10──20天准双周振荡的经向传播及地理特征

本文采用ＥＣＭＷＦ１９８３年７月１日至９月１２日逐日２００ｈＰａ纬向风场资料，用复经验正交方法讨论了１０－２０天低频振荡的经向传播及地理特征。结果表明：（１）１０－－２天振荡有三个显著区域：贝加尔湖附近地区；赤道９０°Ｅ附近以及新加坡、马来西亚地区；８０－１００°Ｅ，２２－３２°Ｎ之间。（２）源于较高纬度地区的振荡与源于赤道附近地区的振荡在１０５°Ｅ，１７—２３°Ｎ附近同位相相遇，在９０°Ｅ，２０°Ｎ附近反位相相叠加，振荡相互削弱，在２５°Ｎ附近同位相相遇。（３）从振荡位相来看，中南半岛东南部、马来西亚北部、菲律宾以西区域的振荡向北传播到中国东南沿海，向西传播到孟加拉湾印度半岛；２０°Ｎ以南低纬度地区的振荡很少能传播到８０°Ｅ以东３０°Ｎ附近地区；位于９０－９５°Ｅ，２５－２７°Ｎ之间的振荡以及贝加尔湖附近地区的振荡可以向南北两个方向传播。     

新疆大风的时空统计特征

统计了1961－1999年39a新疆90个气象观测站的气表－1资料，给出新疆大风的时空分布特征，结果表明：（1）年平均大风日数的高值区在北疆西北部，东疆和南疆西部，阿拉山口，达坂城大风最多，准噶尔盆地中心，塔里木盆地南缘最少。（2）大风年总日数的变化有明显的波动性，大部分地区80年代起大风日数有减少的趋势。（3）春，夏季大风最多，以5，6月最为频敏，大风主要出现在上年10时到午夜23时，半数以上的大风持续时间在1h以上，以0.5h以内最多。     

A Comparison of Four Precipitation Distribution Models Used in Daily Stochastic Models

Stochastic weather generators are statistical models that produce random numbers that resemble the observed weather data on which they have been fitted; they are widely used in meteorological and hydrologi- cal simulations. For modeling daily precipitation in weather generators, first-order Markov chain-dependent exponential, gamma, mixed-exponential, and lognormal distributions can be used. To examine the perfor- mance of these four distributions for precipitation simulation, they were fitted to observed data collected at 10 stations in the watershed of Yishu River. The parameters of these models were estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique performed using genetic algorithms. Parameters for each calendar month and the Fourier series describing parameters for the whole year were estimated separately. Bayesian infor- mation criterion, simulated monthly mean, maximum daily value, and variance were tested and compared to evaluate the fitness and performance of these models. The results indicate that the lognormal and mixed-exponential distributions give smaller BICs, but their stochastic simulations have overestimation and underestimation respectively, while the gamma and exponential distributions give larger BICs, but their stochastic simulations produced monthly mean precipitation very well. When these distributions were fitted using Fourier series, they all underestimated the above statistics for the months of June, July and August.     

河南省近年来遥感监测的森林火灾时空分布规律分析

森林火灾作为一种自然灾害,其发生原因不仅来自于自然因素,从众多的火灾调查中发现,更多地来自于人类活动因素,其发生的时空分布特点和规律,受自然和人类活动共同影响.对2003-2008年春、冬季(11月-次年4月)河南省森林防火期内遥感监测并已查明的森林火灾进行统计分析,结果发现:河南省森林火灾近年来有逐年增多的趋势;冬、春之交的3月为森林火灾的高发月份;从火灾的日变化规律来看,12-15时为一天中森林火灾的高发时段;从火灾发生的空间分布来看,伏牛山南麓发生森林火灾的频率较高.     

辽宁雾预报区的划分初探

分析了1997—2006年辽宁境内能见度小于1000 m雾的时空分布特征。结果表明：就雾发生的频率而言,辽宁存在两个高值区和两个低值区,高值区分别位于黄海北部沿岸至辽宁东部山区和锦州北部至阜新一带,低值区分别位于辽宁中北部平原以及朝阳地区。从雾的日变化上看,近86%的雾出现在夜间,近69%的雾出现在02-08时,且多为辐射雾。地域不同但气候条件相近时,雾的日变化与雾发生的次数存在极其相似的特点。依据相似的地理环境和气候条件、雾的日变化特征以及雾发生次数等,将辽宁划分为5个预报区,对雾采取分区预报,以提高雾预报的准确率。     

Size Distributions and Elemental Compositions of Particulate Matter on Clear, Hazy and Foggy days in Beijing, China

