Nonlinear Evolutionary Mechanisms of Instability of Plane-Shear Slope: Catastrophe, Bifurcation, Chaos and Physical Prediction

Summary. A cusp catastrophe model is presented and the necessary and sufficient conditions leading to landslides are discussed. The sliding surface is assumed to be planar and is a combination of two media: medium 1 is elastic-brittle or strain-hardening and medium 2 is strain-softening. The shear stress-strain constitutive model for the strain-softening medium is described by the Weibull’s distribution law. This paper is a generalization and extension of the paper by Qin et al. (2001b), in which the shear stress-strain constitutive model for medium 2 was described by a negative exponent distribution; a special case of the Weibull’s distribution law. It is found that the instability of the slope relies mainly on both the stiffness ratio of the media and the homogeneity index and that a new role of water is to enlarge the material homogeneity or brittleness and hence to reduce the stiffness ratio. A nonlinear dynamic model (also called a physical forecasting model), which is derived by considering the time-dependent behavior of the strain-softening medium, is used to study the time prediction of landslides. An algorithm of inversion on the nonlinear dynamic model is suggested for seeking the precursory abnormality and abstracting mechanical parameters from the observed series of a landslide. A case study of the Jimingsi landslide is analysed and its nonlinear dynamic model is established from the observation series of this landslide using the suggested model and the algorithm of inversion. It is found that the catastrophic characteristic index |D| shows a quick rise till reaching an extremely high peak value after the slope evolves into the tertiary creep, and subsequently approaches a zero value prior to instability, which can be regarded as an important precursory abnormality index. By taking into account the evolutionary characteristic of the slope being in the secondary creep, a simplified nonlinear dynamic model is proposed for studying the properties of bifurcation and chaos. It is shown that the emergence of chaos depends on the mechanical parameters of the sliding-surface media.     

气象台站历史沿革信息及其对观测资料序列均一性影响的初步分析

气象台站历史沿革信息包含了可能影响气候资料序列均一性的重要信息, 是分析、检验、订正气候资料序列的科学参考依据。文章介绍了气象台站历史沿革信息的基本内容及我国气象台站变动的基本情况, 通过对气象观测资料比较分析, 说明台站迁移、环境变化、观测仪器类型以及观测时制改变, 直接影响到观测记录的比较性和连续性, 对长年代气候资料序列的均一性也有不同程度的影响。     

基于局域同质性梯度的遥感图像分割方法及其评价

提出了一种针对多波段遥感图像的快速分割方法.该方法首先对遥感图像进行量化,然后提取局域同质性梯度图像,进而利用快速分水岭变换进行初始分割,最后利用改进的区域合并方法获得最终的分割结果.利用Quickbird图像进行了相关的实验,并在像素数量误差准则的指导下进行了分割评价,结果表明所提出的方法是一种有效的遥感图像分割方法,在分割速度和精度等方面优于多分辨率分割方法.     

天体化学:地球起源与演化的几个关键问题

以近几年天体化学研究取得的一些重要成果，论述了对于认识地球的起源和演化进程的重要意义。地球主要由一套具有独立化学成分组成的硅酸盐质星子群随机碰撞吸积而成。地球的星子堆积形成方式和初始化学成分的不均一性制约着地球后期的非均一、非均变演化过程。以１８００Ｍａ为转折点，地球的演化具明显的两阶段演化特征：早期以初生壳体———星子源地体的形成和发展为特点，后期以岩石圈板块运动为特点。地球演化史中的地外撞击事件，是太阳系形成机制———碰撞吸积作用的继续，是地质历史生物、沉积、岩浆、构造等演化的重要营力之一。     

极干旱区域台站迁徙前后资料的差异分析——以东疆托克逊站为例

采用新疆托克逊站和参考站(尉犁、东坎两站)1974—2014年观测资料,分析了城市化对托克逊站气候资料的影响,结果表明:地处极干旱区域的托克逊站气温、相对湿度和平均风速与参考站一致性较差,其中,由于城市化发展造成托克逊县的升温率为0.44℃·(10 a)~(-1);均一性检测发现,由于城市化的影响,平均气温、相对湿度、风速均产生了断点。新站与旧站观测资料对比分析发现,由于新旧站环境差异大,使得年相对湿度新站比旧站低4.0%;年平均风速新站偏大1.3 m·s~(-1),年风向相符率低只有49.01%,平均风速全年各月在显著性水平0.05的条件下资料不连续。     

The reliability of global and hemispheric surface temperature records

The purpose of this review article is to discuss the development and associated estimation of uncertainties in the global and hemispheric surface temperature records. The review begins by detailing the groups that produce surface temperature datasets. After discussing the reasons for similarities and differences between the various products, the main issues that must be addressed when deriving accurate estimates, particularly for hemispheric and global averages, are then considered.These issues are discussed in the order of their importance for temperature records at these spatial scales: biases in SST data,particularly before the 1940s; the exposure of land-based thermometers before the development of louvred screens in the late 19th century; and urbanization effects in some regions in recent decades. The homogeneity of land-based records is also discussed; however, at these large scales it is relatively unimportant. The article concludes by illustrating hemispheric and global temperature records from the four groups that produce series in near-real time.     

