气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF TORSIONAL GROUND MOTIONS

Due to the inherent difficulty in directly recording the rotational ground motions, torsional ground motions have to be estimated from the recorded spatially varying translational motions. In this paper, an empirical coherency function, which is based on the recorded motions at the SMART-1 array, is suggested to model the spatial variation of translational motions. Then, the torsional ground motion power spectral density function is derived. It depends on the translational motion power spectral density function and the coherency function. Both the empirical coherency function and the torsional motion power spectral density function are verified by the recorded motions at the SMART-1 array. The response spectra of the torsional motions are also estimated. Discussion on the relations between the torsional motion response spectrum and the corresponding translational motion response spectrum is made. Numerical results presented can be used to estimate the torsional ground motion power spectral density function and response spectrum.     

Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70a, at the time of CO2 doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.     

浮力装置触发深海管道水平向整体屈曲效果的数值模拟研究

海洋油气资源的运输主要通过海底管道进行,管道在工作时受到较大的温度荷载,会产生整体屈曲变形。深海管道设计中常采用人为装置触发一定程度的水平向整体屈曲变形,来释放轴向的温度应力,浮力装置是常用的触发方式之一。本文通过数值模拟研究,分析了不同浮力大小和不同浮力施加范围下,管道水平向整体屈曲的临界屈曲力,得出临界屈曲力随浮力大小和施加范围变化的情况;并研究了不同土体阻力下,浮力装置触发整体屈曲的效果。研究表明,水平向土体阻力较大时,浮力装置触发水平向整体屈曲的效果较好。浮力装置的触发效果对轴向土体阻力不敏感。     

Adjustment time of the first baroclinic Rossby wave in the global oceans

1Introduction Planetary waves involve the main processes bywhich perturbation signal in one part of the ocean istransferred to another part.In the1970s,mostof theprevious theoretical studies focus on the local Ekmanpumping and the nondispersive long baroc…     

气候变暖与海平面上升

本文通过大量实际资料分析认为,现代全球变暖与海平面上升,源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率,有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0．2F°（0．11℃）为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO。含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段（暖期）。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束,而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为＋1．52±0．27mm／a及相对海平面升降速率为＋1．39±0．26mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求,在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时,对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值,进行了测算与评估。     

基于NS2的TCPW性能改进算法研究

TCP Westwood(TCPW)和Vegas都是基于测量的TCP New-Reno增强算法。TCPW针对ACK流直接估算可用带宽,在慢启动和线性递增部分依然采用传统Reno的盲目递增的机制,导致发送端较为频繁的重传。对这几种算法原理进行分析阐述,并提出1种改进方法,更精确的测量估计带宽,通过网络仿真工具NS2进行验证,明显去除TCP全局同步现象,增强网络性能。     

Microbial photosynthesis in coral reef sediments (Heron Reef, Australia)

We investigated microphytobenthic photosynthesis at four stations in the coral reef sediments at Heron Reef, Australia. The microphytobenthos was dominated by diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria, as indicated by biomarker pigment analysis. Conspicuous algae firmly attached to the sand grains (ca. 100 μm in diameter, surrounded by a hard transparent wall) were rich in peridinin, a marker pigment for dinoflagellates, but also showed a high diversity based on cyanobacterial 16S rDNA gene sequence analysis. Specimens of these algae that were buried below the photic zone exhibited an unexpected stimulation of respiration by light, resulting in an increase of local oxygen concentrations upon darkening. Net photosynthesis of the sediments varied between 1.9 and 8.5 mmol O₂ m⁻² h⁻¹ and was strongly correlated with Chl a content, which lay between 31 and 84 mg m⁻². An estimate based on our spatially limited dataset indicates that the microphytobenthic production for the entire reef is in the order of magnitude of the production estimated for corals. Photosynthesis stimulated calcification at all investigated sites (0.2–1.0 mmol Ca²⁺ m⁻² h⁻¹). The sediments of at least three stations were net calcifying. Sedimentary N₂-fixation rates (measured by acetylene reduction assays at two sites) ranged between 0.9 to 3.9 mmol N₂ m⁻² h⁻¹ and were highest in the light, indicating the importance of heterocystous cyanobacteria. In coral fingers no N₂-fixation was measurable, which stresses the importance of the sediment compartment for reef nitrogen cycling.     

HY-2A卫星雷达高度计数据的全球统计评价及质量分析

自HY-2A卫星发射以来,针对HY-2A卫星雷达高度计产品的交叉定标、真实性检验及质量评估工作一直在持续开展。本文主要以HY-2A卫星高度计第44周期的IGDR产品数据为例,通过使用全球分布图、二维直方图和每日均值统计的方法完成了与Jason-2IGDR产品的比对验证,同时对主要环境校正参数及地球物理产品的数据质量稳定性进行了分析,结果显示高度计产品数据质量较稳定,此外利用HY-2A卫星升降轨交叉点海面高度差、与Jason-2卫星交叉点海面高度差以及沿轨海平面异常数据分析的方法进行了HY-2A卫星高度计观测系统的性能评估,结果显示,HY-2A卫星海面高度精度约为7.48cm,精度接近Jason-2,能满足海洋应用与科学研究的需要。