泥炭档案气候变化重建的定量模型

泥炭档案气候变化重建的定量模型＊陶发祥洪业汤（中国科学院地球化学研究所，贵阳５５０００２）李汉鼎冷雪天（东北师范大学地理系，长春１３００２４）关键词泥炭档案纤维素稳定同位素气候变化定量模型用泥炭档案定量重建大气ＣＯ２浓度的研究已取得重要进展［１］，但...     

Global climatic change – the latest scientific understanding

IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.     

土壤碳储量计算中不同插值方法对比研究——以吉林省大安市为例

土壤碳储量问题是大气温室效应和全球变化研究的热点问题。本文采用“单位土壤碳量”方法,计算了吉林省大安市表层土壤有机碳总储量和平均土壤有机碳储量,以为全球碳循环研究提供精确的基础数据。分析和比较了反距离加权、全局多项式、局部多项式、径向基函数和普通克里格等不同插值模型对表层单位土壤有机碳储量空间插值结果的影响,结果表明全局多项式插值的均差最小,径向基函数中张力样条法的平均绝对误差最小,普通克里格法的标准差最小。综合分析来看,普通克里格的有理二次方程式模型插值精度最高。      

Permo-Carboniferous Sequence Stratigraphy and Sea Level Changes in North China Platform

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天山乌鲁木齐河源450a冬季温度序列的重建与分析

相关计算表明,乌鲁木齐河树轮年表与大西沟气象站冬季（上年１２月至当年３月）平均最低温度相关显著,最高单相关系数为０．６１（α＝０．００１）,给出其在树木生理学方面的解释,使用７个年表序列构成的５个主分量可较好地重建乌鲁木齐河源大西沟气象站冬季平均最低温度序列,解释方差达６６．６４％,通过探讨来自不同年表的同一气候要素的两个重建序列的合并条件,得到了４５３ａ的乌鲁木齐河源冬季平均最低温度长序列,对该     

汾河上游土地利用变化及其水文响应研究

以河岔水文站以上的汾河流域为研究区,采用土地利用转移矩阵和SWAT模型模拟方法,就汾河上游土地利用变化对水文过程的影响进行研究. 流域从1995-2000年,以耕地向林地和草地转变为主;从2000-2010年,城市建设用地不断增加,主要是对耕地的占用. 结果显示,在相同气候背景、不同土地利用情景（1995、2000年2010年）下,流域1992-2000年多年平均产水量微弱增加（分别为85.69 mm、85.75 mm和85.82 mm）,主要因为耕地持续减少,草地和城市建设用地不断增加. 但是各年产水量的大小关系不完全一致,枯水年和平水年与丰水年存在差异,而土壤水分呈现一致的减少状况. 子流域水平上,降水条件同样影响水文过程对土地利用变化的响应程度. 以上结果表明,汾河流域在退耕还林还草政策等影响下,土地利用发生变化并且直接影响流域的水文过程,但是流域水文过程对土地利用变化的响应还受到降水的影响.     

2013年西藏嘉黎县“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水成因及潜在危害

冰湖溃决洪水（泥石流）是西藏自治区主要自然灾害之一. 2013年7月5日,西藏自治区嘉黎县忠玉乡发生“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水灾害事件,导致人员失踪,房屋被毁,桥梁、道路等基础设施遭到严重破坏,直接经济损失高达2.7亿元. 基于不同时间段地形图和遥感影像资料,利用地理信息技术,发现导致“7.5”洪灾的溃决冰湖为然则日阿错. 该冰湖溃决的直接诱因可能是雪崩和冰崩的共同作用,溃决前的强降水过程及气温的快速上升是其间接原因,而冰湖长期稳定的扩张导致水量聚集是其溃决并造成巨大灾害的基础. 然则日阿错溃决后形成2个冰湖,面积分别为0.25 km²和0.01 km²,再次发生溃决的概率极小. 这次溃决洪水和泥石流灾害事件阻塞了尼都藏布的罗琼沟及衣布沟,并形成2处面积分别为0.33 km²和0.13 km²堰塞湖,且存在溃决风险,在今后一段时间内应加强监测工作与排险工程实施.     

