中国综合农业分区下的(A)ngstr(o)m-Prescott公式系数逐月校正与优选

(A)ngstr(o)m-Prescott公式是联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的计算地表有效总太阳辐射(Rs)数据以支持参考作物需水量估算等研究的简便方法.本文以优选中国综合农业分区的(A)ngstr(o)m-Prescott公式系数as、bs为目标,采用最小二乘回归方法,以全国范围内121个地面气象站点1957-...     

基于供求关系的庐山旅游地生命周期驱动力分析

总结前人对旅游地生命周期影响因素的研究,基于经济供求视角,指出旅游产品的供求矛盾是影响旅游地生命周期演化的根本驱动力,构建了旅游产品影响因素的供求矛盾驱动模型。并以"世界文化景观"庐山为例,划分其生命周期阶段,分析各阶段的供求矛盾,验证了供求矛盾驱动模型的科学性和有效性。分析当前庐山旅游的供求矛盾,并提出相应的对策与建议。     

国内就业结构演变与旅游需求关系研究

通过就业结构演变驱动旅游需求的简单反馈模型假设,利用单位根检验(unit root test)、协整检验(cointegra-tion test)和格兰杰因果检验(Granger causality test)计量方法,以我国1984-2006年三大产业的就业人数和国内旅游人次变动数据为依据,探讨国内就业结构演变与旅游需求变化的关系。实证结果表明,三大产业就业结构演变与国内旅游人次的变化具有很强的相关性,其间存在长期稳定的均衡关系且具有正负增长递减的规律;第一产业就业人数的减少是国内旅游需求增长的重要驱动因素。     

基于波动方程的目标导向观测系统设计方法研究

本文提出了复杂构造地区的目标导向观测系统的设计方法.使用波动方程正演模拟来指导并在二维声波方程的一阶速度-应力方程中应用交错网格有限差分法实现.使用了四阶精度的差分算子和完全匹配层吸收边界条件.通过分析理论模型的模拟结果,展示了如何将地面地震响应与地下目标构造匹配.通过分析桥口地区实际地质模型的模拟结果,指出波动方程正演模拟在小断块、小背斜增生的复杂地区中相对于传统方法更精确,图像更清晰,更利于分析和指导观测系统设计.跟踪目标区的反射同相轴并得到其到达地面的接收范围来约束炮检距的范围,通过比较不同道距的模拟记录并综合考虑成本和任务目标来选取最佳道距.最终获得了实际效果达到设计要求的观测系统参数.     

非线性涡旋Rossby波的演变特征

利用多重尺度摄动法，推导出非线性涡旋Rossby波波包的演变方程是非线性Schroedinger方程。对该非线性Schroedinger方程的周期波动解及其稳定性进行了研究，得到了有关稳定和不稳定的判据。数值计算表明：非线性涡旋Rossby波的相速值为10^0m／s量级，这和台风中的螺旋雨带实测移速的量级是一致的，可以从涡旋Rossby波说中较好地解释台风中的螺旋雨带的形成和维持。     

Environmental impacts of urban growth from an integrated dynamic perspective: A case study of Shenzhen, South China

China is home to one-fifth of the world's population and that population is increasingly urban. The landscape is also urbanizing. Although there are studies that focus on specific elements of urban growth, there is very little empirical work that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess the interactions between the dynamics of urban growth and their environmental impacts. In this study, we develop a system dynamics simulation model of the drivers and environmental impacts of urban growth, using Shenzhen, South China, as a case study. We identify three phases of urban growth and develop scenarios to evaluate the impact of urban growth on several environmental indicators: land use, air quality, and demand for water and energy. The results show that all developable land will be urban by 2020 and the increase in the number of vehicles will be a major source of air pollution. Demand for water and electricity will rise, and the city will become increasingly vulnerable to shortages of either. The scenarios also show that there will be improvements in local environmental quality as a result of increasing affluence and economic growth. However, the environmental impacts outside of Shenzhen may increase as demands for natural resources increase and Shenzhen pushes its manufacturing industries out of the municipality. The findings may also portend to changes other cities in China and elsewhere in the developing world may experience as they continue to industrialize.     

