中国城乡福祉差距及其影响因素研究

从教育、医疗、收入和消费水平4个维度构建城乡福祉差距测度指标体系并测算城乡福祉差距指数,揭示中国城乡福祉差距的时空变化;利用2008—2017年中国内地除西藏以外30个省份的面板数据,分析城镇化对中国城乡福祉差距的影响及其区域差异。结果表明:2008—2017年,中国城乡福祉差距指数增大但城乡福祉差距的空间差异逐渐减小;城镇化对全国以及西部地区的城乡福祉差距具有显著负向作用,对东部与中部影响作用甚微;加大财政支农力度、提高农村社会保障水平、引导资本下乡均能缩小城乡福祉差距。     

Gender bias in the convergence dynamics of the regional homicide rates in Mexico

The geography of violence in Mexico has changed in recent years because of an explosive increase in regional homicide rates since 2006. This study relies on spatial statistical data analysis to address the issue of convergence in homicide victim rates across Mexican municipalities from 2001 to 2010. Based on the results of spatial panel modeling, we conclude that despite strong regional disparities in murders, municipal-level homicide growth rates display a pattern of convergence with spatial interaction features. This convergent pattern is gender-specific; the homicide growth rates for females show stronger convergence than those for males when local and regional factors are not considered. We postulate that homicide growth dynamics among females more closely follow the predictions of the “modernization hypothesis” than do the dynamics among males. This finding suggests that violence (specifically, homicides) against women in Mexico is driven by underlying factors other than short-term factors, such as drug cartel dynamics, and regional factors, such as local institutions and governments. The data might support the long-established feminist hypothesis that contends that violence against women follows specific dynamics that are different from the dynamics of violence against men.     

位移释放率对双护盾TBM护盾压力的影响研究

为了研究隧洞纵向位移（LDP）释放率对双护盾隧洞掘进机（TBM）围岩变形及护盾压力的影响,在FLAC3D中采用应力释放法对LDP曲线实现了较好的控制,并指出采用计算时间步控制的缺陷,在考虑护盾与围岩之间不均匀间隙情况下,详细分析了应力释放率对TBM掘进中围岩LDP曲线变化规律、护盾所受挤压力及围岩塑性区的影响。得出了以下结论：（1）不同岩体力学参数下,LDP曲线受应力释放率的敏感程度不同;（2）随着应力释放率的逐渐增加,围岩LDP曲线特征及与TBM护盾相互接触的部位有所不同,TBM护盾接触挤压力和所受摩擦阻力逐渐增大;（3）护盾外围塑性区的形状与应力释放率和护盾与围岩之间的不均匀间隙有关,当在较大的应力释放率下,塑性区呈现自上而下逐渐减小的特征。     

中国制造业分布的地理变迁与驱动因素

近年来中国制造业分布格局呈现出新的动向。以2004-2005年为转折点,以食品轻纺行业为主的部分制造业部门开始从沿海省份向中西部省份转移,北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东、福建等省份的产业份额明显下降,安徽、江西、湖南、河南、四川等中西部省份的产业份额趋于增加。在地市尺度上,制造业分布变化呈现出"西进北上"的特点,具体表现为产业份额从沿海发达城市转向沿海省份内部发展相对滞后的地市、以及中西部省份内部产业基础较好且本地市场规模较大的地市。中部地区的重点开发区域已成为承接产业转移的重要载体。沿海地区劳动力、土地等要素成本上升导致要素成本的区域差异不断扩大,与此同时中西部地区市场邻近和供给邻近逐步得到改善。沿海地区和中西部地区之间要素成本差异的扩大和贸易成本差异的缩小,使得贸易成本和要素成本的均衡关系发生逆转性变化,这是驱动中国产业分布地理变迁的核心因素。     

Modeling of wind gap formation and development of sedimentary basins during fold growth: application to the Zagros Fold Belt,Iran

Mountain building and landscape evolution are controlled by interactions between river dynamics and tectonic forces. Such interactions have been extensively studied, however a quantitative evaluation of tectonic/geomorphic feedbacks, which is imperative for understanding sediments routing within orogens and fold‐and‐thrust belts, remains to be undertaken. Here, we employ numerical simulations to assess the conditions of uplift and river incision necessary to deflect an antecedent drainage network during the growth of one, or several, folds. We propose that a partitioning of the river network into internal (endorheic) and longitudinal drainage arises as a result of lithological differences within the deforming crustal sedimentary cover. Using examples from the Zagros Fold Belt (ZFB), we show that drainage patterns can be linked to the non‐dimensional incision ratio R between successive lithological layers, corresponding to the ratio between their relative erodibilities or incision coefficients. Transverse drainage networks develop for uplift rates smaller than 0.8 mm yr^?1 and low incision ratios (?10 < R < 10). Intermediate drainage networks are obtained for uplift rates up to 2 mm yr^?1 and large incision ratios (R > 20). Parallel drainage networks and the formation of sedimentary basins occur for large values of incision ratio (R > 20) and uplift rates between 1 and 2 mm yr^?1. These results have implications for predicting the distribution of sediment depocenters in fold‐and‐thrust belts, which can be of direct economic interest for hydrocarbon exploration. They also put better constraints on the fluvial and geomorphic responses to fold growth induced by crustal‐scale tectonics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震空区法在大地震危险性初判中的应用——以青藏高原东南缘为例

