中国能源消费增长特征及影响因素分析

以煤炭消费为主、总量增长迅速、结构演进缓慢、使用效率低下使得中国目前能源消费调控问题面临诸多困难。本文使用多元回归模型和通径分析法确定了中国能源消费增长的主要因子及各因子的作用机理,结果发现：影响中国能源消费的主要因素按照影响程度依次为经济增长、城市化水平、对外贸易、人口总量、能源消费结构及能源利用效率,其中经济增长、人口规模扩大是直接推动中国能源消费增长的原因,而城市化水平和对外贸易规模则通过间接作用推动能源消费增长,能源消费结构的改善和能源利用效率的提高表面上看起来会引发能源消费增加,但是其间接影响都是负的,从而使得这两个因素整体上表现为减缓了能源消费增长。     

论山地灾害链

山地灾害链是具有灾变条件的山地环境,在致灾因素的作用下,一种山地灾害发生后,引起其他种类山地灾害也相继或滞后发生的灾变现象,通常由泥石流、山洪、滑坡、崩塌、冰崩、雪崩、堰塞湖和水土流失等灾种及其相关灾变现象构成,种类繁多,结构复杂,危害严重.根据山地灾害链的致灾因素不同将其划分成地球内营力作用、外营力作用和人为作用致灾3种类型,并进一步将其划分成8个亚类和128种灾害链形式.分析了山地灾害链的成因,认为山地灾害链是山地灾害的物质、能量和信息在特定条件下相互作用、相互渗透、相互传递和相互转化的结果.通过对山地害链的致灾因素、活动地域与结构特征分析和综合分析显示:山地灾害链的防治难度虽然很大,但除分布在高山和极高山区域、由冰雪崩塌和消融水引发的山地灾害链仅可预防,尚难治理外,其他山地灾害链都是可防、可治的.     

江苏县域经济要素关系及演化过程的分位数回归

针对经典回归模型的“两难问题”,引入非参数的分位数回归构建了要素关系模型,并以江苏县域经济为案例分析.结果表明:1)相比OLS回归,分位数回归对县域经济总体模拟效果和刻画演化特征能力更优;2)根据变量关系结构,将县域经济发展驱动机制划分为产业结构占优型、一般均衡驱动型和高效均衡驱动型;3)苏锡常各县市受因子波动影响而使得驱动机制发生改变导致演化过程的分位点跃迁,表现出发展路径选择具有多样化的特点.     

Study of the seismic response of a recycled aggregate concrete frame structure

Based on six-degree-of-freedom three-dimensional shaking table tests, the seismic response of a recycled aggregate concrete （RAC） frame was obtained. The analysis results indicate that the maximum story shear force and overturning moment reduce proportionally along the height of the model under the same earthquake wave. The story shear force, base shear coefficient and overturning moment of the structure increase progressively as the acceleration amplitude increases. The base shear coefficient is primarily controlled by the peak ground acceleration （PGA）. The relationships between the PGA and the shear coefficient as well as between the PGA and the dynamic amplification factor are obtained by mathematical fitting. The dynamic amplification factor decreases rapidly at the elastic-plastic stage, but decreases slowly with the development of the elastic-plasticity stage. The results show that the RAC frame structure has reasonable deformability when compared with natural aggregate concrete frame structures. The maximum inter-story drift ratios of the RAC frame model under frequent and rare intensity 8 test phases are 1/266 and 1/29, respectively, which are larger than the allowable value of 1/500 and 1/50 according to Chinese seismic design requirements. Nevertheless, the RAC frame structure does not collapse under base excitations with PGAs from 0.066 g up to 1.170 g.     

