新疆主要河流水文极值变化趋势

水文极值是工程水文计算的基础资料,实测样本资料的变化直接影响水文设计值。基于1956-2006年的实测洪峰、洪量、年最小流量、最枯月径流量等资料,分析了各水文要素的变化及其趋势。结果表明:20世纪80年代中期以来超标准洪峰、洪量的频次增加,大多数河流洪水峰、量都呈增大变化趋势,说明新疆洪水又进入活跃期,在工程水文设计洪水计算中要应尽可能搜集和利用近期暴雨和洪水资料,在洪水系列中增加更多大洪水信息,提高设计洪水计算成果的稳定性。年最小流量和最枯月径流量是维持河流生命和河道两岸自然生态的基础流量,基流量增大有利于对生态补给、水利发电,水库蓄水,径流年内分配趋于均匀有利于水量年内调节。但在枯水径流分析计算中应充分重视不同年份最枯水量出现时间有明显推迟的迹象。     

从规则格网DEM自动提取汇水区域及其子区域的方法

从DEM自动提取的汇水区域及其子区域信息对进一步的水文分析有着重要的辅助作用.在经过洼地处理的DEM及得到水流方向矩阵的基础上,本文提出并实现了一种汇水区域及其子区域的提取算法.该算法首先提取整个DEM区域内每条河流的汇水区域,然后按照不同的要求划分子区域.经过试验,与现有的方法相比,该算法在提取效率和结果准确性方面都有明显提高.     

Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Uncertainty in hydrologic modelling for estimating hydrologic response due to climate change (Santiam River,Oregon)

This paper explores the predicted hydrologic responses associated with the compounded error of cascading global circulation model (GCM) uncertainty through hydrologic model uncertainty due to climate change. A coupled groundwater and surface water flow model (GSFLOW) was used within the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) uncertainty approach and combined with eight GCMs to investigate uncertainties in hydrologic predictions for three subbasins of varying hydrogeology within the Santiam River basin in Oregon, USA. Predictions of future hydrology in the Santiam River include increases in runoff in the fall and winter months and decreases in runoff for the spring and summer months. One‐year peak flows were predicted to increase whereas 100‐year peak flows were predicted to slightly decrease. The predicted 10‐year 7‐day low flow decreased in two subbasins with little groundwater influences but increased in another subbasin with substantial groundwater influences. Uncertainty in GCMs represented the majority of uncertainty in the analysis, accounting for an average deviation from the median of 66%. The uncertainty associated with use of GSFLOW produced only an 8% increase in the overall uncertainty of predicted responses compared to GCM uncertainty. This analysis demonstrates the value and limitations of cascading uncertainty from GCM use through uncertainty in the hydrologic model, offers insight into the interpretation and use of uncertainty estimates in water resources analysis, and illustrates the need for a fully nonstationary approach with respect to calibrating hydrologic models and transferring parameters across basins and time for climate change analyses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of subsurface conceptualization on land energy fluxes

There is a significant body of work demonstrating the importance of hydrologic control on land energy feedbacks. Yet, quantitative data on aquifer conductivity can be difficult to assemble. Furthermore, how subsurface uncertainty propagates into land-surface processes is not well understood. This study analyzes the impact of aquifer characterization on land energy fluxes, using a coupled hydrology–land-surface model. Four gridded subsurface conductivity fields are developed for the Upper Klamath basin using two data sources and different levels of imposed heterogeneity. Each model is forced with the same transient, observed meteorology for 3 years prior to the final year presented here. Results are analyzed to quantify the impact of subsurface heterogeneity on groundwater surface water interactions and spatial patterns in hydrologic variables. Analysis shows that heterogeneity does not fundamentally alter the connection between groundwater and land surface processes. However, differences between scenarios impact the extent and location of the critical zone.     

构建式流域实时水文预报系统关键技术研究

目前的水文预报模型很多,但都缺乏统一的模式。通过对水文预报模型的高度抽象,定义了水文预报模型的标准化接口,统一了各类水文预报模型的输入、输出、参数、状态,以及运行过程;在此基础上,实现了水文预报方案的标准化"构建"模式,即通过标准化水文预报模型的相互组合实现流域水文预报方案的标准化创建。基于以上关键技术,成功开发了构建式流域实时水文预报系统,并取得了良好的应用效果。     

基于ArcGIS的DEM流域划分

从数字高程模型DEM(Digit Elevation Models)直接提取河网及流域信息,是分布式水文模型开发与应用的基础.本文利用ArcGIS中的水文分析工具从DEM中提取了流域水文特征.主要包括:DEM的预处理、水流方向的确定、水流累积量提取、河网的提取、集水区的提取和流域的划分.本文探讨了两种不同划分流域的方法...     

国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展

变异点识别在区分气候变化和人类活动对水文过程的影响中具有十分重要的作用。近几十年来,国内水文序列变异点的研究逐渐发展,从最早的使用单一方法发展到由多种方法组成的水文序列变异点诊断系统和对部分方法的改进。同时,各种方法在中国各主要流域得到广泛应用,但是使用的方法不同,水文序列时间年限不同,得到的变异点的结果也不完全一致。本文将目前普遍采用的方法及在各流域的应用成果进行了系统总结,为今后水文序列变异点的方法改进及其在流域中的应用发展提供参考。     

气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展

气候异常变化导致洪涝灾害、干旱等极端水文事件的发生及其增加的水灾害风险正成为人类生存所面临的重大挑战。近年来,开展气候变化背景下流域极端水文事件的变化趋势、发生机理及其对气候变化的响应与预测研究正逐渐受到国内外众多学者的关注。本文从极端水文事件的定义、研究方法、水文极值分布函数、观测事实及模拟研究等方面分析评述了极端水文事件问题的研究现状和研究成果。在此基础上,讨论了研究现状存在的问题并对该领域未来研究方向进行了展望。     

黄海海雾天气气候特征及其成因分析

利用2002-2008年的地面观测资料、青岛小浮标站资料、海洋大气综合资料、NCEP再分析资料和卫星云图等资料,对黄海海雾的天气气候特征、环流型和相关的水文、气象因子进行分析研究.结果表明,黄海海雾呈现逐年递增的年际变化,且集中发生在春夏季,自南向北雾季逐渐推迟,发生频数增多；一日中主要出现在夜间至早晨.黄海海雾可归纳为冷锋型、高压后部型和均压场型三种天气类型.海雾是流入黄海的黑潮暖流分支与沿岸的冷水流相遇,在适宜的海温、气海温差、大气稳定度和风场等水文、气象条件下形成的,这些条件可为海雾发生、发展的预报提供一些参考依据.