信息扩散技术在重大雷灾预测中的应用

对重大雷灾的研究和预测能够为防灾减灾及政府相关部门的决策提供科学依据。由于历年重大雷灾样本数过少,应用统计方法得出的预测结果会产生很大的误差。以福建省为例,分析了2000～2006年全省的雷灾变化趋势,并尝试利用信息扩散技术对全省重大雷灾进行预测。结果表明:雷灾总数呈现逐年递增趋势,而重大雷灾事故的发生次数没有明显变化;福建省每年重大雷灾的出现次数集中在27～40次之间,其累积概率约为70%,重大雷灾年累计次数小于20次或大于45次的可能性几乎为0;重大雷灾次数大于34次的发生概率约为2年一遇,大于42次的发生概率大约为10年一遇。     

基于Struts和Hibernate的雷电灾害风险评估软件开发

首次利用Struts与Hibernate技术构建了MVC架构的雷电灾害风险评估的Web软件系统,该系统提供友好的人机对话界面。基于J2EE平台的Struts和Hibernate框架整合实现了层间的松散耦合,能极大地提高开发效率,使系统具有更好的可维护性和可扩展性。通过Struts与Hibernate的整合,该系统实现了建筑物与服务设施的雷电灾害风险评估、参数管理、评估记录管理、雷暴日管理、闪电资料管理等功能,比IEC给出的评估软件具有更好的实用性。     

The role of climate variability and fire in early and mid Holocene forest dynamics of southern Sweden

The objective of this study was to investigate the possible links between regional climate, fire and vegetation at the small spatial scale during the early and mid Holocene in southern Sweden using pollen, plant macrofossil and charcoal records from a small bog. The fire history was compared with climate reconstructions inferred from various proxy records in the study region. High fire activity is related to dry and warm climate around 8550, 7600, 5500–5100 and 4500 cal. a BC. Low fire activity ca. 6500–6000 and 4750 BC may correspond to the widespread ‘8.2 k event’ (ca. 6200 BC) recorded across the North Atlantic region, and a later, brief period of increased precipitation, respectively. The decrease in broadleaved trees culminating ca. 6500–6000 BC correlates with the ‘8.2 k event’. A long mid Holocene period with low fire activity (ca. 4350–1000 BC) agrees with the pattern emerging for Europe from the global charcoal database, and may correspond to generally wetter and cooler conditions. High fire activity ca. 8550 BC probably triggered the local establishment of Corylus. Warmer and drier conditions (and high fire activity) ca. 7600 BC might have favoured the establishment of Alnus, Quercus and Tilia. The fire‐adapted Pinus maintained important populations throughout the early and mid Holocene. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Millennial‐scale fire and vegetation history from a mesic hardwood forest of southeastern Wisconsin,USA

High‐resolution charcoal analysis of lake sediment cores was used to reconstruct the fire history from two sites in a mesic hardwood forest of south‐eastern Wisconsin located in the Kettle Moraine State Forest. Pollen data from the region indicate that the sites, which lie within 5 km of each other, have had a consistent presence of mesic hardwood forest for the last 6500 years. A pollen record from one of the sites confirmed the regional vegetation history and the charcoal analysis indicated that fire frequency at each site was temporally linked to regional drought. Periods of high fire occurrence occurred in connection with a region‐wide drought 4200 years ago and, over the last 2000 years, shorter‐scale regional droughts were centred at 1800, 1650, 1100, 1000, 800, 700 and 600 cal a BP. The fire histories indicate that the last 1000 years have had lower fire frequencies than the previous 6500 years and suggest that the mesic hardwood forests may be resilient to increases in fire that may result from future climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fire and drought as drivers of early Holocene tree line changes in the Peruvian Andes

Three pollen and charcoal records from three lakes lying at 3400 m elevation in southern Peru provided a record of landscape change spanning the last ca.18 000 cal. a BP. The tree line lay close to the site between ca. 16 000 and 12 000 cal. a BP, with Polylepis woodlands growing near the lakes. Progressively drying conditions led to increased fire after 12 000 cal. a BP, coinciding with a decline in Polylepis cover and Andean forest relicts as puna grasslands expanded. A strong decrease in the rate of sediment deposition between ca. 12 000 and ca. 4400 cal. a BP was interpreted to indicate the presence of sedimentary hiatuses. With the return of wet conditions after 4400 cal. a BP, forests did not reassemble around the lakes. Instead, fire‐maintained grasslands dominated the landscape. Humans probably induced the intensified fire activity during the late Holocene and thereby deflected local successions. The modern fragmented landscape, with Polylepsis woodlands existing in fire‐resistant pockets above the general limit of the Andean tree line, resulted from the intensification of human land use practices during the last 4400 cal. a BP. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

综合物探方法在煤田采空区圈定和着火区调查中的应用研究

以山西晋城张岭煤田着火区、采空区勘探和着火区探测为例 ,通过对该地区地质构造特征、采空区雷达特征、着火区地温场分布等的描述与分析 ,结合该区钻探、井温测量和气体检测的结果 ,论证了地质雷达与米测温联合方法在煤田采空区圈定和着火区调查中的应用效果 ,并对该方法的应用前景作了相应探讨。     

地质灾害危险性评估在某工程建设中的应用

本文通过对工程建设项目的实例分析，研究其在建设和运营过程中遭受地质灾害的危险性，以及工程建设诱发或加剧地质灾害的可能性，进而提出相宜的地质灾害防治对策，以确保工程建设的质量和安全，减少经济损失，保护环境。     

铜陵地区滑坡基本特征及防治对策

近几年来，铜陵市建成区、矿山、道路沿线不断出现滑坡，成灾十分严重。根据对区内一些滑坡灾害的实地调查及部分滑坡勘查治理资料，论述了该区滑坡的地质背景及其基本特征，分析了形成原因，针对滑坡危害初步提出了防治对策与措施。     

我国沿海台风百年遇重大灾害的Poisson分布特征

使用114年西北太平洋台风资料，50年台风灾害和灾害指数诊断资料与美国70年灾害指数的研究进行对比分析，研究我国沿海地区代表站的百年遇重大台风灾害的Poisson分布特征和灾害指数与台风强度的分布关系。采用Poisson分布对中国沿海热带气旋致灾机理和灾害特征进行分析研究，给出中国北起渤海湾，南到广西的广大海岸线上，台风登陆致灾度（灾害分类、致灾频率，N年遇度等）分析，指出Poisson应用价值。台风灾害指数与台风强度的分析为我国和西北太平洋台风登陆灾害及损失的客观评估提供了重要的参考。     

山洪泥石流灾害预报预警技术述评

山洪泥石流灾害一直都是山区人民的心头之患，严重威胁着山区人民的生命财产安全。山洪泥石流灾害预报预防，是21世纪我国山丘区防灾减灾的一个重要战略方向。文章通过对国内外大量文献资料的综合分析，评价了目前国内外最具典型的山洪泥石流灾害空间预报技术、时间预报技术以及预警系统开发等预报预警技术，并指出了未来山洪泥石流灾害预报预警技术的发展趋势。