Hg bioaccumulation in marine copepods around hydrothermal vents and the adjacent marine environment in northeastern Taiwan

The Hg concentration in seawater and copepod samples collected from the area around hydrothermal vents at Kueishan Island and the adjacent marine environment in northeastern Taiwan were analyzed to study Hg bioaccumulation in copepods living in polluted and clean marine environments. The seawater collected from the hydrothermal vent area had an extremely high concentration of dissolved Hg, 50.6–256 ng l⁻¹. There was slightly higher Hg content in the copepods, 0.08–0.88 μg g⁻¹. The dissolved Hg concentration in the hydrothermal vent seawater was two to three orders of magnitude higher than that in the adjacent environment. The bioconcentration factor of the studied copepods ranged within 10³–10⁶, and showed higher dissolved concentration as the bioconcentration factor was lower. A substantial abundance, but with less copepod diversity was recorded in the seawater around the hydrothermal vent area. Temora turbinata was the species of opportunity under the hydrothermal vent influence.     

大地震前区域能量场的时间因子异常特征

本文采用自然正交函数展开方法,讨论了我国大陆发生的30次6.0级以上地震前的震中附近地区地震活动能量场的时间因子变化特征.结果表明,在大地震发生前,几个主要特征值所对应的典型场的时间因子均出现了明显的突升或突降变化,显示出与未来强地震有较好的对应关系.时间因子异常一般出现在震前1～3年,多数情况下小于2年,表现出异常的中短期特点;有些地震前异常出现时间小于3个月,显示出异常的短临性质.笔者认为,地震能量场时间因子可能是强地震前的一种有效的异常观测量和中短期异常指标.     

AVO analysis with partial stacking to detect gas anomalies in the GÜEPAJÉ-3D project

We applied analysis AVO with partial stacking to an onshore gas field in order to detect gas at the top of the Ciénaga de Oro formation (FCO), by using seismic gathers of the Güepajé-3D project. The technique was supported by petrophysical analysis of the Ayombe-1 well.The sensitivity of seismic response to changes in the saturating fluid was evaluated by fluid substitution technique in an interval of the Ayombe-1 well. As a result, a class I AVO anomaly at the top of the FCO was observed, even though the gas and water responses were similar. After applying AVO with partial stack technique at the top of FCO, AVO class I anomalies were observed in the Ayombe-1 and Güepajé-1 gas wells and none in the dry Güepajé-3 well. In spite of being reported with gas, the results in the Güepajé-2 well indicated any to an incipient class I anomaly related to a weak seismic response associated to gas.When the technique was applied to the seismic volume of the Güepajé-3D Project, a map of the direct gas indicator was obtained. The map shows a high correlation with the structural surface at top of FCO. Lithic factors such as compaction, cementation and carbonate overlaying the FCO and variable thickness of partial and full saturated layers, may cause anomalies in zones unlikely to contain gas.     

QVOA techniques for fracture characterization

New computational techniques of QVOA analysis (Quality factor Versus Offset and Azimuth) for fracture characterization are developed. The techniques are applied to synthetic surface data of reflection with noise.     

Hydrochemical characterization of an acid mine drainage-affected reservoir: the Sancho Reservoir,Huelva, southwest Spain

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to discover the relationship between variables in a water reservoir and the hydrochemical variations related to acid mine drainage (AMD), and to describe the horizontal stratification related to vertical salinity and variations in metals present in the region. The information obtained may be used for establishing risk evaluation criteria and to design future remediation strategies, which could be useful for new dams. The hydrochemical characterization was based on a sampling campaign performed in October 2011. A total of 28 samples, at 1-m-deep intervals, were obtained. The hydrogeochemical study of the polluted reservoir shows that the dilution effect is not sufficient to neutralize AMD contributions from mining activity. Sampling carried out from the surface water to the deepest points reveals stratification of the reservoir that allows it to be included in the group of monomictic and holomitic lakes.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor M.D. Fidelibus     

卧龙湖煤矿岩浆侵入特征及控制因素分析

岩浆侵入对煤矿生产影响极大,淮北煤田卧龙湖煤矿是受岩浆侵入较严重的矿井之一,其地质构造是控制岩浆侵入和岩浆岩展布的重要因素。卧龙湖煤矿自侏罗纪以来岩浆活动剧烈,发生了中性岩浆的侵入,多以岩床形式顺层侵入煤层顶底板及煤层中间。本文基于矿区钻孔数据揭露的岩浆岩分布情况,分析了结果表明卧龙湖矿区岩浆侵入规律,受煤层的形态、结构、理化性质以及产状的控制。