Consulting as a threat to local democracy? Flexible management consultants,pacified citizens,and political tactics of strategic development in German cities

These days, it is often claimed that democratic procedures are under threat. The detachment of policy decisions from political debates is partly a result of the increasing influence of non-elected organizations and experts. Following a conceptual discussion of the spatiality of democracy, this paper focuses on management consultants as constraint on collective political participation in urban development; namely on McKinsey and Roland Berger. (De-)democratization is assessed alongside processes of inclusion and exclusion of both topics and people from political decisions. Based on a comparison of strategy-making projects in six German cities, the findings reveal three different types of urban policymaking ranging between expert-led and participatory versions. Despite the differences, each of the projects relied on a notion of passive citizens, who primarily need to be “gotten on board” and who lack the power to make decisions. This paper exposes the political tactics involved in an expert-influenced curtailment of democratic procedures.     

东北地区建设用地开发强度格局演变的空间分异机制

建设用地开发强度是区域建设用地开发利用程度及其对区域人口和经济社会承载强度的综合反映。本文以东北地区179个县域空间为基本研究单元,应用冷热点、空间变差函数、GWR模型等定量方法对建设用地开发强度的时空分异格局演变及分异机制进行了探讨,得出以下结论：① 2000-2015年东北地区建设用地开发强度总体呈现出增长态势,但空间分异显著,各单元间建设用地开发强度高低的相互作用及联动效应较为明显,但建设用地开发强度的空间分布逐渐趋于非均衡,建设用地开发强度的冷热点分布格局与全局分异变化及空间异质性态势基本吻合;② 2000年东北地区开发强度格局分异由政府财政投入力度、用地投资强度和产业结构水平共同影响,到2005-2015年发展演化为政府财政投入力度、用地投资强度、经济发展水平和产业结构水平共同影响;③ 2000-2015年政府财政投入力度、用地投资强度、经济发展水平和产业结构水平与东北地区建设用地开发强度格局分布态势具有一定的关联性,但在不同区域呈现出影响程度的差异性。     

变化背景下的当代中国自然地理学——2017全国自然地理学大会述评

面对变化中的全球环境以及变化中的学科热点,以“变化背景下自然地理学新发展与新挑战”为主题的第一届全国自然地理学大会于2017年11月20-22日在南京召开。聚焦地理学与可持续发展、自然地理要素与过程集成、空间数据挖掘与系统决策等当代自然地理学研究的前沿内容,通过学科前沿理论的凝练,引导自然地理过程研究的继续深化;依托理论与方法创新;在典型流域、区域实现了自然地理过程的初步集成,切实服务于人地耦合视角下的可持续社会决策。深化自然地理学分支学科的过程研究、推进综合自然地理学的发展、提升陆地表层系统观测和模拟水平,将有助于进一步巩固自然地理学在地理科学学科体系中的基础学科地位,为满足国家重大战略需求和全球可持续发展作出重要的学科贡献。     

我国极地航运能力建设和高冰级船队发展对策分析

我国在南极和北极的活动日益增多,参与南北极事务和争取极地资源的利用已经成为国家未来向外扩展的重要举措之一。随着气候变暖,极地冰融速度加快,尤其是北极航运窗口期越来越长,两极资源利用和科考活动的需求量越来越大。而目前我国用于航行两极,尤其是北极的高冰级商业化船队十分缺乏,航运的陆基支持保障能力缺少,这将严重影响我国极地事业和商业航运运营的发展。本文通过对不同冰级船舶的保有量、建造技术能力、船舶运营和极地港口设施等各环节的分析,得出我国缺乏带较高等级冰级符号且可抗浮冰厚度1m及以上的极地航行船舶、相应极地航运能力不足的结论,并提出了我国建设极地航运能力的对策建议,为我国建设一支能在极地航行且带较高等级冰级符号船舶的船队、破冰船队以及建设极地陆基航运支持保障能力等提供决策参考。     

The identification of global strategic shipping pivots and their spatial patterns

In concert with developments in global trade and energy resource transportation, there has been a marked increase in reliance on overseas shipping. Unimpeded marine transportation has therefore become a key issue which influences national maritime interests including the security of trade and energy resources. A strategic shipping pivot thus performs a vital controlling function for global shipping networks. In this study strategic shipping pivots are defined and subdivided into sea hubs, channels and areas. We then develop a model to identify strategic shipping pivots on a global scale. The results show that, depending on differences in location, function, and type, the concept of strategic shipping pivot permits the identification of both spatial and structural differentiation with respect to strategic hubs, corridors, and seas. Now 44 strategic hubs have formed across the globe. These hubs have become the control centers of local shipping network organization. At the same time, seven strategic corridors containing most shipping routes and transportation capacity connect important sea areas, and permit a high-degree of control over the transport of strategic materials. The strategic seas, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific provide vital import and export pathways, so that the formation of strategic shipping pivots is mainly influenced by factors such as physical geographical conditions, the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities, business organization, technical progress, geopolitical patterns and geopolitical disputes. Physical geographical conditions provide the potential foundations for strategic shipping pivots, while the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities and communications determine the strategic value of these points. Finally, business organization, technical progress, and geopolitical disputes all function to strengthen the strategic mechanisms and the mutagenicity of strategic shipping pivots.     

