1980 - 2015年南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应

基于地形图和Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像等数据, 利用目视解译和波段比值法提取1980年、 2000年和2015年南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川空间分布数据, 分析研究区近35年冰川变化, 探讨冰川对气候变化的响应。结果表明： 1980 - 2015年, 南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川面积持续减小并呈加速退缩的趋势, 近35年共减少了（75.23±4.67） km², 占1980年冰川总面积的（25.2±1.6）%, 年平均面积减小率为（0.73±0.05）%。研究区东南坡冰川面积变化速率大于西北坡, 在不同流域、 海拔及朝向上, 冰川变化差异较大。南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川表碛十分发育, 表碛覆盖冰川面积变化率小于裸露冰川, 表碛覆盖对冰川消融具有抑制作用。南迦巴瓦峰地区在气温显著升高的背景下, 虽然降水量有所增加, 但冰川对气温更加敏感, 因气温升高引起冰川消融所带来的物质损失超过降水增加对冰川的补给, 导致南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川普遍萎缩。     

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

帕隆藏布流域冰湖变化及危险性评估

冰湖作为区域气候变化的灵敏指示器和主要冰川灾害的启动器,认识其空间分布及变化特征对探讨冰湖对气候变化的响应规律及冰湖溃决危险性评估具有重要意义.基于1968-1980年地形图数据和1994-2016年Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像资料,综合利用RS、GIS技术和数理统计方法分析帕隆藏布流域面积≥ 0.01 km²冰湖时空分布及其动态变化,并对潜在危险性冰湖进行判别和评估.结果表明：2016年帕隆藏布流域共有冰湖351个,面积50.48 km²,且面积和数量分别以面积>1 km²和面积<0.1 km²的冰湖为主,这些冰湖主要分布于海拔2800~5400 m之间.近50年来帕隆藏布流域冰湖总体呈数量增多、面积增加态势;海拔<3000 m的冰湖相对稳定,而海拔>4500 m的冰湖数量和面积增加则相对迅速.近50年间帕隆藏布流域冰川面积减少591.34 km²,气候变暖导致的冰川末端退缩和冰川融水增加为冰湖形成和扩张提供了发育空间和物质来源.切毛措、光谢错等9个冰湖为潜在危险性冰湖,预计未来一段时间内帕隆藏布流域冰湖溃决可能处于活跃阶段,其形成和暴发也将更加频繁.     

The evolution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of a partly debris-covered,rapidly thinning and slowly moving glacier in 1998–2012 (Pasterze Glacier,Austria)

Many glaciers in alpine regions are currently rapidly receding and thinning at historically unobserved rates causing changes in the velocity field and in normal and shear stresses affecting the surface expression of structures within the ice. We studied the distribution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of Pasterze Glacier during a 14-year period by analysing orthophotos and digital elevation models of five stages (1998, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012). A structural glaciological mapping key was applied. Normal faults, strike-slip faults, en échelon structures (systematic stepping of fractures), thrust faults, and band ogives were distinguished. Results indicate substantial deceleration and glacier thinning in 1998–2012. Glacier thinning was not homogenous over time related to the uneven distribution of supraglacial debris causing differential ablation or the selective ablation effects of subglacial water channels. Peculiar supraglacial features observed are circular collapse structures with concentric crevasses which form when the ice between the surface and the roof of water channels decreases. The total length of brittle structures increased from 38.4 km to 56.9 km whereas the extent of the glacier tongue decreased by 25%. The fracture density doubled from 0.009 to 0.018 m/m². Areas of the glacier tongue which were up to 100 m away from the nearest brittle structure increased by 16%. The visual appearance of thrust faults shifted upglacier due to decreasing glacier velocity causing horizontal shortening or due to exhumation of faults that did not previously extend to the surface. A large number of brittle structures are progressively independent from glacier motion. Our study suggests that glacier tongues which are in a state of rapid decay and thinning are prone to fracturing due to normal fault formation and glacier disintegration. Water further increases ablation rates substantially if rather large amounts drain through supra-, en- or subglacial water channels. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Rates of rockwall slope erosion in the upper Bhagirathi catchment,Garhwal Himalaya

Rockwall slope erosion is defined for the upper Bhagirathi catchment using cosmogenic Beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) concentrations in sediment from medial moraines on Gangotri glacier. Beryllium-10 concentrations range from 1.1 ± 0.2 to 2.7 ± 0.3 × 10⁴ at/g SiO₂, yielding rockwall slope erosion rates from 2.4 ± 0.4 to 6.9 ± 1.9 mm/a. Slope erosion rates are likely to have varied over space and time and responded to shifts in climate, geomorphic and/or tectonic regime throughout the late Quaternary. Geomorphic and sedimentological analyses confirm that the moraines are predominately composed of rockfall and avalanche debris mobilized from steep relief rockwall slopes via periglacial weathering processes. The glacial rockwall slope erosion affects sediment flux and storage of snow and ice at the catchment head on diurnal to millennial timescales, and more broadly influences catchment configuration and relief, glacier dynamics and microclimates. The slope erosion rates exceed the averaged catchment-wide and exhumation rates of Bhagirathi and the Garhwal region on geomorphic timescales (10³−10⁵ years), supporting the view that erosion at the headwaters can outpace the wider catchment. The ¹⁰Be concentrations of medial moraine sediment for the upper Bhagirathi catchment and the catchments of Chhota Shigri in Lahul, northern India and Baltoro glacier in Central Karakoram, Pakistan show a tentative relationship between ¹⁰Be concentration and precipitation. As such there is more rapid glacial rockwall slope erosion in the monsoon-influenced Lesser and Greater Himalaya compared to the semi-arid interior of the orogen. Rockwall slope erosion in the three study areas, and more broadly across the northwest Himalaya is likely governed by individual catchment dynamics that vary across space and time. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GRACE估计南极冰川质量变化的泄露影响及其改正

