2050年前气候变暖冰川萎缩对水资源影响情景预估

根据有不确定性的综合预测 ,到 2 0 5 0年左右青藏高原温度可比 2 0世纪末升高 2 .5℃左右 ,其导致冰川强烈消融的夏季升温为 1.4℃ ,将使平衡线上升 10 0m以上 .冰舌区消融冰量超过积累区冰运动来的冰量 ,冰川出现变薄后退 ,初期以变薄为主融水量增加 ,后期冰川面积大幅度减少 ,融水量衰退 ,至冰川消亡而停止 .考虑冰川大小 ,冰川类型响应气候变暖的敏感性有重大差别 ,应用新编中国冰川目录的统计数据 ,选择若干区域 ,预估 2 0 5 0年前冰川萎缩对水资源影响情景 .祁连山北麓河西地区 ,天山北麓准噶尔盆地南缘 ,天山南麓吐鲁番 哈密盆地的多数出山河流的冰川 ,以面积小于 2km2 者占绝对优势 ,对气候变暖最为敏感 ,衰退迅速 ,本世纪初期出现融水量高峰 ,中期融水量减少 ,对每条河流的影响以 10 6～ 10 7m3 ·a-1计 .少数流域如疏勒河、玛纳斯河等 ,冰川融水量占河川径流 1/ 3以上 ,有若干 5～ 30km2 左右中等规模冰川存在 ,预期至本世纪中期才出现融水高峰 ,融水增加值以 10 8m3 ·a-1计 .塔里木盆地周围高山冰川总面积达 2 2 0 0 9km2 ,有面积超过 10 0km2 、冰舌为厚表覆盖的大冰川 2 2条 ,退缩缓慢 ,冰川融水量在叶尔羌河、玉龙喀什河与阿克苏河等占 5 0 %～ 80 % .现在塔里木河干流主要靠天山西南部     

Simulating the interactions between the water and the socio-economic system in a stressed endorheic basin

ABSTRACT

The endorheic basin of Zayandehrud in Iran suffers from environmental problems, social tensions, and economic instability. Lack of understanding how the water system and the socio-economic system interact may explain these challenges. A system dynamics model, being a holistic simulation tool, was developed for the Zayandehrud basin and used to evaluate several policy scenarios. The indices of employment, gross regional product, the volume of groundwater and surface water stored, flow into the basin’s end lake, and the water flow in the river were used to evaluate the scenarios. The findings demonstrate that focusing on supply-based activities or water demand management cannot solely improve the condition of the Zayandehrud basin. It is required to reconsider the development policies of the region in a broader context. Reducing the irrigated area by 15% and developing new industries up to a certain limit may make the combined water and socio-economic system sustainable.     

地球动力学与盆地层序及油气系统分析

油气盆地、沉积层序与油气系统的研究属于不同层次的油气资源评价的基础研究。各类原型盆地的形成与地球动力学环境有关,并可简化为裂谷盆地、前陆盆地、走滑盆地和克拉通盆地等。沉积层序驱动机制由地球动力学的不同环境所决定,沉积层序可分类为裂谷盆地层序、前陆盆地层序和走滑盆地层序。油气系统在不同地球动力学环境下形成裂谷油气系统、台地油气系统和造山油气系统。中国许多大型盆地属于大型叠合盆地,并构成复合油气系统。     

Estimating rupture scenario likelihood based on dynamic rupture simulations: the example of the segmented Middle Durance fault, southeastern France

The Middle Durance fault system, southeastern France, is a slow active fault that produced moderate-size historical seismic events and shows evidence of at least one   M _w ≳ 6.5  event in the last 29 000 yr. Based on dynamic rupture simulation, we propose earthquake scenarios that are constrained by knowledge of both the tectonic stress field and of the 3-D geometry of the Durance fault system. We simulate dynamic rupture interaction among several fault segmentations of different strikes, dips and rakes, using a 3-D boundary integral equation method. 50 combinations of reasonable stress field orientations, stress field amplitudes and hypocentre locations are tested. The probability of different rupture evolutions is then computed. Each segment ruptures mainly as a single event (44 per cent of the 50 simulations test in this paper). However, the probability that an event triggers simultaneously along three segments is high (26 per cent), leading to a potential rupture length of 45 km. Finally, 2 per cent of the simulations occur along four adjacent segments, producing the greatest total rupture length of 55 km. The simulation results show that the southernmost segment is most easily ruptured (40 per cent), because of its favourable orientation with respect to the tectonic stress and of its favourable location for interaction with the other segments. South-bound unilateral propagation is slightly preferable (41 per cent), compared to north-bound unilateral and bilateral propagation modes. Although, these rupture scenarios cannot be directly translated into probabilities of occurrence, they do provide a better insight as to which rupture scenarios are more likely, an important element to better estimate near-field strong ground motion and seismic hazard.     

Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings

The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper.     

南秦岭金龙山金矿远景资源量预测

金龙山矿床已具大型规模,但由于认识上的分歧,对矿区勘查前景存在不同看法.齐波夫定律在预测金矿资源方面效果不错,利用齐波夫定律对金龙山矿床储量进行分析,其远景预测量为90.473 t,加上现有的储量可达到特大型规模.2005年仅丘岭矿段就提交334资源量23.5 t,从而证实了预测的可信性.随着深部勘探的进行,金龙山金矿的扩矿潜力必将进一步展现出来.     

Evaluating the risk of climate change to nuclear waste disposal

A hierarchy of models is being developed to represent the changes in climate that could occur in the next 10,000 years at proposed nuclear waste repository sites in the U.S. Three levels of modeling of the global aspects of climate change are included. At the broadest level a multitude of theoretical representations are being considered, most based upon the Milankovitch theory. A set of at least 150 situations will be examined, and those of concern for site stability will be screened for more thorough analysis at the next level of detail. The screening criteria include estimation of the probability of the event; the level of probability which must be considered (0.0001) requires use of the most detailed paleoclimatic records available. Uncertainty in the results will be evaluated by comparison of model reconstructions to the paleoclimatic record and by Monte Carlo analyses.This paper was presented at Emerging Concept, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

隐伏活动构造探测研究的若干问题讨论

文中通过国内外隐伏活动构造研究发展历史回顾与最新研究动态的分析 ,提出了当前隐伏活动构造在浅部精细特征研究、深浅构造关系研究和高新技术手段运用等方面存在的不足和问题。为适应隐伏活动构造研究不断发展的需要 ,作者认为 ,以浅层物探、系列钻探和新年代研究为支点 ,开展多学科手段的综合定量研究是深化这一研究的基础 ,而进行隐伏活动构造的科学分类、准确定位和最新一期活动性研究是当前研究的主要目标     

京珠高速公路粤境北段路堑高边坡失稳防治研究

京珠高速公路粤境北段地形条件十分复杂，被世界银行专家称为“中国最具挑战性的公路项目”。文章介绍了针对此项目开展的路堑高边坡失稳防治研究情况，着重介绍了该项研究的技术路线，以及为预防路堑高边坡失稳开展的系列研究。即：①路堑高边坡工程地质条件；②按常规所做原设计的堑坡稳定性；③路堑高边坡设计方案；④路堑高边坡施工工艺；⑤动态监测；⑥动态设计。研究与设计施工密切配合，及时将研究成果应用到工程实践中，取得很好的效果。