气候变化对巴音布鲁克高寒湿地地表水的影响

通过对巴音布鲁克高寒湿地各特征气候要素的变化分析,研究了近50a来巴音布鲁克高寒湿地地表水环境和气候变化的变化趋势和年际分布特征.结果表明:巴音布鲁克湿地不论冬季还是年平均气温都没有明显的升高趋势,极端最高、最低气温也没有明显变化,但夏季增温幅度高于新疆平均水平;夏季降水量占了全年降水量的68.4%,是巴音布鲁克湿地水体的主要来源.20世纪80年代中期是降水量最少的时期,此后开始逐步增加;开都河的径流量自1987年后呈现逐步增加趋势,并与巴音布鲁克年降水量和年均气温存在良好的响应关系.气候变化对湿地水环境的影响直接关系到湿地的生态系统.     

MODIS NDVI和AVHRR NDVI 对草原植被变化监测差异

以草地作为研究载体,对比分析草原植被AVHRR NDVI和MODIS NDVI两种NDVI序列的年内、年际变化特征,讨论两种NDVI序列对降水量、平均气温和水汽压3种气候因子的响应差异,为合理选择NDVI序列对植被进行监测研究提供参考。结果表明：(1)两种NDVI序列所反映的草原植被年内变化趋势相似,但MODIS NDVI对各类草原的区分度优于AVHRR NDVI;(2)两种NDVI序列所反映的2000年—2003年草原植被年际变化差异明显。较之于MODIS NDVI,AVHRR NDVI变化趋势分类图表现出更强的植被改善趋势,植被改善面积在AVHRR NDVI变化趋势分类图中占94.25%,在MODIS NDVI中为83.33%;两种NDVI变化趋势分类图反映的植被变化趋势吻合度为52.88%。(3)两种NDVI序列与水汽压、降水量相关性差异显著。MODIS NDVI与各站点平均气温的相关系数均大于GIMMS NDVI;而MODIS NDVI与水汽压的相关系数83%(10个站点)小于GIMMS NDVI,与降水量的相关系数67%(8个站点)小于GIMMS NDVI。     

Measuring land-use and land-cover change using the U.S. department of agriculture’s cropland data layer: Cautions and recommendations

Monitoring agricultural land is important for understanding and managing food production, environmental conservation efforts, and climate change. The United States Department of Agriculture's Cropland Data Layer (CDL), an annual satellite imagery-derived land cover map, has been increasingly used for this application since complete coverage of the conterminous United States became available in 2008. However, the CDL is designed and produced with the intent of mapping annual land cover rather than tracking changes over time, and as a result certain precautions are needed in multi-year change analyses to minimize error and misapplication. We highlight scenarios that require special considerations, suggest solutions to key challenges, and propose a set of recommended good practices and general guidelines for CDL-based land change estimation. We also characterize a problematic issue of crop area underestimation bias within the CDL that needs to be accounted for and corrected when calculating changes to crop and cropland areas. When used appropriately and in conjunction with related information, the CDL is a valuable and effective tool for detecting diverse trends in agriculture. By explicitly discussing the methods and techniques for post-classification measurement of land-cover and land-use change using the CDL, we aim to further stimulate the discourse and continued development of suitable methodologies. Recommendations generated here are intended specifically for the CDL but may be broadly applicable to additional remotely-sensed land cover datasets including the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover products, and other regional, national, and global land cover classification maps.     

1968-2009年叶尔羌河流域冰川变化——基于第一、二次中国冰川编目数据

利用"中国冰川资源及其变化调查"项目最新冰川编目成果和中国第一次冰川编目结果, 对中国叶尔羌河流域1968-2009年冰川变化进行了分析. 结果表明:叶尔羌河流域冰川总体上处于退缩状态, 面积减少了927 km², 年平均面积减少23.2 km², 年均面积缩小比例为0.36%·a^-1, 与中国其他地区冰川退缩程度相比属于中等水平. 叶尔羌河流域不同规模冰川的退缩幅度存在差异, 小冰川大幅萎缩, 甚至消失; 规模较大的冰川相对变化幅度较小, 一些冰川出现过跃动. 从朝向分布来看, 位于南坡的冰川退缩最为严重, 而西坡较小. 冰川集中分布在海拔5 100~5 500 m和5 500~5 900 m区间, 海拔4 700~5 100 m区间的冰川面积减少最为显著. 消失冰川大多数为面积在0.2~0.5 km²的小冰川, 且朝向东北坡的冰川消失数量最多. 研究区有冰川分裂现象, 也出现了支冰川前进超覆现象, 统计表明该流域有13条冰川在前进后形成6条冰川. 1968-2009年研究区气温升高、降水增加, 总体上看, 降水增加缓解了因升温而导致的冰川退缩.     

