基于雷达资料的定量降水预报外推算法试验

摘要：目前贵州在短时临近降水预报客观算法方面研究匮乏，而短时强降水常常给贵州造成严重的洪涝灾害和地质灾害。将短时临近降水预报应用于气象防灾减灾、电网输电线路安全预警、水利防洪自动化方面是未来重要的研究应用方向。本文基于灾害天气短时临近系统（Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System，SWAN）的定量降水预报(QPF)产品进行0～2小时QPF外推试验研究。利用贵州省地面自动站数据、SWAN 输出的1h-QPF产品、SWAN 1h定量降水估测(QPE)产品。选取2018年3次典型暴雨个例进行试验，采用融合订正技术，利用相似离度算法对降水强度位相进行调整、Weibull分布算法对降水极值分布进行订正、改进后的交叉相关法(Improved Cross-correlation Extrapolation Method，COTREC)进行降水外推预报。通过主客观检验对比，初步说明基于Weibull分布算法的降水极值订正对降水极值分布有很好的模拟效果。融合订正外推的贵州省短时临近定量降水预报产品（Nowcasting precipitation forecast of GuiZhou，下文简写为GZ_NPF）在大于5mm以上量级降水的TS检验中评分更高。GZ_NPF的空报率明显降低，但空报率降低的代价是漏报率相对提高。GZ_NPF总的相对误差减小，格点总降水量与实况总降水量更为接近。试验说明新的融合订正外推算法提高了0～2h短时临近降水的预报能力。     

皖南低丘茶园土壤动物群落结构研究

本文是1986年10月—1988年10月对皖南低丘茶园土壤动物群落结构调查和研究的结果。调查期间共获大、中、小型土壤动物9468个,分别隶属于6门13纲37类。其中线虫类、螨类和蚁类为优势类群;线蚓类、弹尾类、鞘翅类幼虫、双翅类幼虫、蜘蛛类为常见类群,两者共占全捕量的94.03％。中小型土壤动物平均密度为1—2万个/m~2,大型土壤动物密度为200—500个/m~2。30年树龄茶园土壤动物群落的组成和数量最丰富,多样性、均匀性和密度-类群指数最高,其变化规律一般是30年茶园>20年茶园>15年茶园;7年树龄茶园群落土壤动物个体数虽少,但组成并不贫乏,且分布均匀,故多样性与密度-类群指数较高。土壤结构较好的黄红壤茶园各项指数大于土层薄、排水不良的黄棕壤茶园。群落各项指数秋季均大于春季。     

Upwelling and the distribution of chlorophyll a within the Bay of Concepción,Chile

The influence of upwelling on the distribution of chlorophyll a within the Bay of Concepción, Chile is discussed in light of continuous measurements of surface in vivo chlorophyll fluorescence and temperature taken simultaneously along horizontal transects, and hydrographic stations' data. Results suggest significant temporal variability both in the distribution of in vivo fluorescence, temperature and salinity within the Bay and in the characteristics of the exchange between the Bay and the adjacent shelf waters, induced by variable upwelling. Upwelling is produced by the predominant south-westerly winds during the summer. Significant variations in the wind direction occur with periods from two to seven days. During active upwelling, exchange is characterized by a surface outflow through the mouth of the Bay and an inflow at depth. Low chlorophyll fluorescence is confined to the upwelling areas on the eastern shore either within or outside the Bay; high chlorophyll fluorescence is confined to the central and western Bay. Density data suggest a three-layered circulation pattern at the mouth of the Bay during the upwelling relaxation involving an inflow both at the surface and bottom and outflow at mid-depth. Associated with this exchange is an active high chlorophyll transport from the Bay to the adjacent coastal waters at mid-depth and inflow of low chlorophyll water from the adjacent shelf at the surface and near the bottom.     

Stratigraphic analysis and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association

The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association between two sequences of nominal data is investigated under the assumption of independent random sampling from a multinomial distribution slightly modified to suit geological applications. This modification is due to merging consecutive strata of the same rock type into one lithological unit, and can be described by a simple Markov chain. A distinction is made between the case in which the theoretical frequencies are known, and the situation where these have to be estimated from the observed data.     

