加强科研前期管理提高科研立项申报质量

针对成都气象学院近年来科研项目申报中存在的问题,提出了选题必须遵循的基本原则,填写申报书和加强申报工作管理的各环节。这对提高项目科学水平和获准率具有一定作用。     

基于街景图像的厦门本岛环境特征对住宅价格的影响研究

住宅价格的空间分异是城市空间资源配置不均衡的外在表现,理解住宅价格的主导影响因素及其空间分异特征对于住区规划及房价调控政策的制定具有重要意义。既有研究较少考虑环境品质对住宅价格的影响和影响因素的作用尺度差异,针对以上问题,本文引入街景图像,在特征价格模型的基础上拓展环境特征,构建多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型,研究环境特征对住宅价格的影响效用,并通过分析其他控制变量的系数空间格局,总结各变量的空间分异特征规律。主要结论为：(1)街景图像测度的环境特征更符合人们对居住环境的真实感知,研究结论可为居住环境品质提升提供更加精细化的设计策略;MGWR模型对变量的空间分异现象具有更接近于真实值的拟合效果,可描述不同变量的作用尺度差异,这有助于为特定地区制定针对性规划策略。(2)厦门本岛住宅价格呈现显著的聚类特征,并沿城市核心发展轴呈“带状”结构分布。(3) 3个环境特征变量对于住宅价格均为显著的正向影响,且作用接近全局尺度,街景绿视率的影响最强,其次是天空开敞度和相对步行指数。(4)总结各变量的系数空间分异规律,发现不同特征地区住宅价格的主导影响因素不同,核心地区主要受交通、教育因素的影响;...     

长三角房价收入比时空演变格局及收敛性研究

房价收入比是衡量房地产健康状况和探测居民住房支付能力的重要指标。以2008—2018年长三角307个区县为研究单元,运用数值-位序法则和趋势面分析对房价收入比的总体分布特征进行探究,利用LISA时间路径分析房价收入比的时空动态性特征,并检验区域房价收入比的收敛性。结果表明： ① 长三角房价收入比总体上呈上升趋势,空间上表现为东高西低、南高北低的格局,上海、浙江、江苏和安徽依次降低。② 上海和浙江南部房价收入比的空间结构更具动态性,而江苏和安徽更加稳定;长三角房价收入比的空间演化整体上具有较强的空间锁定效应和空间整合性。③ 长三角区县房价收入比整体上不存在σ收敛,但各时间段上均存在显著的绝对β收敛,且各省份内部也均存在着俱乐部收敛现象。城市群房价收入比的变动对居民的流动有着重要的指示作用,并具有扩散效应和虹吸效应。加强城市群房地产市场一体化建设,是促进城市群区域一体化发展的有效途径。     

韩国公寓更新中的居住形式与居民政治倾向关系研究

韩国首尔江南区是富有中产阶层主要聚集区,是政府主导、公众参与的城市空间变化的典型。在韩国,房地产政策是韩国各党派政府维护执政合法性的主要手段,城市更新与公寓重建是提高房价的重要手段,并对不同社会阶层的居住和生活产生不同影响。公寓重建是韩国阶层、党派之间尖锐政治斗争的对象。首尔江南区住民基于自身阶级身份与利益组成利益共同体,参与推动或阻碍公寓重建的活动。每四年一度的国会议员选举中,江南区呈现按住房价格而选择政党的阶级投票的规律。江南区案例表明虽然政府主导了江南区的城市更新与公寓重建,但当重建侵犯到地区住民的利益时,住民社会驱动力随时出现,并以选票形式对其进行反向干预。因此韩国社会团体与政府的互动塑造了江南区特有的阶层分化与住房分布形式。     

英国乡村发展政策演变及启示

诸多成功案例表明,全球化有助于加快经济发展知识与实践的国际转移,将国际知识转移至地区经济发展实践中,为地区发展战略问题提供国际上相关解决方案。英国在其乡村发展历程中也曾经历过与目前中国相类似的发展阶段并遇到相似的发展问题,涉及乡村经济的多样化转型、对新技术和市场扩张的适应和基础设施改善等方面。因此,借鉴英国解决这些问题的经验和教训有助于解决目前中国乡村发展过程中遇到的诸多问题。本文分析了英国乡村发展政策的演变及其阶段性特征,其政策变化的特点主要体现在政策制订由"自上而下"转向"自下而上"、强调政策的综合性、注重乡村发展计划的长远性和可持续性、重视运用法律和市场手段等方面,最后从政策制订、乡村发展计划的实施以及发展项目选择等方面探讨了其对我国乡村发展的政策启示。并指出,考虑到国际乡村发展政策的趋同与差异,任何国际乡村发展政策和模式的采纳均需要根据我国特殊的文化、经济、政治传统和环境予以调整。     

Swimming upstream: addressing fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC

Reducing fossil fuel supply is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep warming ‘well below 2°C’, yet the Agreement is silent on the topic of fossil fuels. This article outlines reasons why it is important that Parties to the Agreement find ways to more explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC. It describes how countries aiming to keep fossil fuel supply in line with Paris goals could articulate and report their actions within the current architecture of the Agreement. It also outlines specific mechanisms of the Paris Agreement through which issues related to the curtailment of fossil fuel supply can be addressed. Mapping out a transition away from fossil fuels – and facilitating this transition under the auspices of the UNFCCC process – can enhance the ambition and effectiveness of national and international climate mitigation efforts.

Key policy insights

• The international commitment to limit global average temperature increases to ‘well below 2°C’ provides a strong rationale for Parties to the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC to pursue a phase-down in fossil fuel production, not just consumption.

• Several countries have already made commitments to address fossil fuel supply, by agreeing to phase down coal or oil exploration and production.

• Integrating these commitments into the UNFCCC process would link them to global climate goals, and ensure they form part of a broader global effort to transition away from fossil fuels.

• The Paris Agreement provides a number of new opportunities for Parties to address fossil fuel production.

     

Risk Assessment and Disaster Management for Natural and Anthropogenically Induced Geologic Hazards: Application to the Preolkhon Region,Western Lake Baikal,Siberia, Russia

In the Western Lake Baikal, recent Baikal Rift's tectonics control the topography, seismicity, climate, geomorphology, and economy. Scarps, facets, structural terraces, horsts and grabens, and trapezoid valleys can be clearly observed. They have been generated by the recent tectonic movements along the faults and represent a serious geologic hazard. The specific geological conditions predetermine a unique variety of landscapes. Thus, the main type of the economy is tourism. However, unorganized tourism leads to the degradation of the unique landscapes. It increases risk and requires disaster management. Three criteria has been used for risk assessment: (1) degree of geologic hazard; (2) degree of landscape degradation; and (3) degree of the economy's vitality. The high ecological significance and low stability to antropogeneous pressure are typical for landscapes of the Western Lake Baikal. Thus, some special activities of disaster management should be implemented based on our investigation.     

世界天然气水合物研究开发现状和前景

回顾了世界天然气水合物研究历史,分析了世界气水合物研究现状和开发前景,评价了全球天然气水合物资源潜势,提出了我国对天然气水合物的研究策略。     

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.