基于空间场-水文模型的城市影响腹地界定及其空间演变分析——以河南省地级城市为例

城市影响腹地范围的划分,在区域与城市规划中有着重要的理论和实际意义。本文从"城市结节性"和"空间交通可达性"两方面改进场强模型,采用主成分分析法与指标体系计算河南省城市结节性指数,利用累积耗费距离测算空间可达性,借助k阶数据场模型与水文分析模型,综合测度了1991年和2010年河南省17个地级城市的影响腹地范围及空间演变特征。研究表明,20年间河南省地级城市的平均可达本文时间从1991年的45.41 min缩短为2010年的33.03 min,空间场能显著增长且空间分异性显著。南阳的腹地面积增加最大,信阳的腹地面积缩小最大;安阳腹地面积增加率和漯河腹地面积减少率最大。郑州的腹地范围与其行政辖区偏移度最大。     

Assessing the uncertainties of hydrologic model selection in climate change impact studies

The uncertainties associated with atmosphere‐ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) and hydrologic models are assessed by means of multi‐modelling and using the statistically downscaled outputs from eight GCM simulations and two emission scenarios. The statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing is used to drive four hydrologic models, three lumped and one distributed, of differing complexity: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC‐SMA) model, Conceptual HYdrologic MODel (HYMOD), Thornthwaite‐Mather model (TM) and the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS). The models are calibrated based on three objective functions to create more plausible models for the study. The hydrologic model simulations are then combined using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method according to the performance of each models in the observed period, and the total variance of the models. The study is conducted over the rainfall‐dominated Tualatin River Basin (TRB) in Oregon, USA. This study shows that the hydrologic model uncertainty is considerably smaller than GCM uncertainty, except during the dry season, suggesting that the hydrologic model selection‐combination is critical when assessing the hydrologic climate change impact. The implementation of the BMA in analysing the ensemble results is found to be useful in integrating the projected runoff estimations from different models, while enabling to assess the model structural uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds

This study uses a system dynamics approach to explore hydrological processes in the geographic locations where the main contribution to flooding is coming from the snowmelt. Temperature is identified as a critical factor that affects watershed hydrological processes. Based on the dynamic processes of the hydrologic cycle occurring in a watershed, the feedback relationships linking the watershed structure, as well as the climate factors, to the streamflow generation were identified prior to the development of a system dynamics model. The model is used to simulate flood patterns generated by snowmelt under temperature change in the spring. Model structure captures a vertical water balance using five tanks representing snow, interception, surface, subsurface and groundwater storage. Calibration and verification results show that temperature change and snowmelt play a key role in flood generation. Results indicate that simulated values match observed data very well. The goodness‐of‐fit between simulated and observed peak flow data is measured using coefficient of efficiency, coefficient of determination and square of the residual mass curve coefficient. For the Assiniboine River all three measures were in the interval between 0·92 and 0·96 and for the Red River between 0·89 and 0·97. The model is capable of capturing the essential dynamics of streamflow formation. Model input requires a set of initial values for all state variables and the time series of daily temperature and precipitation information. Data from the Red River Basin, shared by Canada and the USA, are used in the model development and testing. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remote sensing observations of biological material by LANDSAT along a tidal thermal front and their relevancy to the available field data

Two images recorded on two successive summer days by LANDSAT satellite over the western approaches to the English Channel show bright pattern of complex shape the origin of which is puzzling. Among the wavelength bands available on LANDSAT's multispectral scanner, these patterns are apparent only in the green region of the spectrum, and they are located towards the stratified side of a well marked tidal thermal front. Spectral signature analysis and available knowledge on hydrography and plankton in the area are used to derive a proposed interpretation. Phytoplankton would accordingly be the best candidate for being responsible for the observed patterns.     

