资料均一化对沈阳站气温趋势和城市化偏差分析的影响

利用国家气象信息中心2013年发布的逐日均一化气温资料,对沈阳站资料均一化处理前后平均气温和极端气温指数序列的线性趋势及其城市化影响偏差进行了比较评价。结果表明:1)资料均一化处理对日最高气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计的影响较弱,但对日最低气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计具有显著影响。2)经资料均一化处理后,平均气温序列中的城市化影响偏差有所增大,平均最低气温序列中的城市化影响偏差增大尤其明显;与冷事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所减小,与暖事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所增加。3)资料均一化处理有效纠正了因迁站等原因造成的地面气温观测记录中的非均一性,但却在很大程度上还原了城市站地面气温观测记录中的城市化影响偏差。     

800年来苏北废黄河三角洲的演变模式

根据历史资料、数据和相关研究,结合研究区域背景,分析苏北废黄河三角洲的演变。结果显示,岸线演变在发育阶段和侵蚀阶段分别为向海延伸约90 km和侵蚀后退约22 km,面积相差约800 km2,三角洲地貌演变表现为岸线平直-曲折-平滑-平直的过程。在废三角洲陆海相互作用的基础上,运用演化模式分析三角洲的演变过程。该三角洲演变可以分为7个演变阶段,发育期在径流和潮流作用下以沙洲并陆淤积延伸方式进行,侵蚀期在波浪和潮流作用下以沙洲合并侵蚀后退和淤积外长交替侵蚀的方式。泥沙输运、人类活动和气候变化对废三角洲的演变有重要影响,巨量的来沙是三角洲发育的原因,泥沙平衡被打破是侵蚀的主要原因。发育期中,泥沙输运影响淤积速度和位置,人类活动和气候变化影响黄河河道迁移、输沙量和产沙量;侵蚀期中,泥沙输运影响侵蚀状态,人类活动在一定程度上影响海岸带冲/淤,气候变化将影响三角洲的演变趋势。     

Morphological indicators of structural control,relative sea-level fluctuations and platform drowning on present-day and Miocene carbonate platforms

The morphology of Carbonate platforms may be influenced by tectonic activity and eustatic variations. 3D seismic data and satellite imagery are used in order to investigate the morphological similarities between present-day carbonates platforms, East of Borneo Island and Miocene carbonate platforms of the South China Sea. The morphological similarities exhibit platform fragmentation, that could be caused by subtle faulting, sufficient to drown reef rims; platform contraction, which is a result of back-stepping of the reef margin during a relative sea level rise and polygonal patterns in internal lagoons, described as mesh reefs in modern platforms and possibly interpreted as karst in Miocene platforms.Vertical movements may trigger the formation of new geomorphological conditions that modify the distribution of coral growth with respect to the new hydrodynamic conditions in space and time. These movements (uplift and tilting) reduce and localize the space necessary for the coral ecosystem, explaining the contraction leading to drowning of parts of and, ultimately, the whole platform.     

Last glacial emplacement of methane-derived authigenic carbonates in the Sea of Japan constrained by diatom assemblage,carbon-14, and carbonate content

We studied diatom assemblages and CaCO₃ contents of methane-derived authigenic carbonates from the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan and assessed the formation time of these samples. Radioactive ¹⁴C date was determined in selected samples to obtain the maximum age of the time. The results of our study suggest mass formation of carbonate nodules in a glacial period within ∼40 ky, consistent with a published U/Th dating result of carbonate nodules in the study area. Diatom assemblages and contents in the carbonate nodules (abundance of ∼10⁶/g, dominance of neritic-littoral species, warm/cold water species ratio lower than ∼25) differ from the near-seafloor sediments in the study area, which have characteristics of Holocene sediments in the Sea of Japan, and suggest cementation of glacial sediments. Laminated sediments in some nodule samples are glacial sediments because laminations are records of a low sea level period in the semi-enclosed ocean. Similarity of diatom assemblages and contents in all carbonate samples is another evidence of glacial sediments in nodules. Glacial sediments with oceanic cold water species as low as Holocene sediments restricts the sediment age to before 20 cal. ky BP. Carbonate contents higher than 78 wt% suggest the cementation of poorly compacted sediments near the seafloor, and the date of carbonate cementation is, therefore, close to that of the cemented sediments. Most carbonate nodule samples in this study were formed in a glacial period and detection of ¹⁴C restricts this period to within ∼40 ky.     

面向对象的连云港海岸带土地利用变化及驱动力分析

以连云港海岸带为研究区,基于1978年和2010年两期Landsat影像,提取土地利用信息,分析土地利用特征及其动态变化过程;面向土地利用变化基本单元,进行土地利用变化驱动力分析。结果表明:研究期初,该地区的主要土地类型为耕地和盐田,共占研究区面积的67.14%;32 a间共有37.17%的土地发生了变化,盐田和耕地面积快速减少,水产养殖区和工矿企业用地快速增加,有限的林地资源在减少,滩涂围垦达面积46.55 km2,土地利用程度加深;变化的土地中,38.95%由经济结构调整驱动,发展潜力大;27.75%由政策驱动,存在诸多的社会和生态问题;20.49%由政策或者经济结构调整与生产力水平共同驱动,取得较好经济和社会效益;12.81%的土地由政策、人口及经济发展共同驱动。连云港海岸带土地利用存在诸多不足之处,也具有巨大的发展空间。本研究对连云港市提高土地利用的社会效益和生态效益具有重要意义。     

