Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.     

Rainfall,runoff and shallow groundwater response in a mixed-use,agro-forested watershed of the northeast,USA

Stream and shallow groundwater responses to rainfall are characterized by high spatial variability, but hydrologic response variability across small, agro-forested sub-catchments remains poorly understood. Conceivably, improved understanding in this regard will result in agricultural practices that more effectively limit nutrient runoff, erosion, and pollutant transport. Terrestrial hydrologic response approaches can provide valuable information on stream-aquifer connectivity in these mixed-use watersheds. A study was implemented, including eight stream and co-located shallow groundwater monitoring sites, in a small sub-catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed in the Northeast, USA to advance this ongoing need. During the study period, 100 precipitation-receiving days (i.e., 24-hour periods, midnight to midnight) were observed. On average, the groundwater table responded more to precipitation than stream stage (level change of 0.03 vs. 0.01 m and rainfall-normalized level change estimate of 3.81 vs. 3.37). Median stream stage responses, groundwater table responses, and response ratios were significantly different between sub-catchments (n = 8; p < 0.001). Study area average precipitation thresholds for runoff and shallow groundwater flow were 2.8 and 0.6 cm, respectively. Individual sub-catchment thresholds ranged from 0.5 to 2.8 cm for runoff and 0.2 to 1.3 cm for shallow groundwater flow. Normalized response lag times between the stream and shallow groundwater ranged from −0.50 to 3.90 s·cm⁻¹, indicating that stormflow in one stream section was regulated by groundwater flow during the period of study. The observed differences in hydrologic responses to precipitation advance future modelling efforts by providing examples of how terrestrial groundwater response methods can be used to investigate sub-catchment spatial variability in stream-aquifer gradients with co-located shallow groundwater and stream stage data. Additionally, results demonstrate asynchronous stream and shallow groundwater responses on precipitation-receiving days, which may hold important implications for modelling hydrologic and biogeochemical fate and transport processes in small, agro-forested catchments.     

Is the soil moisture precipitation feedback enhanced by heterogeneity and dry soils? A comparative study

The interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere is a crucial driver of atmospheric processes. Soil moisture and precipitation are key components in this feedback. Both variables are intertwined in a cycle, that is, the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for which involved processes and interactions are still discussed. In this study the soil moisture – precipitation feedback is compared for the sempiternal humid Ammer catchment in Southern Germany and for the semiarid to subhumid Sissili catchment in West Africa during the warm season, using precipitation datasets from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), from the German Weather Service (REGNIE) and simulation datasets from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the hydrologically enhanced WRF-Hydro model. WRF and WRF-Hydro differ by their representation of terrestrial water flow. With this setup we want to investigate the strength, sign and variables involved in the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for these two regions. The normalized model spread between the two simulation results shows linkages between precipitation variability and diagnostic variables surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence above the surface and convective available potential energy in both study regions. The soil moisture – precipitation feedback is evaluated with a classification of soil moisture spatial heterogeneity based on the strength of the soil moisture gradients. This allows us to assess the impact of soil moisture anomalies on surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence, convective available potential energy and precipitation. In both regions the amount of precipitation generally increases with soil moisture spatial heterogeneity. For the Ammer region the soil moisture – precipitation feedback has a weak negative sign with more rain near drier patches while it has a positive signal for the Sissili region with more rain over wetter patches. At least for the observed moderate soil moisture values and the spatial scale of the Ammer region, the spatial variability of soil moisture is more important for surface-atmosphere interactions than the actual soil moisture content. Overall, we found that soil moisture heterogeneity can greatly affect the soil moisture – precipitation feedback.     

Hydrological evaluation of the LPX dynamic global vegetation model for small river catchments in the UK

Assessments of water resources by using macro‐scale models tend to be conducted at the continental or large catchment scale. However, security of freshwater supplies is a local issue and thus necessitates study at such a scale. This research aims to evaluate the suitability of the Land Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX‐DGVM) for simulating runoff for small catchments in the UK. Simulated annual and monthly runoff is compared against the National River Flow Archive streamflow observations from 12 catchments of varying size (500–10 000 km²) and climate regimes. Results show that LPX reproduces observed inter‐annual and intra‐annual runoff variability successfully in terms of both flow timings and magnitudes. Inter‐annual variability in flow timings is simulated particularly well (as indicated by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.7 for the majority of catchments), whereas runoff magnitudes are generally slightly overestimated. In the densely populated Thames catchment, these overestimations are partly accounted for by water consumption. Seasonal variability in runoff is also modelled well, as shown by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.9 for all but one catchment. Absence of river routing and storage from the model, in addition to precipitation uncertainties, is also suggested as contributing to simulated runoff discrepancies. Overall, the results show that the LPX‐DGVM can successfully simulate runoff processes for small catchments in the UK. This study offers promising insights into the use of global‐scale models and datasets for local‐scale studies of water resources, with the eventual aim of providing local‐scale projections of future water distributions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and extreme events on the Loess Plateau of China between 1957 and 2009