全新世环境考古研究进展

环境考古研究是国际上的热点问题之一,尤其是针对全新世以来的研究.以往的研究主要集中在气候突变事件对新石器文化的影响、人类对环境变迁的调整与适应、人类对于环境的影响与干预以及史前农业与气候环境的相关等方面.研究结果表明:极端气候事件的确对人类文化与农业文明产生了深远影响,但是人类也一定程度上对气候变迁做出了调整与响应.尽管在很长时间内,人类处于被动角色,但是随着时间延续,人与自然间关系也发生重大变动,逐步演变为人类对于自然的强烈影响与干预.目前各国科学家对此两个问题的讨论已经逐步摆脱定性阶段,开始向定量化方向发展.孢粉、磁化率、有机质等代用指标的运用,使得这一领域具有了更为广阔的前景和生命力.史前农业的研究牵涉的内容较为复杂,包括农业起源、农业传播以及农业发展过程中的诸多问题,它们与气候以及人类活动的关系一直是环境考古学家努力探索的方向,至今该领域的研究仍然存在很大争论和分歧.     

热带珊瑚的高分辨率环境信息与全球变化研究进展

星罗棋布的热带珊瑚作为海洋环境的信息载体,具有分辨率高、时间跨度大、记录连续完整、体系封闭性好、蕴涵的信息丰富、可选择的代用指标多、测定简便和易于定年等特点。珊瑚有效地记录了全球环境变化的诸多信息,已成为研究过去（如末次间冰期以来）和近代（如数十至数百年以来）的气候—环境变率和可预测性（PAGES CLIVAR）领域重要的环境载体。以全球变化为背景,对近年来珊瑚环境代用指标的研究成果进行评述。重点讨论了珊瑚氧同位素和微量元素比值等指标在海表温度（SST）变化、海气交换程度、季风强弱、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（ENSO）发生的频率和强度,以及它们之间的相互作用等全球变化的核心问题上的研究进展,并展望了南海珊瑚在高分辨率全球变化研究中的地位与方向。     

Gated communities of the Moscow green belt: newly segregated landscapes and the suburban Russian environment

The transition from the Soviet to the post-Soviet period in and near Moscow manifested itself in increasing production of segregated space both in the urban core and suburban areas outside of the beltway to accommodate the preferences of the new Russian business and governmental elite. This paper focuses on the residential single-family housing inside old and new settlements, which are frequently gated. Approximately 260 of such suburban communities have been developed within 30 km of the beltway during the past few years, of which a majority have some form of exclusion mechanism in place, typically tall solid fences, gates, closed-circuit video surveillance and guarded entry checkpoints. The difference in exclusivity varies from the most exclusive older communities inside Moscow Serebryany Bor enclave and Rublevskoe highway mansions to less exclusive new developments along Novorizkhskoe and Dmitrovskoe highways. Despite high rates of construction, based on sociological surveys in 2003, only about 11% of Russia’s upper class claimed to live in such new “cottages,” with the rest owning condos and luxury apartments in the inner city or older detached homes in villages and small towns. Therefore, not all the needs have been accommodated and more development is certain to take place. The environmental impact of such developments is profound. Based on preliminary LANDSAT image analysis, almost 22% of suburban “green belt” forested land within 30 km zone has been converted to new construction from 1991 to 2001. New construction is now focusing on the remaining fragments of natural vegetation, which will likely lower air quality and water quality available for the city. Ironically, the new developments advertise themselves as “clean and green” with massive investments in unnatural landscaping (seeded lawns, exotic shrubs, river and lake shore “improvements”). This investment highlights the well-known paradox of development in which people move out of town to live near nature, while destroying the wild nature they come to enjoy. “We left city for the weekend It was raining, saw no stars There were fences everywhere Our chiefs behind the bars.” Gennady Shpalikov