate that elevated temperatures led to a decrease of the moisture in the surface soil.The coupled relationship between soil temperature and moisture was significantly affected by the temperature increase.During the freezing and thawing processes, the soil temperature and moisture under different manipulations fit the regression model given by the equationθV=a/{1+exp[b(TS+c)]}+d.     

基于TRMM卫星雷达降雨的流域陆面水文过程

利用热带降雨观测计划(TRMM)卫星雷达降雨数据驱动分布式陆面水文模型,研究流域尺度陆面水文过程,评估该数据在水文模拟与预报等研究领域的性能。通过与实测雨量资料比较,验证TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据的质量。分别将TRMM卫星雷达降雨与观测降雨作为耦合模型的气象输入,模拟和研究淮河流域1998~2003年的陆面水文过程时空变化。结果表明,TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据能够很好地描述降雨的时空分布,利用TRMM降雨模拟的结果与利用观测降雨模拟的结果精度相当;模拟流量与实测资料基本吻合。卫星雷达降雨数据在陆面水文过程研究中具有广泛的应用前景。     

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.