Comprehensive methods for measuring regional multidimensional development and their applications in China

National and international research on regional development has matured from the use of single elements and indicators to the application of comprehensive multi-element and multi-indicator measures. We selected 12 indicators from six dimensions for analysis in this study, including income, consumption, education, population urbanization, traffic, and indoor living facilities. We then proposed the polyhedron method to comprehensively measure levels of regional multidimensional development. We also enhanced the polygon and vector sum methods to render them more suitable for studying the status of regional multidimensional development. Finally, we measured levels of regional multidimensional development at county, city, and provincial scales across China and analyzed spatial differences using the three methods above and the weighted sum method applied widely. The results of this study reveal the presence of remarkable regional differences at the county scale across China in terms of single and multidimensional levels of regional development. Analyses show that values of the regional multidimensional development index (RMDI) are high in eastern coastal areas, intermediate in the midlands and in northern border regions, and low in the southwest and in western border regions. Districts characterized by enhanced and the highest levels of this index are distributed in eastern coastal areas, including cities in central and western regions, as well as areas characterized by the development of energy and mineral resources. The regional distribution of reduced and the lowest levels of this index is consistent with concentrations of areas that have always been impoverished. Correlation analyses of the results generated by the four methods at provincial, city, and county scales show that all are equivalent in practical application and can be used to generate satisfactory measures for regional multidimensional development. Additional correlation analyses between RMDI values calculated using the polyhedron method and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) demonstrate that the latter is not a meaningful proxy for the level of regional multidimensional development.     

Analysis of Spatial Mismatch of Tourism Development in Guangdong Province

The spatial mismatch situation of tourism development in Guangdong Province is analyzed by gravity model and two-dimensional matrix based on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, and the results are visualized using ArcGIS software. This study finds that varying degrees of spatial mismatch exist between the level of tourism development, abundance of tourism resources and accessibility of tourism locations in the 21 cities in Guangdong Province. The gravity centers for tourism economy, tourism resources and tourism location are (113.55° E, 23.00° N), (113.69° E, 23.21° N) and (113.74° E, 22.86° N), respectively. According to the two-dimensional combinatorial matrices, synchronous development is shown in 10 prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-resource abundance combination, whereas it is shown in seven prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-tourism location combination. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are synchronous-double high zones for both combinations, while Foshan, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, Zhongshan and Jieyang are deviating-negative mismatch zones for both combinations. Furthermore, the vast majority of prefecture-level cities within the province currently present mismatching trends in tourism development. Based on the analysis results, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward taking into account the actual situation and opportunities for further tourism development in various prefecture-level cities.     

When does economic development promote mitigation and why?

Is economic development compatible with mitigation? On the one hand, development should promote effective climate policy by enhancing states’ capacities for mitigation. On the other hand, economic growth creates more demand for production, thereby inhibiting emissions reduction. These arguments are often reconciled in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) thesis. According to this approach, development initially increases emissions in poor economies, but begins to lower emissions after a country has attained a certain level of development.

The aim of this article is to determine empirically whether the EKC hypothesis seems plausible in light of emissions trends over the birth and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Drawing on data from the World Bank World Development Indicators and World Resources Institute Climate Data Explorer, it conducts a large-N investigation of the emissions behaviour of 120 countries from 1990 to 2012. While several quantitative studies have found that economic factors influence emissions activity, this article goes beyond existing research by employing a more sophisticated – multilevel – research design to determine whether economic development: (a) continues to be a significant driver once country-level clustering is accounted for and (b) has different effects on different countries. The results of this article indicate that, even after we account for country-level clustering and hold constant the other main putative drivers of emissions activity, economic development tends to inhibit emissions reduction. They also provide strong evidence that emissions trends resemble the EKC, with development significantly constraining emissions reduction in the South and promoting it in the North.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article contributes to the understanding of the (changing) role of economic development in shaping emissions activity. It demonstrates the need for a contextualized, country-specific approach for evaluating the effectiveness of economic development in promoting emissions reduction and uncovers new evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis.     

京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究

京津冀地区是中国重要的人口集聚区和经济增长极,在京津冀协同发展的背景下研究京津冀地区人口与经济的协调发展关系,对于促进区域内经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于京津冀地区2000-2010年各区(县)和2000-2014年各城市的人口、GDP数据,运用人口—经济增长弹性、地理集中度、不一致指数、重心分析等方法探究京津冀地区人口与经济的协调发展关系,结果表明：①在总量规模上,京津冀地区整体人口增长与经济增长的协调度较高,但各城市人口增长与经济增长的协调度存在较大差异。②在空间分布上,从地理集中度来看,京津冀地区人口、经济地理集中度均呈现北部低、中南部高的分布特征,其中北京、天津经济地理集中度高于人口地理集中度,河北多数城市人口地理集中度高于经济地理集中度;从重心来看,京津冀地区整体的人口与经济重心都向东北方向移动,且经济重心的移动幅度大于人口重心,2个重心偏离距离不断加大,此外各城市的人口重心与经济重心也出现不同程度的分离。最后,提出了促进京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展的政策建议。     

京津冀城市群水资源开发利用的时空特征与政策启示

京津冀城市群是中国在国际经济体系中具有最强竞争力的支撑平台之一,也是中国乃至全世界水安全保障难度最大的地区之一。本文主要以2000-2014年数据为基础,采用泰尔系数、变异系数、曲线分析和空间分级分类分析等方法,揭示了京津冀城市群水资源与用水变化的时空特征。结果显示：①绝大多数城市多年平均水资源总量显著减少,干旱化的长期趋势明显,而且北部、西部城市减少幅度更大;②京津冀城市群水资源极度短缺,空间不均衡性呈现先减小后增大的趋势,而且中部和南部城市水资源开发利用潜力更低,缺水更甚;③绝大多数城市用水总量零增长或缓慢负增长,用水结构以工农业用水比重下降为主要特征,各类用水的空间不均衡性保持相对稳定;④用水效率普遍快速提升,空间分布差异呈现先增大后减小的总体趋势。基于此,建议京津冀城市群实施“以水量城”的城镇化政策和“以水定产”的产业政策,完善水生态补偿政策,落实水资源管理红线政策,实现水资源约束下各城市间经济社会与生态环境的协同发展。