Anatomizing the Ocean’s Role in Maintaining the Pacific Decadal Variability

ABSTRACT The role of ocean dynamics in maintaining the Pacific Decadal Variability （PDV） was investigated based on simulation results from the Parallel Ocean Program （POP） ocean general circulation model developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory （LANL）. A long-term control simulation of the LANL-POP model forced by a reconstructed coupled wind stress field over the period 1949-2001 showed that the ocean model not only simulates a reasonable climatology, but also produces a climate variability pattem very similar to observed PDV. In the Equatorial Pacific （EP） region, the decadal warming is confined in the thin surface layer. Beneath the surface, a strong compensating cooling, accompanied by a basin-wide-scale overturning circulation in opposition to the mean flow, occurs in the thermocline layer. In the North Pacific （NP） region, the decadal variability nonetheless exhibits a relatively monotonous pattern, characterized by the dominance of anomalous cooling and eastward flows. A term balance analysis of the perturbation heat budget equation was conducted to highlight the ocean＇s role in main- taining the PDV-like variability over the EP and NP regions. The analyses showed that strong oceanic adjustment must occur in the equatorial thermocline in association with the anomalous overturning circulation in order to maintain the PDV-like variability, including a flattening of the equatorial thermocline slpoe and an enhancement of the upper ocean＇s stratification （stability）, as the climate shifts from a colder regime toward a warmer one. On the other hand, the oceanic response in the extratropical region seems to be confined to the surface layer, without much participation from the subsurface oceanic dynamics.     

THEORETICAL CALCULATION MODEL OF SHORTWAVE RADIATION FOR THE EARTH-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM AND ITS TESTING RESULTS

On the basis of radiation transfer theory,adopting improved two-stream algorithm incorporated with addingalgorithm,we build up a theoretical calculation model of shortwave radiation for the earth-atmosphere system whichcan be applied with satellite data.The model can calculate direct solar radiation,scattering solar radiation,heating rateand other physical quantities of radiation field at every layer of the atmosphere and on the earth's surface,if the under-ground reflectance or the planetary albedo obtained from satellite can be known.The model can be used in clear orcloudy atmosphere,and its calculating speed is fairly fast.We think that the model can be incorporated into large-scaleand mesoscale climatic models for the consideration of radiation calculation,and also it is useful for the utilization of so-lar energy.     

一类常系数线性奇异积分方程的讨论

在“矩形”主值的基础上,获得合成公式,并利用合成公式讨论了一类相应的常系数线性奇异积分方程。     

On the scavenging of SO2 by cloud and raindrops: I. A theoretical study of SO2 absorption and desorption for water drops in air

An extention of our previous theory for trace gas absorption into freely-falling cloud and raindrops is presented. This theory describes the convective diffusion of a trace gas through air and into a water drop with internal circulation, the drop falling at its terminal velocity. Using flow fields for the circulating water inside and for the moving air outside the drop, obtained by numerical solutions to the Navier—Stokes equation of motion, we numerically solved the convective diffusion equation to determine the uptake of SO₂ by water drops of various sizes, time exposure to the gas phase, and concentration of SO₂ in the gas phase. It was found that for drops of radius larger than 1 mm and relatively low gas concentrations (10 ppb (v)), resistance to gas diffusion lies mainly in the gas phase; while for drops of radius less than 500 m and gas concentrations larger than those found in the atmosphere (1% (v)), the resistance to diffusion lies primarily in the liquid phase. With drop sizes and gas concentrations between these limits, the rate of SO₂ uptake is controlled by a coupled resistance to diffusion inside and outside the drop. In addition to our general model, a simplified version was formulated which allows considerable savings in computer time for evaluation and improved ease of handling without significant loss of accuracy. A comparison between our simplified model and that of Barrie (1978) shows that the boundary-layer approach of Barrie may be a useful alternate approach to estimating trace gas absorption by water drops, provided appropriate values are chosen for the thickness of the boundary layers involved.