Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

山东胜利油田车镇地区下古生界碳酸盐岩潜山储集层特征

碳酸盐岩潜山储层研究一直是油气地质研究领域的一个难点。以大量的岩心、薄片观察为基础 ,对研究区的岩石学特征进行描述 ,进而提出研究区 5种主要的储渗空间类型 :溶蚀孔隙型、溶蚀孔洞型、大型洞穴、风化裂隙型以及构造裂隙型储渗空间。通过研究认为 ,这 5种储渗空间构成了研究区的 5类储层 :风化裂隙型储层、构造裂隙型储层、裂隙孔洞型储层、溶蚀孔洞型储层以及洞穴型储层 ,其中以风化裂隙型储层、裂隙—孔洞型储层以及溶蚀孔洞型储层为主。结合钻井、录井、测井、试井资料 ,对 5类储层的特征进行总结 ,从而进一步对潜山储层发育作出评价 ,将研究区储层发育带分为 3类 ,提出车镇地区下古潜山储层主要沿北东—南西方向呈条带状规律展布的观点。     

抗拔桩轴力分布函数和位移分布函数间的关系模型

为了从荷载传递微分方程导出具有实际意义的非线性解析解,建立一种简单的沿桩长轴力分布函数和位移分布函数之间的关系模型U(z)-?(z)是非常重要的。采用建立经验公式类数学模型的方法,从几何作图法获得的U(z)-?(z)曲线的形状入手,通过对若干个数学模型的试算,确定了指数形式的模型,并对模型中的参数意义和确定进行了讨论,认为参数?,b只与桩顶和桩底位移有关。     

Turbidite bed thickness distributions: methods and pitfalls of analysis and modelling

Turbidite bed thickness distributions are often interpreted in terms of power laws, even when there are significant departures from a single straight line on a log–log exceedence probability plot. Alternatively, these distributions have been described by a lognormal mixture model. Statistical methods used to analyse and distinguish the two models (power law and lognormal mixture) are presented here. In addition, the shortcomings of some frequently applied techniques are discussed, using a new data set from the Tarcău Sandstone of the East Carpathians, Romania, and published data from the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation of Italy. Log–log exceedence plots and least squares fitting by themselves are inappropriate tools for the analysis of bed thickness distributions; they must be accompanied by the assessment of other types of diagrams (cumulative probability, histogram of log‐transformed values, q–q plots) and the use of a measure of goodness‐of‐fit other than R², such as the chi‐square or the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. When interpreting data that do not follow a single straight line on a log–log exceedence plot, it is important to take into account that ‘segmented’ power laws are not simple mixtures of power law populations with arbitrary parameters. Although a simple model of flow confinement does result in segmented plots at the centre of a basin, the segmented shape of the exceedence curve breaks down as the sampling location moves away from the basin centre. The lognormal mixture model is a sedimentologically intuitive alternative to the power law distribution. The expectation–maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters and thus to model lognormal bed thickness mixtures. Taking into account these observations, the bed thickness data from the Tarcău Sandstone are best described by a lognormal mixture model with two components. Compared with the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation, in which bed thicknesses of thin beds have a larger variability than thicknesses of the thicker beds, the thinner‐bedded population of the Tarcău Sandstone has a lower variability than the thicker‐bedded population. Such differences might reflect contrasting depositional settings, such as the difference between channel levées and basin plains.     

Moving load response of an axially loaded Timoshenko beam on a multilayered transversely isotropic half-space comprising different media

This paper investigates the dynamic response of an axially loaded Timoshenko beam coupled with a multilayered transversely isotropic (TI) half-space subjected to a moving load. An axial force induced by the thermal expansion is taken into account in the Timoshenko beam. The half-space considers the alternate distribution of an arbitrary number of TI elastic and poroelastic layers to model foundation soils with different properties and moisture conditions. To solve the governing equations, Fourier transform is adopted. The stratified foundation is formulated by extending an “adapted stiffness matrix method” to a more general scenario with an arbitrary number of layers. The beam is then coupled with the foundation to derive solutions to the system in the frequency-wavenumber domain. The final results in the time-spatial domain are recovered by the inverse Fourier transform. After confirming the accuracy of the method in this study, the influences of the pore water existence, the transverse isotropy of different parameters, and the axial force are investigated. It can be observed that the effect of pore water existence on the maximum beam deflection can reach 22% in this study. The transverse isotropy of the elastic and shear moduli influences the critical speed of the beam deflection by altering the phase velocity of the first wave propagation mode of the beam-foundation system. The vertical permeability coefficient is more important than the horizontal one in determining the excess pore pressure. The rise of the beam temperature (axial force) decreases the critical speed and magnifies the vibrations.     

