A shale gas revolution for China?

The question of whether China is on the verge of a ‘shale gas revolution’ is examined. This has potentially significant consequences for energy policy and climate change mitigation. Contrary to the optimistic reading of some commentators, it argues that various technological, environmental, political, regulatory and institutional factors will constrain the growth of China's shale gas market and that such a revolution might in any event have consequences that are at best mixed, at worst antithetical to climate change mitigation.Policy relevanceChina's reserves of unconventional gas have the potential to transform energy policy, as has occurred in the US, resulting in the substitution of shale gas for coal in the energy mix. Because gas emits only approximately half the GHG per unit as coal, such a move would have important implications for climate policy. However, substantial obstacles stand in the way of the ‘energy revolution’ that some policy analysts see China as embarking upon. The need to acknowledge these obstacles, particularly those relating to regulation and governance (and whether or to what extent they can be overcome), is an issue of profound importance to the future of climate and energy policy.     

Controlling factors of volumetrically important marine carbonate cementation in deep slope settings

The controlling parameters of early marine carbonate cementation in shoal water and hemipelagic to pelagic domains are well‐studied. In contrast, the mechanisms driving the precipitation of early marine carbonate cements at deeper slope settings have received less attention, despite the fact that considerable volumes of early marine cement are present at recent and fossil carbonate slopes in water depths of several hundreds of metres. In order to better understand the controlling factors of pervasive early marine cementation at greater water depths, marine carbonate cements observed along time‐parallel platform to basin transects of two intact Pennsylvanian carbonate slopes are compared with those present in the slope deposits of the Permian Capitan Reef and Neogene Mururoa Atoll. In all four settings, significant amounts of marine cements occlude primary pore spaces downslope into thermoclinal water depths, i.e. in a bathymetric range between some tens and several hundreds of metres. Radial, radiaxial and fascicular optic fibrous calcites, and radiaxial prismatic calcites are associated with re‐deposited facies, boundstones and rudstones. Botryoidal (formerly) aragonitic precipitates are common in microbially induced limestones. From these case studies, it is tentatively concluded that sea water circulation in an extensive, near‐sea floor pore system is a first‐order control on carbonate ion supply and marine cementation. Coastal upwelling and internal or tidal currents are the most probable mechanisms driving pore water circulation at these depths. Carbonate cements precipitated under conditions of normal to elevated alkalinity, locally elevated nutrient levels and variable sea water temperatures. The implications of these findings and suggestions for future work are discussed.     

A new estimate of global methane flux from onshore and shallow submarine mud volcanoes to the atmosphere

A new estimate of global methane emission into the atmosphere from mud volcanoes (MVs) on land and shallow seafloor is presented. The estimate, considered a lower limit, is based on 1) new direct measurements of flux, including both venting of methane and diffuse microseepage around craters and vents, and 2) a classification of MV sizes in terms of area (km²) based on a compilation of data from 120 MVs. The methane flux to the atmosphere is conservatively estimated between 6 and 9 Mt y^–1. This emission from MVs is 3–6% of the natural methane sources and is comparable with ocean and hydrate sources, officially considered in the atmospheric methane budget. The total geologic source, including MVs, seepage from seafloor, microseepage in hydrocarbon-prone areas and geothermal sources, would amount to 35–45 Mt y^–1. The authors believe it is time to add this parameter in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change official tables of atmospheric methane sources.GEM     

Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules

The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.     

Separate and interactive effects of eutrophication and climate variables on the ecosystem elements of the Gulf of Riga

There is currently a critical knowledge gap in how eutrophication and climate variables separately and interactively impact the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Based on long-term monitoring data we quantified the separate and combined impacts of nutrient loading, temperature, salinity, and wind conditions on zooplankton, zoobenthos and fish inhabiting a brackish water ecosystem in the Gulf of Riga. Changes in zoobenthos communities and herring stock were largely explained by climate variables. Zooplankton species were related to both eutrophication and climate variables, and models combining all environmental variables explained additional variation in zooplankton data compared to the separate models of climate and eutrophication. This suggests that zoobenthos communities and herring stock are largely driven by weather conditions, whereas the combined effect of weather and nutrient loads are likely the cause for dynamic zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Riga.     

Paleofire reconstruction for high-elevation forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, with implications for wildfire synchrony and climate variability in the late Holocene

Here, we present two high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal from high-elevation lake sites in the Sierra Nevada, California, and evaluate the synchroneity of fire response for east- and west-side subalpine forests during the past 9200 yr. Charcoal influx was low between 11,200 and 8000 cal yr BP when vegetation consisted of sparse Pinus-dominated forest and montane chaparral shrubs. High charcoal influx after ∼ 8000 cal yr BP marks the arrival of Tsuga mertensiana and Abies magnifica, and a higher-than-present treeline that persisted into the mid-Holocene. Coeval decreases in fire episode frequency coincide with neoglacial advances and lower treeline in the Sierra Nevada after 3800 cal yr BP. Independent fire response occurs between 9200 and 5000 cal yr BP, and significant synchrony at 100- to 1000-yr timescales emerges between 5000 cal yr BP and the present, especially during the last 2500 yr. Indistinguishable fire-return interval distributions and synchronous fires show that climatic control of fire became increasingly important during the late Holocene. Fires after 1200 cal yr BP are often synchronous and corroborate with inferred droughts. Holocene fire activity in the high Sierra Nevada is driven by changes in climate linked to insolation and appears to be sensitive to the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