The impact of parameter lumping and geometric simplification in modelling runoff and erosion in the shrublands of southeast Arizona

There have been many studies of hydrologic processes and scale. However, some researchers have found that predictions from hydrologic models may not be improved by attempting to incorporate the understanding of these processes into hydrologic models. This paper quantifies the effect of simplifying watershed geometry and averaging the parameter values on simulations generated using the KINEROS2 model. Furthermore, it examines how these changes in model input effect model output. The model was applied on a small semiarid rangeland watershed in which runoff is generated by the infiltration excess mechanism. The study concludes that averaging input parameter values has little effect on runoff volume and peak in simulating runoff. However, geometric simplification does have an effect on runoff peak and volume, but it is not statistically significant. In contrast, both averaging input parameter values and geometric simplification have an effect on model‐predicted sediment yield. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shrinking and Drying up of Baiyangdian Lake Wetland： A Natural or Human Cause？

1 Introduction The sensitivity of ecosystems to global climate change is one of important issues for research. Many studies have indicated that wetland ecosystem is one of the most vulnerable systems (Brock and Van, 1992; Vourltis and Oechel, 1997; Burkeet, 2000; Lahmer et al., 2001; Zhang et al., 2001; Deng et al., 2003). The shrinking and drying up of wetlands in arid and semiarid areas of China have been widely observed in the recent years (Wang, 1990; Wang and Zhang, 1991; Jin, 1993; …     

A comparison of hillslope drainage area estimation methods using high-resolution DEMs with implications for topographic studies of gullies

Topographic models provide a useful tool for understanding gully occurrence in the landscape but require reliable estimates of gully head drainage areas. Modern high-resolution topography data (collected using structure from motion photogrammetry or light detection and ranging) is increasingly used for topographic studies of gullies, but little work has been done to assess the variability of gully head drainage area estimates using different methods. This study evaluated alternative approaches to using high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) so that gully topographic models can be more readily applied to any area with suitably high-resolution data. Specifically, we investigated the impact of single- or multiple-direction flow routing algorithms, DEM hydrologic-enforcement procedures and spatial resolution on gully head drainage area estimation. We tested these methods on a 40 km² site centred on Weany Creek, a low-relief semi-arid landscape draining towards the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Using a subroutine to separate gully heads into those with divergent or convergent flow patterns upslope, we found that divergent flow conditions occurred at half of 484 studied gullies. Drainage areas estimated by different flow routing algorithms were more variable in these divergent cases than for convergent cases. This variation caused a significant difference between topographic threshold parameters (slope b and intercept k) derived from single- or multiple-direction flow routing algorithms, respectively. Different methods of hydrologic enforcement (filling or breaching) also affected threshold analysis, resulting in estimates of the exponent b being ~188% higher if the DEM was filled than if breached. The testing of the methods to date indicates that a finer resolution (≤2 m) DEM and a multiple-direction flow routing algorithm achieve the most realistic drainage area estimates in low-relief landscapes. For Weany Creek we estimated threshold parameters k = 0.033 and b = 0.189, indicating that it is highly susceptible to gully erosion.     

UNSTEADY MOVEMENT OF FRESH WATER IN THICK UNCONFINED SALINE AQUIFERS

Abstract

Fresh-water lenses are formed in unconfined saline aquifers in response to deep percolation from rainfall, artificial recharge, and seepage from irrigation waters and/or in response to injecting fresh water through vertical or horizontal wells. An approximate differential equation is derived in terms of the depth of the fresh-salt water interface below the initial position of the saline-water table. This equation is analogous to that of the ground-water motion in two dimensions. The wealth of knowledge available from solving the latter equation is used to obtain approximate expressions for the movement of the fresh-salt water interface in several flow systems wherein this interface does not reach the bottom of the aquifer. These approximate solutions as well as others for related quantities of interest may afford useful tools for rationally planning the extraction of usable waters from such flow systems.     

基于流域面积～高程关系曲线的洪峰传播历时计算方法及其在长江流域的应用

流域内洪峰传播过程与流域的一些统计特性相关。本文基于重力驱动原理和流域面积~高程关系曲线,计算长江流域内洪峰传播历时。研究结果表明:由曲线法计算得到的长江流域53个子流域的洪峰传播历时与流域特征明显相关,曲线法计算值与经验公式计算值之间呈线性关系,通过线性转化可方便、快速地得到流域洪峰转播时间值。此方法可用于研究流域地貌与水文响应的关系及洪水快速预报。     

不同条件下水文要素重现期的计算方法

重现期在工程规划、设计、运行和管理中已经得到了广泛应用,然而,由于气候变化和人类活动破坏了水文频率分析中的一致性基础,致使基于一致性的重现期计算方法面临挑战,迫切需要研究新的重现期计算方法。以重现期两种不同的定义入手,给出了在水文系列满足独立性假定后重现期在一致性与非一致性条件下各自计算公式,并以广东省东江流域龙川站1956~2009年的年最大洪峰资料系列为例,分析了不同条件下重现期及其变化的特点与原因。