基于地理信息的大型场馆区域人员疏散模型设计

采用了Geodatabase空间数据模型,建立了地理信息数据库,设计了基于地理信息的人员疏散模型。     

基于偏正态概率分布的粒度分布次总体分离及其沉积环境指示意义

沉积物颗粒是某种沉积环境和水动力条件下多个沉积过程的最终产物。粒度分布是原始沉积信息的载体,是来自不同沉积过程的多个次总体的叠加,频率曲线可能表现为双峰或者多峰特征。传统的沉积学粒度分析方法并未深入研究次总体;常见的概率分布模型在分离次总体后无法全面计算统计参数。本文以214份鄱阳湖现代沉积物的粒度分布数据为例,利用偏正态概率分布模型共分离提取977个次总体,计算各个次总体的统计参数,并对比分析了不同沉积环境中次总体参数的异同。结果表明：① 次总体均值、方差、偏度、峰度、所占百分比和最大频率等参数规律明显;② 从曲流河河道到河流末端、在河流末端顺流方向上和河道左右两侧远离河道方向上,粒度分布中主要次总体粒度均值逐渐减小,河道间洼地和湖区沉积物粒度分布的各个次总体占比接近;③ 江心洲的河道砂和河漫滩细粒粒度分布分别由3种和5种不同类型次总体组成。该方法可为沉积环境的定量判断和沉积过程的定量研究提供参考。     

Distribution Patterns of Calcite Cement in the Turbidite Sandstones of the Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Depression, Eastern China

Calcite cements are volumetrically dominant among the most diagenetic constituents in turbidite sandstones of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Depression. The results show carbonate cements mainly occur in three phases: Calcite I (pre-compaction), Calcite II (post-compaction) and ankerite in the turbidite sandstone. The isotopic composition of Calcite I and Calcite II range from ?4.3‰ to 4.4‰, ?3.5‰ to 4.3‰ PDB, respectively, suggesting that the calcite cements are mainly derived from the interbedded shales. The early calcite cement precipitated from the mixing of lacustrine and meteoric waters at 38–69°C. The late-phase calcite precipitated from pore waters modified by water-rock interactions at 64–126°C. Two distribution patterns of calcite cements can be identified, depending on their position within the sandstone. The peripheral cementation of the sandstones is near the sand-shale contact. The development of cement is controlled by sandstone thickness and the properties of the interbedded shale. For scattered cementation, the distribution of the calcite cement is not controlled by the sand-shale contact. Calcite cement was preferentially distributed in coarse-grained sandstones, indicating that sandstones with high original permeability are the preferred pathway for the migration of early diagenetic fluids.     

强震区叠溪松坪沟景区地质灾害发育分布规律

以强震区叠溪松坪沟景区为研究范围区,通过多元信息手段调查,共发现地质灾害107处,其中崩塌82处,滑坡25处。地质灾害的发育分布的影响因素包括：原始坡度、高程、坡体结构、水系距离及断裂带距离等。灾害发育分布在坡度30°～50°数量多且规模大;高程2200～3400 m灾害发育数量多,尤其是高程2600～3000 m占总量的42.5%,规模则在高程为3400~3600 m较大;斜向坡体发育地质灾害数量及规模均较大,其次为顺向坡和反倾坡;水系对灾害一般最大影响距离为4.0 km,其中0～1.0 km范围内灾害发育,且规模较大;地质灾害沿地震断裂带呈次“串珠状”分布,0～2.0 km范围内最为显著发育,且符合一定的拟合规律。通过统计归纳分析,厘定了强震区叠溪松坪沟景区范围内地质灾害的发育的主要影响因素,系统的总结了其分布规律,为研究区内的基础建设以及防灾减灾提供了科学依据和参考。     

三江平原西部土壤硒分布特征及其影响因素

近年来在黑龙江三江平原局部地区发现有珍贵的富硒土地,但对三江平原土壤硒的分布以及土壤硒含量的控制因素研究较少.三江平原西部地区土地质量地球化学调查发现,该区表层土壤主要以足硒为主,未见硒中毒土壤,富硒土壤主要分布于完达山山前至沿挠力河之间的冲湖积低平原地区,少量分布于萝北县城北部的湖成剥蚀台地,硒不足或硒潜在不足地区主...