山东降水回波移动特征分析

利用济南新一代多普勒雷达在4年之间获取的217个观测资料,分析了回波的移动特征。主要结果为：（1）计算了回波移动速度、方向,结果表明回波移动速度在10.0~95.0 km·h-1之间,峰值在45.0~50.0 km·h-1,不同月份回波移动速度存在差别,春末（5月）、秋初（9月）回波具有较大的移动速度;回波移动方向在120°~360°之间,其中80.6%集中在210°~315°之间,回波移向比较集中在西南、西和西北方向。（2）降水过程回波的运动特征可以概括为四种形式：简单直线型、复合直线型、复杂移动型和其他类型,各种类型占的比例分别为69.6%、19.4%、25.2%和4.7%。这些研究可以为人工影响天气方案的设计和临近预报服务提供参考依据。     

多变量均生函数的正交化筛选方案在季节降水预报中的试验研究

用预报量与多变量预报因子的均值生成函数,通过Ｇｒａｍ－Ｓｃｈｍｉｄｔ正交化使均值生成函数彼此正交,同时利用双评分准则确定入选预报模型的均生函数个数,最后建立山西省季节降水的预报模型。试验结果表明,该模型预报山西省季节降水的效果很好,是一种提高短期区域气候预报水平的可行方法。     

1997年新疆伽师强震群发展过程中发震断层间相互作用的影响

1997年发生在新疆伽师的强震群迄今仍在持续活动，从1997年1月21日震群发生至1997年10月18日，共发生5级以上地震15次.震群发生前，该地区几乎没有地震活动.根据伽师震群地震的精确定位结果及震源机制解，我们设定该震群的发震构造是一组NNW（北北西）向的雁形右旋走滑断层和一组NE（北东）向雁形正倾滑断层.并以此作为模拟该区域理论地震活动的力学模型，开展震群区域理论地震活动的模拟研究.模拟结果证实了断层间的相互作用或应力传递能产生震群活动的猜测，并对伽师震群中为何部分地震的震源机制是正断层进行了合理解释.进一步推测伽师位于地壳厚度的陡变带也可能是引起该地区地震活动丛集发生的原因.     

海南省气象服务产品分发系统设计与应用

为了适应不断变化的业务需求,海南省气象服务中心设计开发了省级气象服务产品分发系统。该系统是一个功能比较完善的桌面业务系统,通过整合原有的业务系统,涵盖采集、制作、发布、监控4个业务过程,应用本地缓存机制和智能文本生成等技术来提高系统运行效率,提升业务流程自动化程度,使产品制作的质量易于把控,系统运行的状态易于维护监控。系统投入业务运行后,明显提高了业务一线人员的工作效率,减少了业务工作的疏漏,能够快速向服务用户提供实时、准确的气象服务产品。     

Sterane isomerisation and moretane/hopane ratios in crude oils derived from Tertiary source rocks

The extent of sterane isomerisation reactions and the moretane/hopane ratios of 234 crude oils, taken world wide, from a wide variety of source rocks of differing geological ages, have been measured.This data indicates that in 78 crude oils derived from Tertiary source rocks, sterane isomerisation reactions as determined by the 20S/(20S + 20R) ration of the C₂₉ 5α(H), 14α(H), 17α(H) normal-steranes and the C₂₉ iso/(iso + normal) ratio [iso = 5α (H), 14β(H), 17β(H)] are mainly incomplete and sometimes considerably so. In addition, the same crude oils have 17β(H), 21α(H)-moretane/17α(H), 21β(H)-hopane ratios which are significantly greater (predominantly in the range 0.10–0.30) than those of crude oils derived from older, mature source rocks (mainly less than 0.1).This data, for crude oils, lends support to the hypothesis, proposed by Mackenzie and McKenzie (1983) for source rock extracts, that the time/temperature constraints of sterane isomerisation reactions are such that the time available for isomerisation in Tertiary sediments is generally insufficient, despite generation of crude oil at relatively high temperatures.An alternative hypothesis is that the incomplete sterane isomerisation of Tertiary crude oils may be due to generation of these crude oils from their deltaic, land plant-containing source rocks under low heating conditions.A third hypothesis proposes that the Tertiary crude oils may have picked up the incompletely isomerised steranes from immature sediments during migration. Although possible in particular instances, such a mechanism does not appear to be generally applicable since, in that case, the phenomenon would then appear to be restricted to the Tertiary.The higher moretane/hopane ratios of the Tertiary crude oils could suggest that constraints, similar to those applying in sterane isomerisation, also operate in the conversion of moretane to 17α(H)-hopane.     