阿勒泰地区冬季降水变化特征分析

利用阿勒泰地区7个地面气象站1961—2011年51a的降水观测资料,运用线性趋势、变差分析、EOF、Molet小波变换、M—K突变检测、R／S分析法,分析了该地区近50a来冬季降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：近50a来,该地区冬季降水量存在自山区向河谷逐渐减少的分布特征,年际变化幅度由东北向西南逐渐减小;在空间分布上以全地区一致型为主,部分年份还呈现东北一西南差异分布。冬季降水量在196l一1968年处于偏多阶段,1968--1982年为偏少阶段,此后呈增多趋势。该地区降水以18a周期变化为主,20世纪70年代中后期出现8a的短周期,在90年代中期出现5a的短周期振荡。冬季降水量的突变特征并不显著。R／S分析表明该地区冬季降水量的增加趋势在未来仍将持续。     

The potential of the greenness and radiation (GR) model to interpret 8-day gross primary production of vegetation

Remote sensing of vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important step to analyze terrestrial carbon (C) cycles in response to changing climate. The availability of global networks of C flux measurements provides a valuable opportunity to develop remote sensing based GPP algorithms and test their performances across diverse regions and plant functional types (PFTs). Using 70 global C flux measurements including 24 non-forest (NF), 17 deciduous forest (DF) and 29 evergreen forest (EF), we present the evaluation of an upscaled remote sensing based greenness and radiation (GR) model for GPP estimation. This model is developed using enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and land surface temperature (LST) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and global course resolution radiation data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Model calibration was achieved using statistical parameters of both EVI and LST fitted for different PFTs. Our results indicate that compared to the standard MODIS GPP product, the calibrated GR model improved the GPP accuracy by reducing the root mean square errors (RMSE) by 16%, 30% and 11% for the NF, DF and EF sites, respectively. The standard MODIS and GR model intercomparisons at individual sites for GPP estimation also showed that GR model performs better in terms of model accuracy and stability. This evaluation demonstrates the potential use of the GR model in capturing short-term GPP variations in areas lacking ground measurements for most of vegetated ecosystems globally.     

通过软硬变化检测识别冬小麦

提出一种软硬变化检测的作物识别方法 SHLUCD(Soft and Hard Land Use/Cover Change Detection Method)。该方法利用多期遥感影像能够有效表达作物的生长物候特征,以达到在离散变化区(即纯净像元区,包括完全转换成作物的突变区域和非作物区域)和连续变化区(即渐变区,混合像元区,是部分转化为作物的区域)准确进行作物的识别。在北京市选择一个研究区,以冬小麦为研究对象,选用2011年10月6日(播种期)和2012年4月16日(拔节期)两期环境减灾1号卫星影像,分别采用硬变化检测方法 HLUCD(Hard Land Use/Cover Change Detection Method)、软变化检测方法 SLUCD(Soft Land Use/Cover Change Detection Method)和SHLUCD进行冬小麦的识别。实验结果表明:在不同尺度窗口下,SHLUCD较传统方法表现出较明显的优势,具有更低的均方根误差RMSE(SHLUCD为[0.14,0.07],HLUCD为[0.15,0.07],SLUCD为[0.16,0.08])和偏差bias(SHLUCD为-0.0008,HLUCD为-0.007,SLUCD为0.014)和更高的决定系数R2(SHLUCD为[0.68,0.86],HLUCD为[0.62,0.86],SLUCD为[0.60,0.86])。针对冬小麦突变区域、冬小麦渐变区域和非冬小麦区域分别进行评价,表明SHLUCD识别精度接近各区最佳的识别方法,进一步验证了SHLUCD的灵活性和适用性。SHLUCD方法在离散变化区能够通过土地覆盖类型状态变化来有效地识别出冬小麦,在连续变化区可识别出土地覆盖的状态变化程度定量表达冬小麦的丰度,是其他作物多时相遥感变化检测的前期实验基础。     

The Interdecadal Changes of South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature in the Mid-1990s and Their Connections with ENSO简

The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability （PDV） interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods： January 1979 to December 1994 （P 1） and January 1996 to December 2011 （P2）. Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P 1 （EOF-P 1） to a dipole-like pattern for P2 （EOF-P2）. Besides, EOF-P 1 （EOF-P2） had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr （2.7 yr）. EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both PI and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.     

Evidence from the Historical Record to Support Projection of Future Wind Regimes: An Application to Canada

In the field of climate change impact analysis, bidirectional changes in projections of future wind regimes varying among studies, locations, and models have been described in the literature, which is understandable from a global perspective. However, we should attempt to find evidence in the historical record to support these projections. This paper attempts to address this issue by analyzing historical wind gust observations for up to 57 years (1953–2009) over Canada. Two wind gust analysis techniques were used: the speed of daily wind gust events ≥50?km?h^?1 was compared with (1) the climatological daily temperature anomaly and (2) the climatological daily sea level air pressure anomaly. In addition, the frequency of daily wind gust events ≥90?km?h^?1 was compared with both daily temperature and pressure anomalies. The results indicate that during the past five decades gust wind speed over Canada increased significantly as the daily temperature anomaly increased and the daily pressure anomaly decreased. About 50–60% of daily wind gust events ≥90?km?h^?1 occurred with positive daily temperature anomalies and negative daily pressure anomalies. One major conclusion is that the methods used in and results derived from this study might be applied to climate change impact analysis to support projections of future wind regimes.