Spatiotemporal trends in precipitation may influence vegetation restoration, and extreme precipitation events profoundly affect soil erosion processes on the Loess Plateau. Daily data collected at 89 meteorological stations in the area between 1957 and 2009 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation on the Loess Plateau and the return periods of different types of precipitation events classified in the study. Nonparametric methods were employed for temporal analysis, and the Kriging interpolation method was employed for spatial analysis. The results indicate a small decrease in precipitation over the Loess Plateau in last 53 years (although a Mann–Kendall test did not show this decrease to be significant), a southward shift in precipitation isohyets, a slightly delayed rainy season, and prolonged return periods, especially for rainstorm and heavy rainstorm events. Regional responses to global climate change have varied greatly. A slightly increasing trend in precipitation in annual and sub‐annual series, with no obvious shift of isohyets, and an evident decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events were detected in the northwest. In the southeast, correspondingly, a more seriously decreasing trend occurred, with clear shifts of isohyets and a slightly decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events. The result suggests that a negative trend in annual precipitation may have led to decreased soil erosion but an increase in sediment yield during several extreme events. These changes in the precipitation over the Loess Plateau should be noted, and countermeasures should be taken to reduce their adverse impacts on the sustainable development of the region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stable isotopic compositions and controlling factors of precipitation and atmospheric vapour in the headwaters of the Shule River

Stable isotopic compositions of precipitation (δ¹⁸O_p, δ²H_p and d-excess_p) and atmospheric vapour (δ¹⁸O_v, δ²H_v and d-excess_v) with high spatial–temporal resolution are crucial in revealing hydrologic cycle. Based on the variation characteristics of δ¹⁸O_p/δ¹⁸O_v, δ²H_p/δ²H_v and d-excess_p/d-excess_v in the headwaters of the Shule River (HSR) on hourly and daily scales from June to September 2018, this study analysed the relationships between δ¹⁸O_p/δ²H_p and δ¹⁸O_v/δ²H_v combined with the equilibrium fractionation model, as well as δ¹⁸O_p/δ¹⁸O_v and meteorological factors. The slopes of local meteoric water line (LMWL) and the δ²H_v-δ¹⁸O_v fitting equation were similar (7.96 and 7.94) with both intercepts exceeding 10, reflecting the great contribution of recycling moisture. The values of δ¹⁸O_v/δ²H_v were lower than δ¹⁸O_p/δ²H_p but with consistent variation patterns throughout the period. The equilibrium simulation results suggested that precipitation and atmospheric vapour almost approached isotopic equilibrium state, especially during monsoon intrusion period. Affected by monsoon intrusion, the slopes and intercepts of the LMWLs and the δ²H_v-δ¹⁸O_v fitting equations were smaller than those during non-monsoon period and d-excess and δ¹⁸O were negatively correlated. Relative humidity had significant negative correlations with δ¹⁸O_p and δ¹⁸O_v in the whole period, however, the positive correlations between δ¹⁸O_p/δ¹⁸O_v and temperature were observed during non-monsoon and monsoon intrusion period, respectively. Our results demonstrated that precipitation and atmospheric vapour isotopic compositions exhibited consistency under the influence of diverse moisture sources, while more complex relationships were found between δ¹⁸O_p/δ¹⁸O_v and meteorological factors. This research provided evidence for using the isotopic compositions of atmospheric vapour to indicate moisture sources, and can improve understanding of the water cycle and eco-hydrological process from the perspective of the interaction between water and gas phases of the inland river basin in northwest China.     

The carbon isotope composition of C<Superscript>3</Superscript> herbaceous plants in loess area of northern China

¹³C of 367 C₃ herbaceous plants was measured in loess area in northern China. Their δ¹³C values vary between −21.7%. and −30.0%., with a mean of −26.7%.. In the center of Loess Plateau (semimoist area) with annual precipitation of 400–600 mm, the δ¹³ C values of C₃ herbaceous plants range from −24.4%. to −28.5%., with a mean of −27.5%.. In the west of Loess Plateau (semiarid and arid area) with annual precipitation less than 400 mm, they range between −21.7%. and −30.0%., with a mean of −26.2%.. Annual precipitation is the main factor that makes δ¹³C values of C₃ herbaceous plants in the west greater than those in the central Loess Plateau. The composition of δ¹³C in C₃ plants increases with deceasing annual precipitation, and the mean change is −49%./100 mm.