烃源岩催化酯生烃动力学研究——以东营凹陷沙河街组三、四段烃源岩为例

烃源岩生烃动力学广泛应用于含油气盆地烃源岩评价与勘探中。为模拟低成熟烃源岩的实际沉积环境,实验选取了抽提有机质后的东营凹陷下第三系沙河街组三、四段烃源岩为矿物催化剂,以十八烷酸甲酯为模型化合物,在高压下做矿物低温催化脂肪酸酯脱羧生烃动力学实验。求取了化学反应的动力学参数,并分析了烃源岩层段的pH值与Eh值。结果表明,矿物对脂肪酸酯的脱羧生烃具有明显的催化作用,用连串反应模型处理脂肪酸酯的水解反应基本上为一级反应,而生烃反应则基本上为零级反应。认为对于同一类型的烃源岩,其所处的氧化还原环境对有机质的生烃有较大的影响;而对于不同的烃源岩,矿物的组成则起着非常重要的作用。     

湘中坳陷上古生界碳酸盐岩烃源岩特征及生烃模式

据野外露头观察和采样分析,湘中坳陷上古生界碳酸盐岩烃源岩以泥质灰岩、泥灰岩和石灰岩为主,生油母质以偏泥型为主,烃源岩的沉积厚度大、分布范围广,并具有有机碳丰度高、样品达标率高、热演化程度高的"三高"特点。在对碳酸盐岩烃源岩热演化研究的基础上总结出生烃模式,认为本区的生烃分为原始沥青解聚成烃、干酪根降解成烃、包裹有机质释放成烃和热裂解气共四个成烃阶段。     

A numerical investigation of bedrock groundwater recharge and exfiltration on soil mantled hillslopes

Here we use Richards Equation models of variably saturated soil and bedrock groundwater flow to investigate first-order patterns of the coupling between soil and bedrock flow systems. We utilize a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis to identify important hillslope parameters controlling bedrock recharge and then model the transient response of bedrock and soil flow to seasonal precipitation. Our results suggest that hillslopes can be divided into three conceptual zones of groundwater interaction, (a) the zone of lateral unsaturated soil moisture accumulation (upper portion of hillslope), (b) the zone of soil saturation and bedrock recharge (middle of hillslope) and (c) the zone of saturated-soil lateral flow and bedrock groundwater exfiltration (bottom of hillslope). Zones of groundwater interaction expand upslope during periods of precipitation and drain downslope during dry periods. The amount of water partitioned to the bedrock groundwater system a can be predicted by the ratio of bedrock to soil saturated hydraulic conductivity across a variety of hillslope configurations. Our modelled processes are qualitatively consistent with observations of shallow subsurface saturation and groundwater fluctuation on hillslopes studied in our two experimental watersheds and support a conceptual model of tightly coupled shallow and deep subsurface circulation where groundwater recharge and discharge continuously stores and releases water from longer residence time storage.     

On the contribution of groundwater to streamflow in laterite catchments of the Darling Range,south-western Australia

In deeply weathered laterite catchments of the Darling Range in south-western Australia, the direct contribution (i.e., discharge) of permanent groundwater to streamflow has long been considered as minor. Instead, downslope shallow throughflow was thought to dominate, generating more than 90% of streamflow. We used a chemical hydrograph separation approach to estimate annual groundwater discharge for three catchments over periods of up to 39 years, and found that direct groundwater contributions to streamflow were far more variable across catchments and through time than has previously been acknowledged. The estimated proportion of annual streamflow sourced directly from groundwater ranged from 0 to 93% and was related linearly to the size of the groundwater discharge area in the catchment valley floor. In contrast, contributions from shallow sources including shallow throughflow varied primarily and linearly with annual rainfall. However, the response to rainfall was “amplified” in a predictable way by the size of the groundwater discharge area, consistent with the variable source area concept. We derived a functional relationship between catchment annual rainfall-runoff ratio and groundwater discharge area and successfully applied this to a further four catchments, inferring that the results were broadly applicable across the Darling Range. The implications for an improved understanding of streamflow generating processes in the study region, and for laterite catchments generally, are discussed.     

Hydrograph separation using tracers and digital filters to quantify runoff components in a semi‐arid mesoscale catchment

Chemical hydrograph separation using electrical conductivity and digital filters is applied to quantify runoff components in the 1,640 km² semi‐arid Kaap River catchment and its subcatchments in South Africa. A rich data set of weekly to monthly water quality data ranging from 1978 to 2012 (450 to 940 samples per site) was analysed at 4 sampling locations in the catchment. The data were routinely collected by South Africa's national Department of Water and Sanitation, using standard sampling procedures. Chemical hydrograph separation using electrical conductivity (EC) as a tracer was used as reference and a recursive digital filter was then calibrated for the catchment. Results of the two‐component hydrograph separation indicate the dominance of baseflow in the low flow regime, with a contribution of about 90% of total flow; however, during the wet season, baseflow accounts for 50% of total flow. The digital filter parameters were very sensitive and required calibration, using chemical hydrograph separation as a reference. Calibrated baseflow estimates ranged from 40% of total flow at the catchment outlet to 70% in the tributaries. The study demonstrates that routinely monitored water quality data, especially EC, can be used as a meaningful tracer, which could also aid in the calibration of a digital filter method and reduce uncertainty of estimated flow components. This information enhances our understanding of how baseflow is generated and contributed to streamflow throughout the year, which can aid in quantification of environmental flows, as well as to better parameterize hydrological models used for water resources planning and management. Baseflow estimates can also be useful for groundwater and water quality management.