Dynamics of a complex mass movement triggered by heavy rainfall: a case study from NW Turkey

Following a period of heavy precipitation, a large and complex mass movement, namely the Dagkoy landslide, occurred in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey on May 21, 1998. This paper describes the conditioning factors of the landslide and interprets the mass transport processes in terms of a movement scenario. Geology, geomorphology and vegetation cover were considered as the conditioning factors of the failure. Observations showed that the gently sloping (about 10°) area is mostly covered by dense forest trees at the crown where the motion initiated. Significant intersection of the collapsed slope with dip of the local marls seems to have contributed to the formation and geometry of the landslide. The distance from the crown down to the toe of the landslide measured more than 600 m, with about 0.6 km³ total earth material displaced. The landslide has both a block sliding characteristics in the upper portions and a debris flow/soil flow component around the margins of the sliding blocks in the middle parts and at the toe. The proposed scenario for the landslide reveals that the movement was initiated near crown as a result of the excess water content in the marls at the end of 3 days of heavy rainfall. The early perturbations (transverse cracks, ridges, etc.) lasted for 6–7 h, after which the central part of the zone started to move as a soil flow in which very large intact blocks were transported. Even though the movement was very rapid (1.2 m/min), there was no loss of life. However, the movement destroyed 38 houses, one mosque and a considerable amount of farmland.     

未来气候变暖情形下青藏高原多年冻土分布初探

基于未来温室气体中等排放情景下气候模式给出的气候预测结果的高分辨率降尺度分析结果,运用两种方法(年均温法和高程模型法)模拟了1980-1999,2030-2049和2080-2099年3个时段青藏高原多年冻土分布.结果表明,以年均地温-1℃作为多年冻土划分依据的年均温法模拟的目前(1980-1999年)高原多年冻土面积为127.99万km2,与世界数据中心给出的青藏高原现代多年冻土面积为129.12万km2的估算接近(误差率仅为0.86%);到本世纪中期(2030-2049年),高原多年冻土面积减少为87.26万km2,退化率达到31.82%;而到本世纪末(2080-2099年),高原多年冻土面积只有69.25万km2,较目前将退化45.89%.不同高度带的对比分析还发现,与高原及其邻近地区年均气温的升高一般随海拔高度而增加的趋势相反,未来高原多年冻土的退化率将随着海拔高度增加而降低.在全球变暖过程中的冻土退化,特别是高原东南部冻土向西北部的逐步退缩,对高原冻土区工程稳定性的影响应引起我们的足够重视.     

1957-2006年天山萨雷扎兹库玛拉克河流域冰川物质平衡变化及其对河流水资源的影响

天山南坡的萨雷扎兹-库玛拉克河流域在中国阿克苏河协合拉水文站以上面积为12816km2,发育有冰川3195.41km2,冰川覆盖率25%.根据1957—2006年流域站点观测的降水、气温及其径流资料,通过最大熵方法计算了流域冰川物质平衡的逐年变化.结果表明:流域冰川径流深约为895mm,全流域河川径流深为381.3mm,冰川融水占协合拉站控制流量的58.65%,冰川融水变化对流域水资源量的影响非常明显.1957—2006年平均年径流量为48.64×108m3,径流在1993年后急剧增加,1994—2006年的平均年径流量比1957—1993年的增加了10.56×108m3,即增加了23%.由于负物质平衡消耗了大量过去积累的冰川冰,冰川融化对河流额外补给.初步计算,在过去50a由于气温升高引起的冰川净消融额外补给河流的径流量达309.47×108m3,相当于每年径流增加达6.19×108m3,约为年径流量的13%.1957—1993年流域冰川消融对河流的额外净补给量为5.3×108m3,占河流总径流量的11%;1994—2006年流域冰川消融对河流的额外净补给量为8.8×108m3,占河流总径流量的18%.随着...     