以ARCGIS系列软件和VS 2010、SQL Server 2008为平台, 通过融合集成活动构造、地震地质和国家基础地理信息, 在初步建立的青藏高原东南缘活动构造空间数据库系统基础上, 利用地震围空区方法, 针对研究区进行区域大地震危险性中长期预测分析。通过地震信息分时间、分震级的整理与数据输出, 分析汇总了11例M≥7.0大震震例的地震空区活动图像以及围空区发震震级与围空区特征与参数。在总结出的经验公式基础上, 进一步利用1950-2012年的M≥5.0地震数据, 对该区地震围空区的发生与发育状况进行了初步分析与研究, 并对未来可能发生大震的发震位置及震级进行了综合分析。研究结果表明, 玉树-鲜水河-小江断裂带所围限的青藏高原东南缘地区存在6个比较突出的与区域重要的晚第四纪活动构造带或断裂带相对应的大地震围空区, 分别是错那-沃卡裂谷, 东喜马拉雅构造结, 安宁河-则木河断裂, 南汀河断裂-红河断裂, 畹町断裂-南汀河断裂, 澜沧-景洪断裂东段。这些围空区中主要活动断裂带的晚第四纪活动性与历史地震活动状况也都显示出未来几年至几十年存在发生大地震的危险性, 在今后的地震预报工作中应给予特别关注。应用实践表明, 通过活动构造数据库的建设可快速有效地实现对区域大地震围空区的动态分析、辨别及大地震危险性初判。      

东太平洋克拉里昂-克里帕顿断裂带WPC1101沉积柱样磁性地层及沉积环境

对采自东太平洋CC区西部的WPC1101重力活塞柱样进行了岩石磁学、古地磁极性地层及古生物地层年代学研究工作。等温剩余磁化强度（IRM）、磁滞回线和反向场退磁曲线测试结果表明,沉积物中的磁性矿物主要为磁铁矿,仅在柱状样底部存在少量赤铁矿/针铁矿。340~350 cm发育的埋藏结核层,标志着一处沉积间断的存在;60~336 cm发育上新世晚期的硅藻化石Cosinodiscus nodulifer,但古地磁极性地层缺失上新世-第四纪的2r反极性时;0~60 cm见第四纪标准化石Pseudoenuotia doliolus、Spongaster tetras,且顶部缺失1正极性时。综合对比古生物地层学、磁性地层学以及邻近区域地层学特征,认为该柱状样记录了从晚渐新世至第四纪的沉积历史,期间存在晚渐新世至早上新世、上新世晚期至第四纪早期及第四纪晚期3个时期的沉积间断,上述沉积间断的形成可能是南极底流的形成与增强、CCD界面抬升及海底侵蚀作用增强共同控制的结果。     

Impact Analysis of Air Gap Motion with Respect to Parameters of Mooring System for Floating Platform

In this paper, the impact analysis of air gap concerning the parameters of mooring system for the semi-submersible platform is conducted. It is challenging to simulate the wave, current and wind loads of a platform based on a model test simultaneously. Furthermore, the dynamic equivalence between the truncated and full-depth mooring system is still a tuff work. However, the wind and current loads can be tested accurately in wind tunnel model. Furthermore, the wave can be simulated accurately in wave tank test. The full-scale mooring system and the all environment loads can be simulated accurately by using the numerical model based on the model tests simultaneously. In this paper, the air gap response of a floating platform is calculated based on the results of tunnel test and wave tank. Meanwhile, full-scale mooring system, the wind, wave and current load can be considered simultaneously. In addition, a numerical model of the platform is tuned and validated by ANSYS AQWA according to the model test results. With the support of the tuned numerical model, seventeen simulation cases about the presented platform are considered to study the wave, wind, and current loads simultaneously. Then, the impact analysis studies of air gap motion regarding the length, elasticity, and type of the mooring line are performed in the time domain under the beam wave, head wave, and oblique wave conditions.     

Gap size effect on the tribological characteristics of the roller for deep-sea mining robot

To design the deep-sea mining robot, it is essential to analyze the tribological characteristics of its roller. In this study, we introduced the dynamic simulation model to analyze the tribological characteristics of the roller for deep-sea mining robot, considering the temperature, viscosity, viscous damping force, and gap size between the inner and outer rib seals. Effective viscosity changes with gap size in micro/nanoscale while the effective viscosity is equal to the kinematic viscosity in macroscale. For the stable operation of the roller, the effective viscosity must be less than the critical viscosity. As the gap size decreases, the effective viscosity increases while the critical viscosity decreases. This study shows that the gap size between the inner and outer rib seals of roller is the most dominant factor in designing the roller for deep-sea mining robot to use at relatively low temperatures that are found in the deep-sea environments.     

Characteristics of seismic activity before several large Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquakes

Two great earthquakes of MS8.5 and MS8.3 determined by the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) occurred successively on September 12 and 13, 2007 in the sea area to the south of Sumatra, which is another group of large earthquakes after MS8.7 event on December 26, 2004 and MS8.5 event on March 29, 2005. The