Total suspended particulates(TSP)samples were collected using low pressure impactors(Andersen Series 20-800,USA)on typical clear,hazy and foggy days in Beijing in order to investigate the characteristics of size distributions and elemental compositions of particulate matter(PM)in different weather conditions. The concentrations of sixteen elements,including Na,Mg,Al,K,Ca,Mn,Fe,Ni,Cu,Zn,As,Se,Cd,Ba,Tl and Pb were detected using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS).The results showed that Ca,Al,Fe,Mg and Ba on foggy days were 2.0-2.6 times higher than on clear days,and 2.3-2.9 times higher than on hazy days.Concentrations of Cu,Zn,As,Se and Pb on foggy days were 163.5,1186.7,65.9,32.0 and 708.2 ng m-3,respectively,in fine particles,and 68.1,289.5,19.8,1.6 and 103.8 ng m-3,respectively,in coarse particles.This was 1.0-8.4 times higher and 1.4-7.4 times higher than on clear and hazy days,respectively.It is then shown that Mg,Al,Fe,Ca and Ba were mainly associated with coarse particles,peaking at 4.7-5.8μm;that Cd,Se,Zn,As,Tl and Pb were most dominant in fine particles,peaking at 0.43-1.1μm;and that Na,K,Ni,Cu and Mn had a multi-mode distribution,with peaks at 0.43-1.1μm and 4.7-5.8μm.The enrichment factors indicated that coal combustion along with vehicle and industry emissions may be the main sources of pollution elements.     

The High Concentration Tails Of The Probability Density Function Of A Dispersing Scalar In The Atmosphere

The distribution function for concentrations of a scalar pollutant dispersing in the turbulent atmosphere has a finite domain that is bounded above and below. Three methods, based on extreme value statistics, are used to obtainestimates for the upper bound and to describe the high concentration tailbehaviour of the distribution; all three methods are applied to concentrationdata obtained from experimental atmospheric releases. Quantile quantile (QQ)plots are used to assess the goodness of fit of the resulting estimates of thedistribution, and also to compare the performance of the three methods. Thepredicted values for the upper bound are orders of magnitude less than thesource concentration, illustrating that molecular diffusion has a large effecton the high concentrations.     

青藏高原四季划分方法探讨

利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的青藏高原60个测站1961~2007年逐日气温资料,分析常用的四季划分方法在高原的适用性,指出各种四季划分方法的不足和局限,并根据四季持续时间的合理性、物候特征、海拔高度、气候（温度）分布特征等因素提出了针对不同的生产、生活目的而建立的新四季划分方法。探讨认为：（1）根据高原物候特征和气温相结合的方式得到的＂物候四季划分方法＂即＂4℃-12℃-10℃-1℃＂对高原农牧业尤为适合;（2）＂海拔季节划分方法＂对高原旅游和人们衣着尤为适合,海拔季节划分方法把高原分成二个区：海拔4000m以上四季划分方法为＂5℃-12℃-12℃-5℃＂,4000m以下四季划分方法为＂5℃-15℃-15℃-5℃;＂（3）＂生活季节划分方法＂对高原不同区域的生产生活尤为适合,生活季节划分方法将高原分为三个区：Ⅰ区四季划分方法为＂6℃-16℃-16℃-6℃＂,Ⅱ区四季划分方法为＂5℃-12℃-12℃-5℃＂,Ⅲ区四季划分方法＂7℃-7℃＂划分春冬和秋冬,不存在夏季。最后,综合以上各种方法的优缺点,初步定义＂高原普适季节划分方法＂即＂5℃-15℃-15℃-5℃＂为高原总体的四季划分方法,对高原整体的国民经济和政府活动、旅游、人们的衣着、生活生产、季节类产品的销售具有总体的指导意义。     

成都市近地表大气尘的矿物学特征及其环境指示意义

通过对成都市近地表大气尘X射线衍射、电镜扫描分析等研究显示:其主要由石英、长石、伊利石、绿泥石、方解石、石膏等矿物组成;就其形状看有致密的不规则粒状、片状单矿物、不规则粒状聚合体、浑圆形球状飘珠、聚合体放大观察可见片状的粘土矿物和细小的粒状单矿物,偶见藻类;矿物形貌特征及矿物组成空间分布特征的研究显示:球形状飘珠及伊利石、绿泥石、石膏的空间分布特征与工业布局和表层土壤的pH值密切相关,成都市近地表大气尘主要为地表扬尘和工业烟尘的混合物;与土壤的矿物组成比较可见,近地表大气尘重金属污染除土壤贡献外,还有其他污染贡献;石膏在本次研究中平均含量高达8.2%,推测可能成为成都市往年燃煤量大而无明显酸雨现象的原因之一。     

海洋平台复杂节点阴极保护电位分布的有限元法计算

了解阴极保护电位分布是合理设计阴极保护工程的必要条件和评价阴极保护效果的重要依据。本文应用有限元素法(FEM)计算海洋平台复杂节点表面的阴极保护电位分布。在实验室通过边界条件试验建立数学模型,计算海水中被保护的I,Y,K型复杂节点电位分布情况。计算结果与测量结果吻合得很好,说明FEM能够应用于海洋平台复杂节点阴极保护电位分布的计算,所获得的边界条件合理。