基于CMIP6模式数据的1961—2100年青藏高原地表气温时空变化分析

基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的22个地球气候/系统模式模拟数据,分析了1961—2100年期间青藏高原年均地表气温在不同情景下的时空变化。结果表明,多模式集合平均的模拟结果优于大多数单个模式。由于共享社会经济路径（SSP）和辐射强迫的不同,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种情景下,2015—2100年间青藏高原年均地表气温的增温趋势分别为0.10 ℃·（10a）^-1、0.29 ℃·（10a）^-1、0.53 ℃·（10a）^-1和0.69 ℃·（10a）^-1,帕米尔高原、藏北高原中西部和巴颜喀拉山区为三个升温中心。相对于1995—2014年参考时段,到本世纪中期（2041—2060年）,青藏高原区域年均地表气温将分别增加1.37 ℃、1.72 ℃、1.98 ℃和2.30 ℃,而到本世纪末期（2081—2100年）,年均地表气温将分别增加1.42 ℃、2.65 ℃、4.28 ℃和5.38 ℃。与《巴黎协定》提出的到本世纪末全球平均气温升高不超过2 ℃目标相比,无论在哪种情景下,到本世纪中期时青藏高原年均地表气温相对于工业革命前均升高超过2 ℃,这会造成极大的气候生态环境问题。     

柴达木盆地油气资源战略调查成果与下步工作重点

柴达木盆地是中国七大含油气陆相盆地之一,油气资源总量丰富,勘探潜力巨大。柴达木盆地油气资源战略调查及评价项目研究工作开展2年以来,取得了重要的成果和认识:德令哈断陷内大面积分布中—下侏罗统烃源岩;盆地东部石炭系具有生烃能力;盆地北缘东段红山地区地震勘探采集到较好品质的资料;狮子沟地区天然地震勘探得到初步成果;综合应用地震、钻井等资料,确定了狮子沟构造的深层构造。下一步工作的重点是进一步加强盆地东部石炭系评价的力度,深化狮子沟、红山、德令哈等地区深层构造的研究及圈闭资源量评价工作。     

北京市居住郊区化分布特征及其影响因素

随着城市社会经济和交通的快速发展,北京居住郊区化日益加速。本文根据北京人口迁移、居住区开发建设,并选择四个大型新建居住区住户问卷调查,宏观和微观相结合对北京居住区空间分布特征、影响因素及发展趋势进行剖析。居住区空间以沿各环路圈层扩展、沿向外辐射主干道带状延伸及在现代产业集聚区周边扩展为基本特征。多数居住区规模较小,功能单一。居住区类型日益多样化,且分布趋向区域化。居住区空间分布是多种因素综合作用的结果,随着城市交通网络向外扩展及郊区产业的发展,未来北京居住郊区化仍是呈较快推进的趋势,根据北京可用地资源条件及未来交通网发展及产业布局,居住区发展重点主要在东郊和南郊五环路和六环路两侧,以及顺义、通州、亦庄、良乡等新城。     

Zhangmu and Gyirong ports under the threat of glacial lake outburst flood

The Himalayas are prone to glacial lake outburst floods, which can pose a severe threat to downstream villages and infrastructure. The Zhangmu and Gyirong land treaty ports are located on the China-Nepal border in the central Himalayas. In recent years, the expansion of glacial lakes has increased the threat of these two port regions. This article describes the results of mapping the glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km² in the Zhangmu and Gyirong port regions and analyzes their change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes and predicts the development of future glacial lakes. From 1988 to 2019, the glacial lakes in these port regions underwent "expansion", and moraine-dammed lakes show the most significant expansion trend. A total of eleven potentially dangerous glacial lakes are identified based on the assessment criteria and historical outburst events; most expanded by more than 150% from 1988 to 2019, with some by over 500%. The Cirenmaco, a moraine-dammed lake, is extremely prone to overtopping due to ice avalanches or the melting of dead ice in the dam. For other large lakes, such as the Jialongco, Gangxico and Galongco, ice avalanches may likely cause the lakes to burst besides self-destructive failure. The potential dangers of the Youmojianco glacial lakes, including lakes Nos. 9, 10 and 11, will increase in the future. In addition, the glacier-bed topography model predicts that 113 glacial lakes with a size larger than 0.01 km², a total area of 11.88 km² and a total volume of 6.37×10⁹ m³ will form in the study area by the end of the 21 century. Due to global warming, the glacial lakes in the Zhangmu and Gyirong port regions will continue to grow in the short term, and hence the risk of glacial lake outburst floods will increase.     