利用红外卫星云图资料估计降水量方法的研究

在条件气候均匀及范围足够大取样区域,研讨面平均雨强与云覆盖率、云顶表面亮度温度的标准偏差、云覆盖率时间的变化率三者之间的关系,得到用１ｈ间隔的数字化红外卫星资料估计降水的三种模式。通过对１９９１年７月５日、６日、１０日降水过程的实例分析表明,对于日降水量的估计,效果较为理想。模式可用于与邓样时间和地点的相似气象条件区,且不需要对云进行分离和跟踪、考察对流单体的生命史演变过程,便于应用。     

New ID-TIMS, ICP-MS and SIMS Data on the Trace Element Composition and Homogeneity of NIST Certified Reference Material SRM 610-611

We present new concentration data for twenty four lithophile trace elements in NIST certified reference material glasses SRM 610-SRM 611 in support of their use in microanalytical techniques. The data were obtained by solution ICP-MS and isotope dilution TIMS analysis of two different sample wafers. An overall assessment of these new results, also taking into account ion probe studies that have been published in the literature, shows that these wafers can be considered to be homogeneous. Therefore, individually analysed wafers are believed to be representative of the entire batch of the SRM 610-611 glasses. Possible exceptions are the alkali metals (and a few volatile or non-lithophile trace elements). The analysed concentrations range between 370 μg g⁻¹ (Cs) and 500 μg g⁻¹ (Sr) and agree well with published values. On the basis of our new data and data recently published in the literature we propose "preferred average" values for the elements studied. These values are, within a few percent, identical to those proposed by other workers.     

青藏高原气温序列的均一性研究

气象观测资料是气候变化研究的基础, 对气象资料进行均一性检验与订正能够提高气候变化研究的精度和准确性. 利用青藏高原及周边地区1961-2010年65个气象站的逐月平均气温资料, 运用PMFT方法对资料进行均一性检验与订正. 结果表明: 高原平均气温资料均一性状况较差, 有32个站被检测出存在间断点, 占总数的49%. 用订正后均一的气温数据分析得出, 高原1961-2010年年平均气温的升温率为0.32 ℃·(10a)^-1, 春、夏、秋、冬季的升温率依次为0.24 ℃·(10a)^-1、0.26 ℃·(10a)^-1、0.32 ℃·(10a)^-1及0.48 ℃·(10a)^-1, 略小于用原始数据分析得到的结果. 研究还发现, 数据均一与否对高原整体气候变化分析结果影响不大, 但对局地尺度的气候变化分析结果影响较大. 鉴于高原的气候变化具有显著的区域差异性特征, 因此, 未来在对高原进行气候变化的差异性进行研究时, 气象数据均一性的检验与订正工作就显得尤为重要. 为提高数据均一性检验的精度, 未来应加强气候资料均一性检验技术的研究并尽可能详尽地收集台站的元数据信息.     

Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data

Adopting the Easterling-Peterson (EP) techniques and considering the reality of Chinese meteorolog-ical observations, this paper designed several tests and tested for inhomogeneities in all Chinese historicalsurface air temperature series from 1951 to 2001. The result shows that the time series have been widelyimpacted by inhomogeneities resulting from the relocation of stations and changes in local environmentsuch as urbanization or some other factors. Among these factors, station relocations caused the largestmagnitude of abrupt changes in the time series, and other factors also resulted in inhomogeneities to someextent. According to the amplitude of change of the difference series and the monthly distribution featuresof surface air temperatures, discontinuities identified by applying both the E-P technique and supportedby China‘s station history records, or by comparison with other approaches, have been adjusted. Basedon the above processing, the most significant temporal inhomogeneities were eliminated, and China‘s mosthomogeneous surface air temperature series has thus been created. Results show that the inhomogeneitytesting captured well the most important change of the stations, and the adjusted dataset is more reli-able than ever. This suggests that the adjusted temperature dataset has great value of decreasing theuncertaities in the study of‘ observed climate change in China.