利用EOF相空间分析东亚梅雨旱涝长期过程的初步研究

利用非线性动力学中的相空间概念,分析了梅雨旱涝3～5年循环的长期过程.对全球热带850hPa的纬向风场距平所作的EOF,第1特征向量显示了Walker环流异常在赤道球圈上的分布;第2特征向量主要显示热带-副热带之间的环流异常的经向分布.在第1时间系数和第2时间系数所定义的2维相空间中,由相轨线分析,得到梅雨涝年主要集中于第2象限,而旱年则相对多在第4象限.说明梅雨旱涝年际变异的主导模态和热带大气环流的主要特征向量有着密切的关联.它们显示了以3～5年时间尺度的大气环流演变的长期特征性过程.     

A nonlinear time-lag differential equation model for predicting monthly precipitation

This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space con-tinuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms of the time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthly rainfall datasets from Changsha station Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the an-nual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating for the wet season.     

利用EOF作相空间拓展与有限区域大气系统混沌吸引子维数的确定

提出用自然正交函数分解的方法来开拓相空间，从而研究有限区域上大气系统的混沌性质。与利用时间滞后作漂移来开拓相空间方法相比较，前者充分保证了相空间各基矢量的正交性，弥补了后者只能对单点资料进行计算的不足。文中利用欧洲中期数值天气预报中心1980－1986年北半球亚洲地区的500hPa位势高度场逐日格点资料进行了EOF分解并计算得到了该地区大气系统的分维数为D＝6．2，从而表明，为支撑该地区大气系统的混沌吸引子至少应取7维系统或以7个变量才能作出描述。     

方差分析法在定点核旋观测资料质量检验中的应用

本文以地磁场的空间相关性为物理依据，以测点间测值线性回归方程的显著程度，为测点测值的质量检验标准，采用方差分析和相关系数法，以月为时段，分别计算了省内１９９２年１至１０月，１０个地磁台站的Ｆ，ｒ，Ｓ检验结果。结果表明，两种方法的检验效果相似。而方差分析法，在分辨率和准确性方面，明显优于相关系数法。按计算时段，选取标准台的办法，利于克服单一标准台的不足和空间磁场差异性变化对测点测值质量评估的影响。     

从屏幕色到印刷的转换方法

从屏幕色到印刷的转换方法朱元泓。是，人们感到头痛的是屏。的效果。为了达到理想的印刷色土要进行多次重复尝试（从修改荧光屏，浪费材料，特别是多色地图电子复制设计Ａ屏幕色转换为印刷色的新方法，即逆解组纶堡方ｄ值修正法，并说明两种方法可达到的精度。ｊ色通过红...     

大别山绿辉石晶体结构的再研究—兼与谢窦克等同志商榷

谢窦克等曾测定了大别山一个绿辉石的晶体结构，认为它具Ｐ２／ｃ空间群；四面体链分别呈ＳＡ和ＯＢ扭转；Ｍ阳离子日位全部为６次配位的八面体：Ａｌ在所有这四种晶位另均有相当多的占有率，为绿辉石的新型结构。本文对该资料再研究后确认其真实空间群为Ｐ２／ｎ；结构中仅有一种Ｏ旋转的四面体链；Ｍ２和Ｍ２晶位为８次配位；Ａｌ全部进入Ｍ１（１）晶位，Ａｌ－Ｍｇ呈完全有序分布，属典型的Ｐ２／ｎ有序绿辉石。本文给出了重新计     

旅游区游憩活动地域组合研究

针对市场导向的旅游开发战略与旅游地规划设计的整合问题,从游憩角度探讨解决这一问题的方法和技术,论文分析了游憩需求与游憩活动,设施和环境之间的相互关系,认为旅游地是由游憩活动,设施和环境及其支持系统旅游地规划的中心内容是游憩规划,游憩活动地域组合具有４种类型,３种模式。     

Assessing parameter identifiability for multiple performance criteria to constrain model parameters

ABSTRACT

Reliable simulations of hydrological models require that model parameters are precisely identified. In constraining model parameters to small ranges, high parameter identifiability is achieved. In this study, it is investigated how precisely model parameters can be constrained in relation to a set of contrasting performance criteria. For this, model simulations with identical parameter samplings are carried out with a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to three contrasting catchments in Germany (lowland, mid-range mountains, alpine regions). Ten performance criteria including statistical metrics and signature measures are calculated for each model simulation. Based on the parameter identifiability that is computed separately for each performance criterion, model parameters are constrained to smaller ranges individually for each catchment. An iterative repetition of model simulations with successively constrained parameter ranges leads to more precise parameter identifiability and improves model performance. Based on these results, a more consistent handling of model parameters is achieved for model calibration.     

The development of stochastic space transformation and diagrammatic perturbation techniques in subsurface hydrology

This paper develops concepts and methods to study stochastic hydrologic models. Problems regarding the application of the existing stochastic approaches in the study of groundwater flow are acknowledged, and an attempt is made to develop efficient means for their solution. These problems include: the spatial multi-dimensionality of the differential equation models governing transport-type phenomena; physically unrealistic assumptions and approximations and the inadequacy of the ordinary perturbation techniques. Multi-dimensionality creates serious mathematical and technical difficulties in the stochastic analysis of groundwater flow, due to the need for large mesh sizes and the poorly conditioned matrices arising from numerical approximations. An alternative to the purely computational approach is to simplify the complex partial differential equations analytically. This can be achieved efficiently by means of a space transformation approach, which transforms the original multi-dimensional problem to a much simpler unidimensional space. The space transformation method is applied to stochastic partial differential equations whose coefficients are random functions of space and/or time. Such equations constitute an integral part of groundwater flow and solute transport. Ordinary perturbation methods for studying stochastic flow equations are in many cases physically inadequate and may lead to questionable approximations of the actual flow. To address these problems, a perturbation analysis based on Feynman-diagram expansions is proposed in this paper. This approach incorporates important information on spatial variability and fulfills essential physical requirements, both important advantages over ordinary hydrologic perturbation techniques. Moreover, the diagram-expansion approach reduces the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance function.     

Mental Maps and Fuzziness in Space Preferences*

Mental maps are widely used to represent aggregate residential preferences in a population. This study examines the contention by researchers that the dominant viewpoint in a group in terms of residential desirability is not affected by the fuzziness in individual space preferences. Results indicate that a significant misrepresentation of group preferences can result when fuzziness of individual preferences is overlooked. The use of ordinal scales to generate mental maps is likely to distort the actual pattern of residential preferences that dominates in the group because of the failure of the ranking approach to account for imprecision and ambiguity in individual preferences. Because interval scales used in rating or evaluating tasks do not force individuals to give a crisp judgement of places, they are more adequate than ordinal scales for mental mapping and for behavioral analysis.