A simplified approach for vulnerability assessment in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions: application to Grenoble (France)

Due to the moderate seismic risks in France, the building vulnerability assessment methods developed for high seismic risk countries could not easily be used here because of their cost and the low-risk perception among the public and officials. A light vulnerability assessment method is proposed and tested in Grenoble (France), based on classes and scores provided in the GNDT method but simplified in terms of visual screening and number of structural parameters used. Compared to the RiskUE method, the damage obtained by our approach shows that 90% of buildings have residuals smaller than 0.2, i.e. one grade of the EMS98 damage scale. A large scale survey is devised and conducted among the inhabitants of Grenoble in order to collect the main structural parameters. By comparing the results from the survey to the historical urbanization of Grenoble and to expert surveys performed in two urban districts, the information useful for the light method of vulnerability assessment can be rapidly collected by non-experts reducing substantially the estimate cost. The average damage is then computed using the GNDT formula considering the probable intensities which could be observed in Grenoble (VII and VIII). The average damage reaches 0.4 in the oldest part of Grenoble mainly made of masonry buildings and 0.2 in reinforced concrete suburbs where reinforced concrete predominates. The results are a relative vulnerability assessment that provides useful initial information for the urban zones of Grenoble where the vulnerability is higher. This method can be used to classify the seismic vulnerability in wide seismic-prone regions to a fair degree of accuracy and at low cost.     

Influence of the Kunlun Mountain Ms8.1 Earthquake on Horizontal Crustal Deformation in the Sichuan and Yunnan Area

In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999～2001～2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999～2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood.     

Continuous,Direct Gas-Geochemical Monitoring in Hydrothermal Vents: Installation and Long-Term Operation on Nisyros Island (Greece)

In this paper the installation and long-term operation of a system for continuous monitoring of fumarolic gases is described. Several physicochemical and gas-geochemical parameters such as the concentration of CO₂, H₂S and CO in the fumarolic emissions, as well as the temperatures of the hydrothermal steam and soil in close vicinity of the fumarole and steam pressure are measured in short-time intervals (typically 15 seconds). Data are logged on-site and in parallel transferred to a remote station by digital telemetry. Specially developed software enables the real-time observation of the local conditions in the crater and full bidirectional control of the monitoring system. Fluctuations in the monitored parameters are also reported. From the data presented it can be concluded that environmental conditions (direction and strength of wind, precipitation) will interact with some of the parameters monitored. These influences can only be revealed by continuously operated monitoring systems.     

GIS支持下的地震诱发滑坡危险区预测研究

为了满足对地震诱发滑坡危险区预测的不断增长的迫切要求，灾害评价成为帮助决策过程重要的基础工具之一。即使地震滑坡危险性各组份的评价很困难，但地理信息可辅助提出这种灾害制图的有关方法。描述了用于地理信息系统识别和定量计算不同地震滑坡危险区的技术方法，确定了地震烈度、地形坡度、岩土体类型和现存滑坡密度共4个因子参与的地震诱发滑坡危险性分析。在ARC／INFO DRID支持下，进行叠合分析，由此编制了云南省地震诱发滑坡危险区预测图。由地貌学家提出的地震诱发滑坡预测为规划和工程师提供了对区域规划和建筑工程有价值的技术方法。     

环境与健康的评估问题和空间分析

评估环境污染对人民健康影响的研究需要结合空间，时间和统计分析，并吸引不同学科背景的研究人员合作研究，可是，在这个研究领域内，最重要的问题是研究结论的不可靠性程度很高，不同的研究方法会导致不同的结论，一个有系统的研究架构拥有不同的空间分析方法将会减少结论的可疑程度，有效的环保政策是需要可靠的研究成果，文中首先介绍在环境与健康的评估研究领域的四大重要问题，指出这项研究需要这项研究需要空间分析和地理信息系统方法，从而提出一个空间分析的研究框架和内裹的方法，通过路易斯安纳州的一个污染地点和肿瘤发病率关系研究实例，指出这项研究领域的各种问题和空间分析架构的重要性。     

在砂土液化的危险性评价中确定性与不确定性方法的应用研究

地震导致的砂土液化具有很大的随机性。据此 ,提出了评价砂土液化危险性的确定性与不确定性两种方法。确定性方法是以液化指数为变量的多因子判别分析方法 ,不确定性方法是概率分析法 ,即用概率密度函数判断砂土液化灾害的期望损失值。     

大连湾60多年来生态环境地质演化

依据对大连湾60多年来沉积柱的生态环境地质演化研究，发现其污染变化可以分为3个时期：①1933－1974年为洁净时段；②1974－1989年为污染较重时段；③1989－1997年为严重污染时段。若视第一时段的污染度为0，则第二时段的污染度为第一时段的8倍，第三时段的污染度为第一时段的25倍，可见污染度增加是非常迅速和严重的。其中Cd、Pb、As、S、Zn5种元素含量增加最快。1997年大连湾表面沉积物中Cd、Hg、Pb、As的含量分别为自然背景值的81．42倍、6．0倍、7．54倍、3．82倍，表明大连湾污染的严重性。研究发现自1950年以来大连湾生物多样性急剧下降，说明污染度增加已对生命健康造成严惩的影响。大连湾的臭水套已成为一个生物多样性异常低下的、超级污染的环境，是一颗巨大的隐性化学定时炸弹。     

水库洪水标准的风险分析

将标准风险评估方法应用到水库洪水标准的风险分析中，并以柴河水库为例，说明水库洪水标准的风险分析方法是可行的，具有推广价值。     

The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.     

Evolution of accelerographs, data processing, strong motion arrays and amplitude and spatial resolution in recording strong earthquake motion

This paper presents a review of the advances in strong motion recording since the early 1930s, based mostly on the experiences in the United States. A particular emphasis is placed on the amplitude and spatial resolution of recording, which both must be ‘adequate’ to capture the nature of strong earthquake ground motion and response of structures. The first strong motion accelerographs had optical recording system, dynamic range of about 50 dB and useful life longer than 30 years. Digital strong motion accelerographs started to become available in the late 1970s. Their dynamic range has been increasing progressively, and at present is about 135 dB. Most models have had useful life shorter than 5–10 years. One benefit from a high dynamic range is early trigger and anticipated ability to compute permanent displacements. Another benefit is higher sensitivity and hence a possibility to record smaller amplitude motions (aftershocks, smaller local earthquakes and distant large earthquakes), which would augment significantly the strong motion databases. The present trend of upgrading existing and adding new stations with high dynamic range accelerographs has lead to deployment of relatively small number of new stations (the new high dynamic range digital instruments are 2–3 times more expensive than the old analog instruments or new digital instruments with dynamic range of 60 dB or less). Consequently, the spatial resolution of recording, both of ground motion and structural response, has increased only slowly during the past 20 years, by at most a factor of two. A major (and necessary) future increase in the spatial resolution of recording will require orders of magnitude larger funding, for purchase of new instruments, their maintenance, and for data retrieval, processing, management and dissemination. This will become possible only with an order of magnitude cheaper and ‘maintenance-free’ strong motion accelerographs. In view of the rapid growth of computer technology this does not seem to be (and should not be) out of our reach.