Projected Changes of Palmer Drought Severity Index under an RCP8.5 Scenario

The potential change of drought measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)is projected by using a coupled climate system model under a Representative Pathway 8.5(RCP8.5)scenario.The PDSI changes calculated by two potential evapotranspiration algorithms are compared.The algorithm of Thornthwaite equation overestimates the impact of surface temperature on evaporation and leads to an unrealistic increasing of drought frequency.The PM algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith equation is physically reasonably and necessary for climate change projections.The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,Spectral Version 2(FGOALS-s2)projects an increasing trend of drought during 2051–2100 in tropical and subtropical areas of North and South America,North Africa,South Europe,Southeast Asia,and the Australian continent.Both the moderate drought(PDSI–2)and extreme drought(PDSI–4)areas show statistically significant increasing trends under an RCP8.5 scenario.The uncertainty in the model projection is also discussed.     

High-resolution Projection Dataset of Agroclimatic Indicators over Central Asia

To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central Asia (CA), six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of three different global climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and their changes in the near-term future (2031–50) are assessed relative to the reference period (1986–2005). The quantile mapping (QM) method is applied to correct the model data before calculating the indicators. Results show the QM method largely reduces the biases in all the indicators. Growing season length (GSL, day), summer days (SU, day), warm spell duration index (WSDI, day), and tropical nights (TR, day) are projected to significantly increase over CA, and frost days (FD, day) are projected to decrease. However, changes in biologically effective degree days (BEDD, °C) are spatially heterogeneous. The high-resolution projection dataset of agroclimatic indicators over CA can serve as a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security in this region.     

Spatial and temporal change in landslide hazard by future climate change scenarios using probabilistic-based frequency ratio model

The aims of this study were to apply, verify and compare a frequency ratio model for landslide hazards, considering future climate change and using a geographic information system in Inje, Korea. Data for the future climate change scenario (A1B), topography, soil, forest, land cover and geology were collected, processed and compiled in a spatial database. The probability of landslides in the study area in target years in the future was then calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by a daily rainfall threshold. Landslide hazard maps were developed for the two study areas, and the frequency ratio for one area was applied to the other area as a cross-check of methodological validity. Verification results for the target years in the future were 82.32–84.69%. The study results, showing landslide hazards in future years, can be used to help develop landslide management plans.     

How do potential evapotranspiration formulas influence hydrological projections?

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the sensitivity of hydrological projections to the choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas on two natural sub-catchments, in Canada and Germany. Twenty-four equations, representing a large range of options, are applied for calibration over the whole observation time series and for future conditions. The modelling chain is composed of dynamically downscaled climatic projections and a 20-member (ensemble) hydrological model, along with a snow module. The roots of the sensitivity and its propagation within the hydrological chain are evaluated to show influences on climate change impact conclusions. Results show large differences between the 24 simulated potential evapotranspiration time series. However, these discrepancies only moderately affect the calibration efficiency of hydrological models as a result of adaptation of parameters. Choice of formula influences hydrological projections and climate change conclusions for both catchments in terms of simulated and projected values, and also in the magnitude of changes during important dynamic periods such as spring and autumn high flows and summer low flows. Spread of the hydrological response is lower for the combinational formulas than for temperature-based or radiation-based equations. All the results reveal the importance of testing a large spectrum of potential evapotranspiration formulas in a decision-making context, such as water resources management.     

基于情景的中国1951-2010年极端高温灾害的危险性分析(英文)

China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter’s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days). To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.     

COMMENTS ON “SPATIAL VARIATION OF HILLSLOPE PROFILES IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,KENTUCKY” BY EDMUND B. WOOOS

Book Reviewed in this article:

Main Street: Northeastern Oregon: The Founding and Development of Small Towns. Barbara Ruth Bailey.

Food Politics: The Regional Conflict. David N. Balaam and Michael J. Carey, eds.

The International Economy and Industrial Development: Trade and Investment in the Third World. R. Ballance, J. Ansari and H. Singer.

Neighborhoods in Urban America. Ronald H. Bayor, ed.

The English Heartland. By Robert Beckinsale and Monica Beckinsale.

Regional Dimensions of Industrial Policy. Michael E. Bell and Paul S. Lande, eds.

Tension Areas of the World. D. Gordon Bennett, ed.

Latin America: an Introductory Survey. B. W. Blouet and O. M. Blouet, eds.

Integration and Division: Geographical Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Problem. Frederick W. Boal and J. Neville H. Douglas, eds.

Energy and Land Use. Robert W. Burchell and David Listokin, eds.

Slopes and Weathering. Michael Clarke and John Small.

Alaska's Rural Development. Peter G. Cornwall and Gerald McBeath, eds.

The Politics of Park Design: A History of Urban Parks in America. Galen Cranz.

World Congress on Land Policy, 1980, Proceedings. Matthew Cullen and Sharon Woolery, eds.

Oregon Divided: A Regional Geography. Samuel N. Dicken and Emily F. Dicken.

Urban Food Marketing and Third World Rural Development. T. Scarlett Epstein.

South Africa: Spatial Frameworks for Development. T. J. D. Fair.

Institutions and Geographical Patterns. Robin Flowerdew, ed.

Industrialization of U.S. Agriculture, An Interpretive Atlas. Howard F. Gregor.

Planning Theory: Prospects for the 1980s. Patsy Healy, Glen McDougall and Michael J. Thomas, eds.

Neighborhood Mobilization: Redevelopment and Response. Jeffrey R. Henig.

The American Urban System: A Geographical Perspective. R. J. Johnston.