Distribution of <Superscript>226</Superscript>Ra in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea and its hydrologic implications

Radium-226 (²²⁶Ra) activities were measured in the surface water samples collected from the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea during the First Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition. The results showed that ²²⁶Ra concentrations in the surface water ranged from 0.28 to 1.56 Bq/m³ with an average of 0.76 Bq/m³ in the Arctic Ocean, and from 0.25 to 1.26 Bq/m³ with an average of 0.71 Bq/m³ in the Bering Sea. The values were obviously lower than those from open oceans in middle and low latitudes, indicating that the study area may be partly influenced by sea ice meltwater. In the Bering Sea, ²²⁶Ra in the surface water decreased northward, probably as a result of the exchange between the ²²⁶Ra-deficient sea ice meltwater and the ²²⁶Ra-rich Pacific water. In the Arctic Ocean, ²²⁶Ra in the surface water increased northward and eastward. This spatial distribution of ²²⁶Ra reflected the variation of the ²²⁶Ra-enriched river component in the water mass of the Arctic Ocean. The vertical profiles of ²²⁶Ra in the Canadian Basin showed a concentration maximum at 200 m, which could be attributed to the inputs of the Pacific water or/and the bottom shelf water with high ²²⁶Ra concentration. This conclusion was consistent with the results from ²H, ¹⁸O tracers.     

Distribution of ionospheric O<Superscript>+</Superscript> ion in synchronous altitude region

Based on satellite observation data, using dynamics equation, the ionospheric O⁺ ion’s distribution in the synchronous altitude region for different geomagnetic activity indexK _p is studied by theoretical modeling and numerical analyzing, and semi-empirical models for the O⁺ ion’s density and flux versus longitude in the synchronous altitude region for differentK _p are given. The main results show that in the synchronous altitude region: (i) The O⁺ ion’s density and flux in day-side are larger than those in nightside. (ii) With longitude changing, the higher the geomagnetic activity indexK _p is, the higher the O⁺ ion’s density and flux, and their variation amplitude will be. The O⁺ ion’s density and flux whenK _{p ≥} 6 will be about ten times as great as that whenK _p = 0. (iii) WhenK _p = 0 orK _{p ≥} 6, the O⁺ ion’s density reaches maximum at longitudes 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail. WhenK _p = 3−5, the O⁺ ion’s density gets to maximum at longitude 0°, and minimum in the magnetotail. However, the O⁺ ion’s flux reaches maximum at longitude 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail for anyK _p value.     

额尔齐斯河流域及某稀有多金属矿废水铀、钍含量分布及其环境影响

运用简易、快捷、灵敏的ICP-MS法直接测定稀有多金属矿以及河水样品中的铀钍含量,并推算其与比放射性活度之间的定量关系,客观评价了某稀有多金属矿废水中的放射性水平以及额尔齐斯河流域的放射性污染现状。研究表明,某稀有多金属选矿废水铀含量可达78．311μg/L,钍含量达0．627μg/L。额尔齐斯河流域各支流河水铀、钍平均含量分别为0．584μg/L、0．025μg/L,其干流河水钍平均含量为0．019μg/L,而铀平均含量达2．234μg/L,远高于世界河水铀平均含量0．309μg/L。     

云南境内澜沧江流域土地利用时空变化特征及动因分析

    澜沧江-湄公河是一条集内河、界河、国际河流为一体的河流。云南境内澜沧江流域涉及云南西部 7个地州39个县市。复杂的地形地貌结构和多种气候带,形成植被垂直分布和地域分布的特点,呈现出多样性变化特征;域内94％为山区;占流域人口83％的民族（18个少数民族）大分散小聚居立体分布在山区,土地资源一直是他们赖以生存的最主要的生产生活资料,不同民族土地利用习俗,使流域内土地利用格局呈现出多元化特征。在这样一个边疆山区民族地区,寻求一条多元民族文化下土地资源合理利用和可持续发展战略,是加强民族团结,寻求均等发展机会脱贫致富,实现各民族共同繁荣和富裕的关键。
    采用遥感（RS）、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球卫星定位系统（GPS）高新技术,典型地区启用了快速农村评估（PRA,RapidRuralAppraise）方法,对流域1990年、1998年土地利用现状及空间结构演变进行了时空动态叠合研究、森林土地时空动态的整体演变研究以及变化动因分析,在此基础上,就多元民族文化下土地利用人地系统演变和流域发展的关联问题,提出一些看法,仅供商榷。     

鄂尔多斯盆地白垩系含水层沉积学初探

“含水层沉积学”是沉积学、水文地质学、油气储层地质学、地球化学等相互交叉综合的产物,是以沉积学、水文地质学理论为基础,以沉积含水层为主要研究对象,以查明地下水赋存和循环条件、地下水系统结构特征、地下水水质成因与分布以及地下水富集规律为主要研究内容,最终服务于地下水资源勘查评价的一门边缘分支学科。含水层沉积学及水文地质综合研究表明,受到沉积相类型及其空间展布的明显控制,鄂尔多斯盆地白垩系地下水赋存、循环、富集条件以及地下水水质分布总体具有北好南差、盆地南部具有下好上差的宏观规律。