An analysis of changes in the urban landscape composition and configuration in the Sancaktepe District of Istanbul Metropolitan City,Turkey using landscape metrics and satellite data

Changes in landscape composition and configuration patterns of Sancaktepe Municipal District in the Asian side of Istanbul Metropolitan City of Turkey were analysed using landscape metrics. Class-level and landscape-level metrics were calculated from the land cover/land use data using Patch Analyst, an extension in the Arc View GIS. The land cover/land use data were derived from classified satellite images of Landsat Thematic Mapper of 2002 and 2009 for Sancaktepe District. There was evidence of increase in agglomeration process of built-up patches as indicated by the increases in mean patch size, decrease in total edge and number of patches between 2002 and 2009. The urban expansion pattern experienced overall was not fragmented but concentrated due to infilling around existing patches. Changes in Area-Weighted Mean Shape Index and Area-Weighted Patch Fractal Dimension Index indicated that the physical shapes within built-up, forest and bareland areas were relatively complex and irregular. A conclusion is made in this study that spatial metrics are useful tools to describe the urban landscape composition and configuration in its various aspects and certain decisions whether to approve a specific development in urban planning could, for example, be based on some measures of urban growth form or pattern in terms of uniformity and irregularity, attributable to the dynamic processes of agglomeration and fragmentation of land cover/land use patches caused by urban expansion.     

Elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to climate warming

Warming will affect snowline elevation, potentially altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow from mountain landscapes. Presently, the assessment of potential elevation‐dependent responses is difficult because many gauged watersheds integrate drainage areas that are both snow and rain dominated. To predict the impact of snowline rise on streamflow, we mapped the current snowline (1980 m) for the Salmon River watershed (Idaho, USA) and projected its elevation after 3 °C warming (2440 m). This increase results in a 40% reduction in snow‐covered area during winter months. We expand this analysis by collecting streamflow records from a new, elevation‐stratified gauging network of watersheds contained within high (2250–3800 m), mid (1500–2250 m) and low (300–1500 m) elevations that isolate snow, mixed and rain‐dominated precipitation regimes. Results indicate that lags between percentiles of precipitation and streamflow are much shorter in low elevations than in mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds. Low elevation annual percentiles (Q₂₅ and Q₇₅) of streamflow occur 30–50 days earlier than in higher elevation watersheds. Extreme events in low elevations are dominated by low‐ and no‐flow events whereas mid‐ and high‐elevation extreme events are primarily large magnitude floods. Only mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds are strongly cross correlated with catchment‐wide flow of the Salmon River, suggesting that changes in contributions from low‐elevation catchments may be poorly represented using mainstem gauges. As snowline rises, mid‐elevation watersheds will likely exhibit behaviours currently observed only at lower elevations. Streamflow monitoring networks designed for operational decision making or change detection may require modification to capture elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆层云和层积云冰粒子属性的季节变化

利用CloudSat 卫星资料,选取冰粒子的等效半径（IER）、数浓度（INC）、含水量（IWC）,统计分析了层云、层积云微物理量的垂直分布和季节变化。层云/层积云小粒子（0～50 μm）、中等粒子（50～80 μm）、大粒子（≥80 μm）出现频率分别为18.7%/16.3%、77.6%/62.6%、3.7%/21.2%。在IER 垂直分布上,层云小、中等粒子在云层中部出现较多,层积云小粒子在云层上部出现较多,中等、大粒子在云层中部出现较多。层云/层积云INC低值段（0～50 L^-1）、中值段（50～100 L^-1）、高值段（≥100 L^-1）出现频率分别为90.1%/76.5%、9.6%/19.5%、0.3%/4.1%。在INC垂直分布上,层云低、中值段在云层中部出现较多,层积云低、中值段分别在云层中部、上部出现较多。层云/层积云IWC低值段（0～50 mg·m^-3）、中值段（50～100 mg·m^-3）、高值段（≥100 mg·m^-3）出现频率分别为96.7%/82.8%、3.2%/13.4%、0.1%/3.7%。在IWC垂直分布上,层云低值段在云层中部出现较多,层积云低、中值段分别在云层中部、上部出现较多。     

环境样品中甲基汞的检测方法综述

综述了常用的环境样品中甲基汞的检测方法和检测步骤,认为在实际的甲基汞检测过程中,选择或评价所选用检测方法的原则通常是,在确保检测限的基础上,首选考虑检测结果的精确度如何,而快捷方便、经济实惠的检测技术也是现实运用中的实际需要。作为定量检测,GC分别与AAS、AES、AFS的联用是目前较常用的技术,而与ICP-MS或ID-ICPMS的联用,在今后的实际检测中将得到更广泛的运用。生物传感器检测到的汞一般是生物可利用的汞,降低其检测限并将其作为对污染水体与沉积物检测的重要方法,也是今后研究的重点。总之,在人类对环境安全和身体健康日益重视的今天,发展高灵敏度、高准确度、快速方便和低成本的检测技术是未来甲基汞检测的重要发展方向。