基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

Centrifugal test of a road embankment built after new dredger fill on thick marine clay

Abstract

The construction of a 100-km road network is planned on a land reclamation area in the Oujiang Estuary in China. The embankment had a height of 4 m and a base width of 60 m. The reclamation area is newly filled by a 3-m dredger fill on a 48-m thick layer of marine clay. Estimation of the settlement of the future road network is difficult. To guide the construction of the road network, a 1/100-scale centrifuge model test was performed with a marine clay sample from the construction site to simulate the layered settlements and evaluate the drainage effect of prefabricated vertical drains in the dredger fill in the following 10 years. The results of the centrifuge modeling test are verified by 10-month in situ monitoring, which shows agreement between the centrifuge modeling test results and the in situ results. The test results indicate that additional time is needed to reinforce the newly added dredger fill by the surcharge preloading method to uplift the elevation of the reclamation area with dredger fill.     

Prediction of local scour around circular piles under waves using a novel artificial intelligence approach

Abstract

The scour phenomena around vertical piles in oceans and under waves may influence the structure stability. Therefore, accurately predicting the scour depth is an important task in the design of piles. Empirical approaches often do not provide the required accuracy compared with data mining methods for modeling such complex processes. The main objective of this study is to develop three data-driven methods, locally weighted linear regression (LWLR), support vector machine (SVR), and multivariate linear regression (MLR) to predict the scour depth around vertical piles due to waves in a sand bed. It is the first effort to develop the LWLR to predict scour depth around vertical piles. The models simulate the scour depth mainly based on Shields parameter, pile Reynolds number, grain Reynolds number, Keulegan–Carpenter number, and sediment number. 111 laboratory datasets, derived from several experimental studies, were used for the modeling. The results indicated that the LWLR provided highly accurate predictions of the scour depths around piles (R?=?0.939 and RMSE = 0.075). Overall, this study demonstrated that the LWLR can be used as a valuable tool to predict the wave-induced scour around piles.     

地震折射波的虚拟射线理论及其应用

本文提出了一种地震折射液的虚拟射线理论,根据该理论,只要已知地表层的速度,即可直接由折射波信息提取地震参数,从而可实现折射界面的反演。 文中通过实际介质模型的计算机实验结果,验证了该理论的正确性。     

渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报

"十·五"期间,我国开展了三维海洋温度和海流数值预报的业务化研究工作.经过3年的努力,渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报系统研制完成,并于2003年10月,开始试预报.本文对该预报系统以及运行情况进行了介绍,并分析了所存在的问题和发展方向.     

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。     

Modeling of coupled tide–wave–surge process in the Yellow Sea

A coupled wave–tide–surge model has been developed in this study in order to investigate the effect of the interactions among tides, storm surges, and wind waves. The coupled model is based on the synchronous dynamic coupling of a third-generation wave model, WAM cycle 4, and the two-dimensional tide–surge model. The surface stress, which is generated by interactions between wind and wave, is calculated by using the WAM model directly based on an analytical approximation of the results using the quasi-linear theory of wave generation. The changes in bottom friction are created by the interactions between waves and currents and calculated by using simplified bottom boundary layer model. In consequence, the combined wave–current-induced bottom velocity and effective bottom drag coefficient were increased in the shallow waters during the strong storm conditions.     

Using the Mellor–Yamada mixing scheme in seasonally ice-covered seas—Corrigendum to: Parameterization of vertical mixing in the Weddell Sea [Ocean Modelling 6 (2004) 83–100]

A coding error in the s-Coordinate Primitive Equation Model (SPEM) has led to misleading statements about the behaviour of the Mellor–Yamada level 2 parameterization of vertical mixing. It has been claimed that the scheme removes static instability only very slowly and preserves statically unstable stratifications for an unrealistic long time. This note corrects this statement by demonstrating that the Mellor–Yamada mixing scheme, if implemented correctly, tends to overestimate rather than underestimate vertical mixing in seasonally ice-covered seas. Similar to other mixing schemes with the same behaviour, this leads to spurious open ocean deep convection, an unrealistic homogenization of the water column, and a significant reduction of sea ice volume.