Alpine medicinal plant trade and Himalayan mountain livelihood strategies

Commercial alpine medicinal plants are collected from the wild by local rural households throughout the Himalaya and sold in order to increase household incomes. Recent studies indicate that this annual trade amounts to thousands of tonnes of roots, rhizomes, tubers, leaves, etc., worth millions of US dollars. The main market is in India. Based on a national survey, including the most commonly traded species, and a village study this paper investigates the importance of the alpine medicinal plant trade at national and local levels in Nepal. The national survey included standardized open-ended interviews with 232 harvesters, 64 local traders, 66 central wholesalers, 47 regional wholesalers, and 16 production companies. The village survey is based on the daily records of household activities in 15 households in a one-year period. The annual Nepalese alpine and sub-alpine medicinal plant trade is conservatively estimated to vary from 480 to 2500 t with a total harvester value of US$0.8–3.3 million; the average harvester value is estimated at US$66.0 ± 99.0. The trade in 1997/98 amounted to 1600 t with a harvester value of US$2.3 million and an export value equivalent to 2.5% of total export from Nepal. Medicinal plant harvesting was found to constitute an integrated part of local livelihood strategies, contributing from 3 to 44% (average of 12%) of the annual household income. Importance at household level depended on land and animal holdings, and the availability of adult male labour. The validity and reliability of methods and analyses is evaluated, and issues of conservation and management of alpine medicinal plant species under the community forestry scheme are discussed.     

合肥市耕地和粮食可持续发展研究

收集1980～1999年合肥市耕地、人口、粮食等资料，定量分析在城市化快速发展下耕地的数量、质量变化和耕地减少的形式以及人口、粮食的变化，并用回归法分析它们的变化趋势。研究认为，在2005，2010年合肥市食物保障能力分别为97％和95％，对粮食生产与其影响因素进行了灰色关联分析，提出提高粮食产量的对策和实现途径。     

台湾西南部泥岩土地利用型态与环境劣化趋势之分析

台湾泥岩恶地因其特殊之土壤理化性质及区域微气候的相互恶性循环，衍生生态环境等问题。在以往之35年，裸化面积从1967年的2532hm^2，至2001年11月已扩大为15539hm^2。其表土大量流失、崩塌、河川含砂量激增、植被退化与微气候变异等破坏，更显示泥岩之环境劣化问题。以SPOT卫星影像判识泥岩裸露面积，探讨不同时期之地景变异，并应用地景生态理论量化泥岩地表不同土地利用之空间结构变化，分析地景结构变迁之生态内涵与生态指标意义。因子分析结果其主要变异为多样性因子与形状破碎型因子所影响，而应用马可夫链模式计算出不同时期之土地利用变迁内涵，此结果搭配指标分析可解释泥岩裸露面积与竹林面积皆持续扩大，乃由人为土地利用之活动及植被变迁所引起。     

新疆乌鲁木齐地区多年水氡观测资料的统计与分析

通过对乌鲁木齐地区1980—7．001年的水氡观测资料进行全时域扫描分析，以乌鲁木齐为中心300km范围内Ms≥5．0的地震事件为研究对象，挑选出观测资料中异常时段，用地震预报效能评价评分的方法对水氡观测资料预报地震的能力进行评价。     

大型双槽渡槽地震反应分析

为了得到比较精确的大型双槽渡槽结构的地震反应，根据渡槽结构复杂、影响动力因素较多等特点，采用8结点空间块体单元对渡槽槽身和槽墩进行有限元离散，分别用耦合自由度和多个弹簧单元分别模拟渡槽槽身横向拉杆、加劲肋和盆式橡胶支座，建立了大型双槽渡槽结构地层反应分析的有限元模型，计算了南水北调水利工程中的双洎河大型双槽渡槽的振动特性，并分别用反应谱法和时程分析法对该渡槽进行了地震反应分析，计算结果可为该渡槽的抗震设计提供参考。     

Seismic response predictions of multi‐span steel bridges through pushover analysis

In the new trend of seismic design methodology, the static pushover analysis is recommended for simple or regular structures whilst the time‐history analysis is recommended for complex structures. To this end, the applicable range of the pushover analysis has to be clarified. This study aims at investigating the applicability of pushover analysis to multi‐span continuous bridge systems with thin‐walled steel piers. The focus is concentrated on the response demand predictions in longitudinal or transverse directions. The pushover analysis procedure for such structures is firstly summarized and then parametric studies are carried out on bridges with different types of superstructure‐pier bearing connections. The considered parameters, such as piers' stiffness distribution and pier–0.5ptdeck stiffness ratio, are varied to cover both regular and irregular structures. Finally, the relation of the applicability of pushover analysis to different structural formats is demonstrated and a criterion based on the higher modal contribution is proposed to quantitatively specify the applicable range. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

压裂井经济分析的优化方法

水力压裂是油气井增产的一项重要技术措施。压裂效果的经济评价，实际上是一个压裂设计的优化过程。研究经济问题即为研究压裂优化问题。提出了压裂井的施工费用计算方法和贴现率、净收入、净现值的计算公式，并对压裂井进行了经济分析，给出了压裂设计优化的步骤。建立了八屋—后五家户气田压裂经济评价模型，并应用到实际施工现场。使油气单井产量比过去增加2～3倍。     

Mechanisms of riverbank failure along the Arno River,central Italy

Riverbanks along the Arno River have been investigated with the aims of de?ning the main mechanisms of failure and retreat, their spatial distribution, and their causes. Geomorphological aspects were investigated by a reconnaissance of riverbank processes, for a number (26) of representative sites. Laboratory and in situ tests were then performed on a selected number of riverbanks (15). Based on the material characteristics, six main typologies of riverbanks have been de?ned, with homogeneous ?ne‐grained and composite banks representing the most frequent types. Slab‐type failures are the most frequent mechanism observed on ?ne‐grained banks, while cantilever failures prevail on composite banks. The role of river stage and related pore water pressure distributions in triggering the main observed mechanisms of failure has been investigated using two different types of stability analysis. The ?rst was conducted for 15 riverbanks, using the limit equilibrium method and considering simpli?ed hypotheses for pore water pressure distribution (annulment of negative pore pressures in the portion of the bank between low water stage and peak stage). Stability conditions and predicted mechanisms of failure are shown to be in reasonably good agreement with ?eld observations. Three riverbanks, representative of the main alluvial reaches of the river, were then selected for a more detailed bank stability analysis, consisting of: (a) de?nition of characteristic hydrographs of the reach with different return periods; (b) modelling of saturated and unsaturated ?ow using ?nite element seepage analysis; and (c) stability analysis with the limit equilibrium method, by adopting pore water pressure values derived from the seepage analysis. The results are compared to those obtained from the previous simpli?ed analysis, and are used to investigate the different responses, in terms of stability, to different hydrological and riverbank conditions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of inclined hemisphere projections for analyzing failure mechanisms in discontinuous rocks

This paper demonstrates the advantages of using inclined stereographic projections in kinematic analysis of rock blocks in discontinuous rock masses. Some examples of limiting cases are presented. The application of inclined projections is illustrated by its use in a mine slope in Brazil. It is clear from the discussion of these examples that inclined hemisphere projections provide better results than horizontal projections. It is also demonstrated that horizontal projections can lead to incorrect results in limiting cases.