全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。     

南黄海＆SDP102孔冰消期以来的重矿物组合特征

利用１９９５年中韩合作项目在黄海东部海域获得的ＹＳＤＰ１０２钻孔岩心,选取了２８个样品进行了矿物学的分析与测试,共发现矿物２４种,其中重矿物２０种,组合为绿泥石、云母、绿帘石、角闪石、石榴子石。结果显示重矿物组合及物质来源比较稳定,主要是冰消期以来海侵过程对陆架上早期沉积物的改造,其次是各种海洋动力对对陆架基岩的侵蚀所形成的沉积物,在垂向上可以分成３个矿物段,这３个矿物段与沉环境密切相关。     

南沙海域海底浅层第四系地震地层结构与地质意义

科技进步使得地震采集数据量及其精度实现质的飞跃,南沙海域的地震调查,采用国际先进水平的等离子震源,获得地震剖面精度优于3 m局部甚至可在1 m之内,为科学研究、工程、浅层资源、地质灾害预警等研究奠定基础.在南沙第四系识别出了七个地震反射界面,确定500 ms至海底沉积区间内地震层序与三期海平面升降并与冰期、间冰期对应,典型地震剖面展示第四纪至少有三套完整的具有三角洲顶积层、前积层、底积层的地震相证据,与全球的第四纪海平面的变化一致.精细的浅层地震结构表明：南沙的地质现象丰富,浅层断层非常发育,下切河谷、泥石流、滑坡等地质遗迹的形成的地震相清晰,是地质活动频繁的地区.

     

气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述(英文)

Climate change and human activities are the two kinds of driving forces in desertification,and assessing their relative role in desertification is of great significance to deeply understanding the driving mechanisms and preventing desertification expansion.This paper has systematically reviewed the progress of the researches on assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification from qualitative,semi-quantitative and quantitative aspects respectively.The authors found that there were still some problems in the previous researches.For example,the subjectivity in assessment was obvious,the assessment cannot be easily repeated,and the assessment and its results were always based on administrative regions and less taken and expressed in a continuous space.According to the progress of previous researches and the works conducted by the authors recently,we put forward a quantitative approach by selecting NPP as a common indicator to measure the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification and dividing the ecological process of "driving force effect-dynamic response of desertified land" into several scenarios.Meanwhile,validation and scale of assessment should be taken into account when quantitative assessment of the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification are carried out.     

海底双层管单层连接管道结构受力分析

粘性高的海洋石油通常需要通过海底保温管道加温输送.温度变化会引起管道变形,并在管壁内产生较大的温度应力.同时,管道正常运营期间还受到管道内压、外压、管内流体粘滞力和土体摩擦力等环境荷载的作用.复杂的环境可能导致海底管道轴向应力过大发生破坏.为了提高铺管效率,提出了双层管单层连接管道这一特殊管道形式,并从理论上分析温度变化和环境荷载对该管道的影响,计算正常运行时管道不同位置处横截面内最大Von-Mises应力.最后得到了Von-Mises应力沿管道轴线分布情况,发现内管和单层连接管的应力一般比外管大,变径管和内管的焊缝处是Von-Mises应力最大的地方.     

全球变化中的北极碳汇：现状与未来

由于海冰覆盖，北极碳汇（Arctic Carbon Sink）在全球碳通量预算中经常被忽略或简单处理。但随着全球变化加剧，北极发生快速变化，北极碳循环及其对全球变化的响应与反馈日趋重要。综合对北极碳汇的研究结果，分析了北极碳汇的来源、变化以及主要调控因子，评估了北极碳汇现状。探讨了在全球变化中，影响北极碳汇变化的因素及其对未来北极碳汇变化趋势的影响。 