不同土地-气候情景下三江源地区产水和水土流失评价（英文）

探讨三江源地区产水和土壤保持对整个青藏高原地区、黄河流域、长江流域及澜沧江流域的生态稳定和人类社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。以4期(2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年)土地利用现状数据、降水及气温日值数据集、1∶1000000中国土壤数据库为研究的数据源,结合居民点、道路、河流等矢量数据及人口、经济栅格数据集和CCSM4通用气候模式预测成果数据,以三江源地区为案例区,基于FLUS模型和降尺度校正方法设计4种土地利用发展情景和2种气候变化情景,应用InVEST模型对研究区域2030年不同情景下的产水和土壤侵蚀进行定量模拟。结果表明:(1)不同土地利用发展情景下,草地仍然是三江源地区的优势土地利用类型,面积占比始终大于67%。(2)RCP4.5气候情景下,年产水量和土壤侵蚀量增加幅度分别超过7%和3.9%;RCP8.5气候情景下,年产水量和土壤侵蚀量的减少幅度分别超过3.3%和1.3%。(3)气候变化在产水量和土壤侵蚀量变化中起主导作用。气候变化对产水量变化的贡献率高达89.97%–98.00%,对土壤侵蚀模数变化的贡献率在60.49%–95.64%之间;而土地利用类型变化对区域产水量变化的贡献率仅在2.00%–10.03%之间,对土壤侵蚀模数变化的贡献率在4.36%–39.91%之间。因此,三江源地区土地开发策略应综合考虑区域发展、退耕还林还草的投入及产生的生态效益等多方面问题。     

综合湿度和温度影响的中国未来热浪预估

地面空气湿度直接影响人体驱散热负荷的效率,持续高温高湿天气将会严重影响人体健康。基于综合考虑温度和湿度协同作用的热胁迫指数——湿球黑球温度(WBGT)指数定义热浪,利用参考时期(1986—2005年)中国824个气象站点逐日平均气温和逐日相对湿度资料以及CMIP5多模式相应模拟数据,论文定量描述了未来时期(2076—2095年)不同排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)中国大陆地区可能遭遇的热浪事件的空间分布特征及其变化。研究结果表明：① 最有效的减排情景(RCP2.6)和高排放情景(RCP8.5)下中国大陆地区的平均热浪日数分别是参考时期的3.4倍和6.6倍,平均热浪强度(一年内所有热浪事件中日平均WBGT指数的最大值)也相对升高了1.6 ℃和4.9 ℃,未来时期RCP8.5情景下中国东部和南部地区的最高年均热浪强度甚至将达到40 ℃;② 虽然青藏高原地区的热浪强度等级低,但是未来时期热浪日数的增加幅度较为显著;③ 华南、长江中下游以及少数西南地区是综合考虑气温和湿度协同作用对人体热舒适的影响下,未来时期可能发生热浪最严重的地区,如果不考虑湿度要素的影响,那么将极有可能低估热浪在中国华南和东部等湿度较高地区的强度和影响。     

On the origin of transient effects in the solar neutrino experiment

Correlation studies of the pattern of time variation of the recorded solar neutrino flux monitored through the reaction Cl³⁷ → Ar³⁷ with various parameters of solar activity is suggestive of possible emission of a penetrating neutral particle from the sun influencing directly or indirectly the transformation Cl³⁷ → Ar³⁷ deep underground at the required rates. This possibility has to be invoked in view of the difficulties in generating the observed pattern of variations through a large modulatory mechanism involving the electron neutrino. The prediction that follows is the possible existence of a time varying component (diurnal) in the rate of some nuclear transmutations deep underground caused by an unknown neutral radiation having an interaction cross section with matter probably much larger than the canonical value of 10^-36 cm² per nucleon speculated upon by some authors in the WIMP scenario for the sun.