利用2003-01～2013-12期间GRACE数据反演得到地球表面质量变化,使用全球正向建模恢复法改正泄露影响,获得南极冰盖质量变化。比较GRACE直接估计和泄露影响改正后的结果发现,南极冰盖在2003～2013年质量变化信号衰减20.3%,西南极有26.4%的质量消融信号泄露到了周边,东南极的泄露影响更高达70%。改正后的结果表明,南极冰盖绝大部分质量消融发生在西南极和南极半岛,质量积累发生在东南极的Ronne冰架和Amery冰架;西南极冰盖质量变化速度达到-152.47±2.00 Gt/a,基本上等同于南极全岛的质量消融速度,而南极半岛的冰盖融化速度为-27.44±0.75 Gt/a,基本与东南极的冰盖质量积累速度27.27±5.12Gt/a抵消;南极全岛冰川整体质量以-152.64±7.00 Gt/a速度消失,并以-18.85±4.87 Gt/a2的加速度加速融化,导致海平面以0.41 mm/a的速度上升。     

高分一号遥感数据在冰川变化监测中的应用

针对冰川遥感监测研究工作中存在的数据源选择问题,首次将国产高分一号卫星数据应用于祁连山系青海境内冰川动态变化监测工作.通过国产高分遥感数据与同尺度的Landsat历史数据对比,从变化面积、变化率、空间变化、类型变化、结构变化等方面阐述祁连山系冰川变化规律.研究对比表明：国产高分卫星遥感数据在采集、处理、监测冰川变化中的应用效果完全可以满足1：10万尺度的遥感调查和监测,不管是光谱信息还是纹理信息都优于ETM等中低分辨率数据;国产高分卫星的多光谱数据与Landsat、Aster等历史数据可以形成对比数据集;祁连山系冰川总体变化不大,但在内部结构与时空分布存在较大差异,冰川面积和数量呈双降态势;针对冰川的特殊性,能保证在每年的最佳季节获取最优质的遥感数据,对于时间跨度大的遥感监测目标监测具有重要意义.     

Hazardous processes and events from glacier and permafrost areas: lessons from the Chilean and Argentinean Andes

Glacier and permafrost hazards such as glacial‐lake outburst floods and rock–ice avalanches cause significant socio‐economic damages worldwide, and these processes may increase in frequency and magnitude if the atmospheric temperature rises. In the extratropical Andes nearly 200 human deaths were linked to these processes during the twentieth century. We analysed bibliographical sources and satellite images to document the glacier and permafrost dynamics that have caused socio‐economic damages in this region in historic time (including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock–ice avalanches and lahars) to unravel their causes and geomorphological impacts. In the extratropical Andes, at least 15 ice‐dammed lakes and 16 moraine‐dammed lakes have failed since the eighteenth century, causing dozens of floods. Some floods rank amongst the largest events ever recorded (5000 × 10⁶ m³ and 229 × 10⁶ m³, respectively). Outburst flood frequency has increased in the last three decades, partially as a consequence of long‐term (decades to centuries) climatic changes, glaciers shrinkage, and lake growth. Short‐term (days to weeks) meteorological conditions (i.e. intense and/or prolonged rainfall and high temperature that increased meltwater production) have also triggered outburst floods and mass movements. Enormous mass failures of glaciers and permafrost (> 10 × 10⁶ m³) have impacted lakes, glaciers, and snow‐covered valleys, initiating chain reactions that have ultimately resulted in lake tsunamis and far‐reaching (> 50 km) flows. The eruption of ice‐covered volcanoes has also caused dozens of damaging lahars with volumes up to 45 × 10⁶ m³. Despite the importance of these events, basic information about their occurrence (e.g. date, causes, and geomorphological impact), which is well established in other mountain ranges, is absent in the extratropical Andes. A better knowledge of the processes involved can help to forecast and mitigate these events. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GRACE数据估计近年喜马拉雅冰川质量变化

基于CSR发布的GRACE时变重力场模型RL05数据,在频域上计算得到2002~2014年喜马拉雅山冰川质量变化。扣除GIA和水文模型影响后,喜马拉雅地区的冰川质量变化整体上呈现加速消融的趋势,消融速率约为-8.26±4.61 Gt/a,加速度约为-3.54±1.25 Gt/a2。     

近40 a来天山台兰河流域冰川资源变化分析

台兰河流域作为阿克苏河的支流,是以冰川融水补给为主的河流,流域面积为1 324 km²。结合1：5万地形图、Landsat ETM+遥感影像及数字高程模型数据,通过综合计算机自动解译及目视解译的方法,将面向对象图像特征提取方法应用到该流域冰川信息提取中,并以影像叠加数字高程模型来提取表碛覆盖区的冰川末端边界,最后参照专家指导意见进行边界的再次修订,得到1972~2011年该流域的冰川变化数据,并分析了过去近40 a来冰川变化特征及其对气候变化的响应过程。结果表明：1972~2011年,台兰河流域冰川退缩明显,冰川总面积从435.44 km²退缩到385.38 km²,减少了50.06 km²,退缩率为11.50%,年均减少约1.25 km²,平均单条冰川面积减小0.31 km²;冰川总条数从113条减少到109条,消失冰川10条,有3条冰川分离成了9条,其余100条冰川都呈减小趋势。结合阿克苏和拜城气象站气象资料分析认为,台兰河流域冰川萎缩与该地区气温快速上升关系密切,气温上升导致的冰川消融在一定程度上抵消了降水增加对冰川的补给。