Climate, History and the Modern World. Hubert H. Lamb.

Climate and History: Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man. T. M. L. Wigley, M. J. Ingram and G. Farmer.

China: Railways and Agricultural Development, 1875–1935. Ernest P. Liang.

A Desirable Energy Future—A National Perspective. Robert S. Livingston, T. D. Anderson, T. M. Besmann, M. Olszewski, A. M. Perry, and C. D. West.

Topothesia: Essays Presented to T. S. Ó Máille. B. S. Mac Aodha, ed.

Transportation for the Poor: Research in Rural Mobility. Hal S. Maggied.

Land Uses in American Cities. Harold M. Mayer and Charles R. Haves.

Industrial Organisation and Location. Philip McDermott and Michael Taylor.

Human Adaptability: an Introduction to Ecological Anthropology. Emilio F. Moran.

Regional Analysis and the New International Division of Labor. Frank Moulaert and Patricia W. Salinas, eds.

The Nuclear War Atlas. Victoriaville, Quebec, Canada:

Urbanization and Environmental Quality. Isao Orishimo.

The Garden of Eden: The Botanic Garden and the Re-Creation of Paradise. John Prest.

Earthfire, The Eruption of Mount St. Helens. Charles Rosenfeld and Robert Cooke.

Contest for the South China Sea. Marwyn S. Samuels.

The Future of the Wetlands: Assessing Visual-Cultural Values. Richard C. Smardon, ed.

Tucson: the Life and Times of An American City. C. L. Sonnichsen.

The Geography of Multinationals. Michael Taylor and Nigel Thrift, eds.

Impact of Marine Pollution on Society. Virginia Tippie and Dana Kester.

Reviving the Industrial City: the Politics of Urban Renewal in Lyon and Birmingham. Jerry A. Webman.

Andean Reflections: Letters from Carl O. Sauer While on a South American Trip under a Grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, 1942. Robert C. West, ed.

Cartographic Drawing with Computers. P. Yoeli.     

Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP

Journal of Geographical Sciences - How to simulate land-cover change, driven by climate change and human activity, is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field...     

Kirchhoff型偏移理论的研究历史、研究现状与发展趋势展望——与光学绕射理论的类比、若干新结果、新认识以及若干有待于解决的问题

对Kirchhoff型偏移理论的研究历史、研究现状以及在今后一段时间内的发展趋势进行了简要的回顾和评述,并对加权函数、偏移孔径、子波拉伸、振幅畸变、垂向与横向分辨率等问题进行了相对详尽的讨论。还对若干有待于解决的问题进行了探讨,并对笔者在近几年内所取得的一些与Kirchhoff型偏移理论有关的新认识和新结果进行了介绍。为了充分地顾及反射地震成像和光学成像之间的渊源关系,采用了一种新的讨论方式,即首先对Kirchhoff绕射理论的主要内容进行概略的回顾,然后再通过类比的方式引入Kirchhoff型偏移成像的基本概念和基本方程。在过去的几十年中,在Kirchhoff型偏移理论研究方面已经取得了重大进展,一个完整的理论体系已经形成。尽管如此,仍有一些遗留的或新出现的理论问题有待于解决,例如加权等时面分布叠加偏移的输出场分析和模型空间中的最优偏移孔径等等。由于Kirchhoff型偏移理论的研究对象是加权绕射叠加而不是加权等时面分布,也由于GPU/CPU协同计算技术的出现已经使得加权绕射叠加的计算量问题不再形成瓶颈,所以在今后的发展中Kirchhoff型偏移在理论和实践上将达到统一,即将在实现上从加权等时面分布回归到加权绕射叠加。与此同时,在今后一个时期内的研究重点将会与Green函数的数学表述、局部相关反射信号（locally coherent events）的表示和处理、广义加权绕射叠加以及在模型空间中定义的最优偏移孔径等问题有关。     

气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析

基于国产HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System)模型,以青海湟水流域为研究区域,利用1986-2000年33个雨量站和8个气象站的逐日降水和气温数据,对其径流变化进行模拟;选取流域内6个水文站同期的实测径流数据,进行参数率定及验证。结果表明:HIMS模型日、月率定及验证结果良好,在湟水流域具有良好的适用性。在此基础之上,分析了湟水流域1961-2010年降水及气温的变化趋势,并对不同气候变化情景下的水文响应(径流量)进行模拟分析。结果显示气候变化对湟水流域径流量变化趋势影响显著,随气温升高和降水量的减少,径流量呈明显的减少趋势,反之,呈增加趋势。     

武威绿洲城镇化的生态效应情景分析

绿洲是人地关系地域系统研究的典型地区,城镇化是影响绿洲生态系统稳定性的重要人类活动之一,选择合理的城镇化模式对绿洲地区可持续发展至关重要。本文以石羊河流域武威绿洲为研究区,采用情景分析方法,对该地区常规城镇化和快速集约型城镇化两种情景的生态效应展开系统动力学模拟。结果表明：在快速集约型城镇化情景下,到2025年,武威绿洲年农业用水将控制在6×108 m3以内,相比目前水平可节约3×108～4×108 m3,生产和生活对生态用水的占用也将相应减少,年总用水量将控制在8×108 m3以内,水资源供需矛盾可得到缓解,下游民勤绿洲生态退化可得到有效控制;而在常规城镇化情景下,水供需矛盾将继续恶化,无法遏制石羊河下游生态退化趋势。因此,快速集约型城镇化模式是维持武威绿洲及石羊河流域生态系统稳定性的可取城镇化模式之一。