东亚副热带西风急流的变化特征

利用1979-2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了东亚副热带西风急流的变化特征。结果表明:东亚副热带西风急流中心位置、强度有明显的季节变化,冬季偏东偏南、强度最强,夏季偏北偏西、强度最弱。冬半年东亚副热带西风急流南界、北界年际变化的幅度大,夏半年幅度较小。冬季、春季东亚副热带西风急流范围较大,秋季、夏季小,一年内,偏大年或偏小年的出现不具有季节的连续性。     

工程结构三维疲劳裂纹最大应力强度因子计算

介绍了裂纹的类型、裂纹尖端应力场的奇异性。以一维问题为例,推导论证了奇异单元能够很好的反映裂纹尖端应力场的奇异性。应力强度因子一般表达式表明应力强度因子与载荷呈线性关系,并依赖于物体和裂纹的几何形状和尺寸。本文借助大型通用有限元软件ANSYS,采用位移外插法计算了三维表面裂纹前沿不同位置处的应力强度因子,并与《应力强度因子手册》基于实验的理论公式计算结果相比较。结果表明:有限元结果与理论解误差较小,裂纹最深处应力强度因子最大。     

云南澜沧江中南段多金属成矿谱系分析

基于GIS空间分析技术,对云南澜沧江中南段多金属矿床的赋矿地层时间谱系、容矿构造空间谱系和矿床成因谱系进行了较系统的分析.研究表明,下-中元古界、三叠系、泥盆系、二叠系是本区最重要的赋矿层位,有两个聚矿期和多个时代地层含矿的特点,不同时代地层的含矿性具有多样性和专属型特征,元古宙火山沉积为主的建造是铁-铜、钨-锡矿为主的赋矿层位,晚古生代-中生代早期是沉积、裂谷火山活动强烈时期,金、铜、铅、锌、银、汞、锑、钨、锡多金属矿床高度聚集.自东向西为中生代坳陷区金、铜、镍成矿带,思茅-龙洞河晚古生代-三叠纪沉积盆地铜、铅、锌、银成矿带,岩浆弧地块钨、锡、铅-锌、铁成矿带,浅变质岩基底铅-锌-银、铁成矿带,被动边缘活动带金、铅-锌-银、锡成矿区和保山-镇康微地块铅-锌、铜、铁、汞成矿带,构成了容矿构造空间谱系.全区多金属矿床有沉积、沉积改造、岩浆-变质热液、火山沉积-火山热液四大成矿谱系,14种成矿类型,铜多金属、铅-锌-银、锡-钨矿床是研究区最具找矿前景的优势矿种.     

2006年温州珊溪水库地震序列特征

通过分析2006年2月温州珊溪水库地震序列的时空强分布特征,得到该序列具有①频度高、衰减慢、持续时间长;②震中分布集中且呈北西向展布;③震源浅;④各台站P波初动符号基本保持不变;⑤较大地震发生前,空间上出现空段,时间上表现为“增强—平静—发震”;⑥h值先变小后变大,b值缓慢变大等特点。结合地震应急时的预报实践,重点研究了地震趋势判断中比较有效的指标或参量,希望能为以后珊溪水库地震趋势的预报提供借鉴。     

Abundance,distribution, and feeding patterns of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Juan de Fuca Eddy

The Juan de Fuca Eddy is a seasonal, counter-clockwise gyre off the mouth of the Strait of Juan de Fuca between Washington, USA and British Columbia, Canada that may provide favorable feeding habitat for juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) during their early marine existence. In late September 2002, physical and biological sampling was conducted along two transects of the eddy region. Surface rope trawling was conducted to capture juvenile salmon and other nekton, along with bongo and neuston net tows to examine potential mesozooplanktonic salmon prey. Presence of the Juan de Fuca Eddy was confirmed with vertical water profiles. In addition, nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations collected from 3-m depth were within the range observed in previous studies within the eddy region. In the mesozooplankton community, euphausiids, chaetognaths, and decapod megalopae were common. In the diet of juvenile coho salmon, euphausiids and decapod megalopae were dominant by percent number, and larval and juvenile fish were dominant by percent weight. Feeding intensity (percent body weight) based on stomach contents was variable, but not significantly different among stations. To compare the Juan de Fuca Eddy region with an upwelling area, we sampled along a transect off La Push (LP), Washington, USA which is south of the eddy. The eddy region was found to be less productive than the LP transect. Nutrients were lower, chlorophyll a concentrations were higher, and zooplankton abundance was generally higher along the LP transect than in the eddy region. In addition, more juvenile coho salmon were captured from the LP transect than the eddy region. Prey items in stomachs of salmon from the LP transect were heterogeneous compared to those from the eddy region. Feeding intensity along the LP transect was slightly lower and more variable than in the eddy region, and differences in feeding intensity among LP stations were significant. In addition, feeding intensities among stations nested within regions were significantly different.     

防海胆食害藻礁的设计及实验研究

人工藻礁是进行藻场建设的重要手段,但由于海胆等食藻类生物的摄食,将会影响藻类的生长,从而影响人工藻场的建设效果.为解决人工藻场建设中海胆的食害问题,从礁体自身设计出发,实验设计了8种不同形状的藻礁,选用光棘球海胆和中间球海胆为实验对象,观察比较了不同形状藻礁对海胆攀爬的阻碍效果,实验发现:侧周面为锯齿形或侧周面缠挂多孔柔性材料的礁型可有效阻止海胆攀爬,起到防止海胆摄食礁顶藻类的目的.研究结果为人工藻礁的设计提供了参考依据.     

