Achieving a low-carbon society

Climate change is perhaps the central challenge that faces humanity. If the concept of green growth is to be anything more than a mere rebranding of the concept of sustainability, then it must elucidate the relationship between economic activity and pollution and provide a more detailed economic account of it. The articles in this Special Issue focus on ways in which GHG emissions may be reduced while satisfying the increasing demand for energy: from global, technological or economic solutions, to sub-national, financial or regulatory ones. Although the wide disparity in income between the least and most wealthy makes it difficult to reach a consensus on the best way to achieve a low-carbon society, the scale and potential effects of climate change make it imperative that one is reached.     

长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估

基于长江流域142个气象站1986—2005年月降水和气温数据,评估由MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟能力,并采用EDCDF法对气温和降水预估数据进行偏差校正。结果表明：该区域气候模式能较好地模拟出长江流域平均气温的季节变化和空间分布特征,但模拟值无论在季节还是年际尺度上均高于观测值。对降水而言,该模式不能较好地模拟出降水的季节分布特征,导致春季、冬季及年模拟值高于观测值,而夏季和秋季模拟值低于观测值。总体而言,该模式对气温的模拟效果相对较好。偏差校正后的预估结果表明：在RCP4.5情景下,长江流域未来（2016—2035年）平均气温相对于基准期（1986—2005年）将升高0.66℃,年降水量将减少2.2%。     

Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach

Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.     

A digital earth platform for sustainability

ABSTRACT

Based on the experience of the International Society for Digital Earth (ISDE), this paper describes some challenges foreseen in order to develop a Digital Earth platform that can support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. The use of ready-to-use derived geospatial information is essential. Future Earth’s methodology of ‘co-design’ aims to bring together natural, social scientists and decision makers to plan and carry out research for sustainability. Sustainability implies transdisciplinary research, but in order for scientists of different disciplines to work together, they will need to be able to share, access and use common data. This is by far not simple! While the good will to share data might exist, the associated technological, ethical and privacy issues are difficult to solve. An adequate e-infrastructure will be required. ISDE could consider to use the SDGs is the basis to develop the desired Digital Earth platform. This paper, by no means, covers everything for a Digital Earth platform, it aims to trigger research discussions and to have a good view about a starting point.     

全息位置地图概念内涵及其关键技术初探

针对在泛在信息与大数据时代下,传统数字地图存在的局限性与面临的挑战,本文在原有概念基础上,拓展了全息位置地图概念内涵,即在泛在网环境下,以位置为纽带动态关联事物或事件的多时态(multitemporal)、多主题(multi-thematic)、多层次(multi-hierarchical)、多粒度(multi-granular)的信息,提供个性化的位置及与位置相关的智能服务平台;基于上述内涵,本文阐述了全息位置地图的重要组成与特征,并就泛在信息获取、语义位置关联和多维动态场景构建与表达等3个方面的关键技术进行了探讨。     

城市消防应急指挥地理信息服务系统开发研究

阐述了GIS(地理信息系统)的概念、特点以及GIS技术应用的范围,分析了城市消防附属设施资源与GIS技术的紧密相关特性。以城市消防部门应用需求为基础,提出了基于GIS技术的城市消防应急指挥地理信息系统结构设计、数据库设计、专题空间地理信息数据设计、功能设计等。最后结合哈尔滨市城市消防应急指挥地理信息系统开发试验,展示了部分项目开发内容。     

小尺度土地利用变化模型在岩溶山区的应用

针对当前土地利用模拟技术在岩溶地区应用较少的现状,该文提出了利用CLUE-S模型对岩溶地区土地利用变化进行模拟。此模型全面考虑自然和人文因子,通过迭代方法综合空间分析和非空间分析,较好地模拟小尺度范围内土地利用变化,具有综合性、开放性、空间性、竞争效率性等特点。研究结果表明:该模型不仅能够准确地反映未来研究区土地利用变化趋势,而且能较好地筛选影响未来土地利用变化主要影响因子,进行不同情景土地利用变化模拟,对岩溶地区土地利用规划和管理具有参考价值。     

军事地理学在未来战争中的发展问题

论述了未来战争的基本特征 ;以此为出发点 ,研究了军事地理学在未来战争中的地位、作用 ,概括出军事地理的发展特点     

基于3DCM的武警处突方案演示系统研究

随着三维城市模型(Three Dimensional City Model,3DCM)的蓬勃发展和武警部队建设信息化步伐的快速推进,利用3DCM技术辅助武警指挥员在处置突发性事件(简称处突)中精确地获取信息、直观快速地理解信息、高效地利用信息受到越来越多的重视。本文在论述3DCM在武警处突指挥信息系统具体应用的基础上,设计了3DCM支持下武警处突方案演示系统,内容包括系统组成、主要功能及技术实现途径。     

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish

Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.