2002年6月13日重庆区域大暴雨分析

通过对重庆西部“6 1 3”区域大暴雨的分析 ,发现此次天气过程是一次典型的高原涡与西南涡耦合 ,结合地面弱冷空气条件下产生的 ,同时对ECMWF和T2 1 3数值预报产品进行了简要的分析 ,发现ECMWF和T2 1 3的形势预报能力都比较好 ,但T2 1 3的部分物理量要素和降水量预报能力还有待提高。     

1997年7月19日影响北京地区的暴雨个例分析

针对在实际业务预报中经常遇到的北京地区降水的两种特殊性(明显天气系统移来时，北京地区降水明显比周围偏多或偏少)，选取一个实例利用中尺度非静力模式(MM5)对降水比周围偏多情况进行了高分辨率数值模拟和敏感性试验。结果表明，该模式比较成功地模拟了此次天气过程及其相关的中尺度系统的发生发展，凝结潜热对天气过程的发生发展有重要作用，而地形在天气过程中也起着主要作用，低层潜在不稳定能量的储备和输送是暴雨发生不可缺少的条件。     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

哈密南部暴雨成因分析

通过对 2 0 0 2年 6月 1 8～ 1 9日哈密南部暴雨的环流背景、物理机制、T2 1 3产品的物理量及卫星云图分析 ,揭示形成暴雨的成因     

低空急流与阿勒泰暖区大--暴雪

分析了冬季产生新疆低空急流的大型环流特征及低空急流与阿勒泰暖区大-暴雪的关系。结果表明，在中高纬度欧亚范围内呈现“双阻型”，中亚中纬度高空维持纬向强急流锋区的情况下，若有巴尔喀什湖以南的暖湿气流向北输送，则有利于造成阿勒泰暖区大-暴雪的新疆低空急流产生。高低空急流的位置及强度可作为降雪量和大-暴雪落区的短期预报指标。     

重金属迁移转化模型研究

大量重金属污染物迁移转化的现象和研究成果都表明重金属以泥沙颗粒为载体迁移转化,描述重金属在天然水体中的迁移转化必须紧紧抓住泥沙颗粒运动及重金属与泥沙之间的转化关系进行.为此在对现有的重金属迁移转化数学模型进行概括分类的基础上,根据水沙运动与污染物相互作用关系,分析了泥沙颗粒运动及重金属吸附解吸不平衡过程,并结合水沙数学模型,建立了重金属迁移转化的耦合模型.同时在模型合理性分析的基础上,对模型进行了计算分析,分析表明模型能够合理地反映重金属污染物在水体中的迁移转化过程.     

基于拉格朗日插值法修正地形影响的分布式降水模型研究

降水量一直是进行水文分析计算的输入项，对其分布状况的模拟直接影响水文分析成果精度。降水中心位置及其中心降水量对暴雨分析尤为重要，而目前尚未见对降水中心位置方面的模型研究。在对目前国内外降水模型分析的基础上，根据天气系统降水如不受地形影响其降水量等值线在平面上的分布近似为一组同心椭圆这一原理，建立了一种能够模拟次降水过程的降水中心位置及其中心降水量的新型分布式降水数学模型，并对其进行地形影响因素修正。由于模型建立原理简单，易于实现对流域未设站研究点的实时降水量估计，同时由于模型能够指明降水中心位置及其中心降水量，因此在流域暴雨分析和洪水预报中具有实用价值。模型经实践检验具有较高精度。     

洪山泉流量动态系统分析

为查明洪山泉域的开采程度,在前人研究基础上,建立了现阶段泉流量-降雨量的线性模拟模型。通过对模型的系统辨识,对系统的"慢时变"现象作出了合理解释,并发现系统在1994年以后发生了"快时变",说明开采量从1995年开始迅猛增加。同时,由多年来泉流量序列的自相关分析,发现其宏观周期到2000年基本保持不变,说明虽然第二输入(即人为开采量)对该系统的作用已不可忽略,但尚未达到足以改变其宏观频率的程度。     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.