Spatial Distribution Assessment and Source Apportionment of Land-Based Pollutant Yield from Qingdao,China

The spatial distribution of chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) yield from Qingdao are studied by comparing pollutant yield amount, densities and spatial aggregation(Getis-Ord indexes) among the land-based pollutant source regions(PSRs) entering the three sub-seas(i.e. the Jiaozhou Bay(JZB), other coastal area in the Yellow Sea(OCAYS) and Laizhou Bay(LZB), respectively). Industrial composition of the loads are also studied by comparing pollutant yield among the sources of agriculture, rural domesticity, industry, urban domesticity and service, and calculation of Gini coefficient. Results show that spatial distribution of COD and TN yield from Qingdao are extremely unbalanced. The JZB, with less than 3% of the total coastal sea area of Qingdao, received 62% COD load and 65% TN yield from Qingdao, while the OCAYS, with more than 97% area, only received 23% COD and 20% TN, which consist with the much worsen water quality of JZB than that of OCAYS. On the other hand, the source apportionment of COD and TN loads in the PSRs entering JZB and the OCAYS was similar. The agricultural and domestic sources with high pollution intensity account for more than 80%, while the industrial and service sources with low pollution intensity account for less than 20%. While Gini coefficients, COD 0.81 and TN 0.84 which are much higher than the ‘imbalance' threshold of 0.4, show the uneven industrial structure of Qingdao. These results may be useful in the determination of land-based pollution total amount control at the PSR level.     

中国碳强度关键影响因子的机器学习识别及其演进

碳强度影响因子数量众多,通过在众多因子中评估其重要性以识别出关键影响因子进而解析碳强度关键因子的变化规律,是中国2030年碳强度能否实现比2005年下降60%~65%目标的科学基础。传统的回归分析方法对于评估众多因子的重要性存在多重共线性等问题,而机器学习处理海量数据则具有较好的稳健性等优点。本文从能源结构、产业结构、技术进步和居民消费等方面选取了56个中国碳强度影响因子指标,采用随机森林算法基于信息熵评估了1980-2014年逐年各项因子的重要性,通过指标数量与信息熵的对应关系统一筛选出每年重要性最大的前22个指标作为相应年度关键影响因子,最终依据关键影响因子的变化趋势划分了3个阶段作了演进分析。结果发现：1980-1991年,碳强度的关键因子主要以高耗能产业规模及占比、化石能源占比和技术进步为主;1992-2007年,中国经济进入快车道增长时期,服务业占比和化石能源价格对碳强度的影响作用开始显现,居民传统消费的影响作用在增大;2008年全球金融危机后,中国进入经济结构深化调整时期,节能减排力度大大增强,新能源占比和居民新兴消费的影响作用迅速显现。为实现2030年碳强度下降60%~65%目标,优化能源结构和产业结构,促进技术进步,提倡绿色消费,强化政策调控是未来需要采取的主要措施。     

旅游地快速交通优势度与旅游流强度的空间耦合分析

以典型旅游地—云南省为研究案例,以高德交通大数据、统计数据等多源数据为基础,依据“路网及站点密度+通行规模+通行功能+区位优势度+换乘便捷度”的思路,构建快速交通优势度模型;基于旅游流“规模→消费→效益→效应”的历时性维度构建旅游流强度模型;采用加权TOPSIS法对二者评价值进行测算,并运用耦合四象限模型对两者耦合类型进行划分。结果发现：① 快速交通与旅游流耦合存在显著空间差异性。昆明、红河和丽江呈现良性耦合协调,耦合类型表现为“高旅游流-高快速交通优势”,而旅游化水平低、远离交通枢纽和主要交通干线的边缘地区,旅游流与快速交通耦合效应则表现为“低旅游流-低快速交通优势”。② 快速交通优势度与旅游流强度呈正相关关系,不同快速交通方式与旅游流强度的拟合优度表现为“航空运输>高速公路>高速铁路”的特征。③ 云南省快速交通优势度与旅游流强度耦合水平总体偏低,快速交通发展的主导模式为协调互补模式,且缘于快速交通的“时间-空间收敛”效应和“组织-空间协同”效应,快速交通组合类型多样化与旅游流强度存在正相关关系。不同快速交通发展模式对旅游流强度的贡献效应表现出“多元共生模式>协调互补模式>单类孤立模式>低速交通维持模式”的特征。     

Temporal Variations and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Use Intensity in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015

Based on the cost-income data of agricultural products and relevant statistical data, taking major grain crops and economic crops in the process of cultivated land use as study cases, we studied characteristics of the temporal variation of cultivated land use intensity and its composition in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015, and then analyzed its main driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The total intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a rising trend from 919.73 Yuan ha^-1 in 1980 to 3285.06 Yuan ha^-1 in 2015, and the average annual intensity of economic crops was higher than that of grain crops. The labor cost and material cost of major crops both showed an increasing trend, but the material input was much higher than labor input for grain crops, while the labor input was much higher than material input for economic crops. (2) The labor intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend from 501.75 man-day ha^-1 in 1980 to 161.93 man-day ha^-1 in 2015. The labor intensity of grain crops was lower than that of economic crops and its decline rate was fast. On the contrary, the capital intensity showed an increasing trend from 518.33 Yuan ha^-1 in 1980 to 1159.95 Yuan ha^-1 in 2015. In the internal composition of capital intensity, the proportion of yield-increasing inputs such as seed, farmyard manure, fertilizer, pesticide and drainage and irrigation decreased gradually, while the proportion of labor-saving inputs such as agricultural machinery increased significantly. (3) The cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Province had significant negative correlations with the amount of agricultural labor and cultivated land area per capita. The primary direct driving factor was the net income per unit cost of major crops, but the time response lagged by 1-3 years. The main indirect driving factor was the reform of agricultural policy.