作物病虫害高光谱遥感进展与展望

作物病虫害作为影响农作物品质、产量及威胁粮食安全的主要因素,仅依靠人工田间调查对其进行监测已不能满足当下农业生产精准高效的需求。高光谱遥感作为能够获取地表物体连续波谱信息的遥感技术,已经成为当下作物病虫害监测识别的重要手段。本文对作物病虫害高光谱遥感监测识别的研究进展进行综述,通过对该领域发表文献的统计以及对主要机构、团队、数据源的分析,明确了病虫害高光谱遥感监测的研究热点和趋势;在此基础上,分析高光谱技术及其作物病虫害的监测识别机理,从病虫害胁迫探测、分类识别、危害严重度定量分析及早期检测四个方面综述相关技术及研究现状;通过探讨当下高光谱遥感病虫害监测识别面临的挑战,提出作物病虫害标准图谱库的建立、星载高光谱传感器的完善以及星空地一体化监测平台的搭建是当前作物病虫害高光谱遥感监测识别技 术落到实处的关键,也是未来发展的重点方向。     

城市公共自行车自愿碳减排机制初探——以北京市为例

公共自行车系统是待开发的交通自愿碳减排项目。本文采用CCER方法学中的“快速公交项目”,计算北京市2012年公共自行车系统自愿碳减排量,并估算收益。结果显示：北京市2012年公共自行车自愿碳减排量为43.95 t CO₂,出售可获得1538元的收益。同时估算得到北京市2015年公共自行车碳减排量为6874.5 t CO₂,出售可获得约24万的收益。因此,北京等交通需求膨胀的特大型城市,随着公共自行车系统的持续壮大发展,公共自行车运营企业的经济效益有望通过碳交易实现较大提升空间。     

Sustainable shellfish aquaculture in Saldanha Bay,South Africa

The carrying capacity for bivalve shellfish culture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, was analysed through the application of the well-tested EcoWin ecological model, in order to simulate key ecosystem variables. The model was set up using: (i) oceanographic and water-quality data collected from Saldanha Bay, and (ii) culture-practice information provided by local shellfish farmers. EcoWin successfully reproduced key ecological processes, simulating an annual mean phytoplankton biomass of 7.5 µg Chl a l^–1 and an annual harvested shellfish biomass of about 3 000 tonnes (t) y^–1, in good agreement with reported yield. The maximum annual carrying capacity of Small Bay was estimated as 20 000 t live weight (LW) of oysters Crassostrea gigas, or alternatively 5 100 t LW of mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis, and for Big Bay as 100 000 t LW of oysters. Two production scenarios were investigated for Small Bay: a production of 4 000 t LW y^–1 of mussels, and the most profitable scenario for oysters of 19 700 t LW y^–1. The main conclusions of this work are: (i) in 2015–2016, both Small Bay and Big Bay were below their maximum production capacity; (ii) the current production of shellfish potentially removes 85% of the human nitrogen inputs; (iii) a maximum-production scenario in both Big Bay and Small Bay would result in phytoplankton depletion in the farmed area; (iv) increasing the production intensity in Big Bay would probably impact the existing cultures in Small Bay; and (v) the production in Small Bay could be increased, resulting in higher income for farmers.     

气候变化情景下东南印度洋亚南极模态水的演变趋势研究

基于参与第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的8个地球系统耦合模式所输出的历史模拟结果,本文通过与观测对比,评估了CMIP6模式对东南印度洋亚南极模态水的模拟能力,并预估了在中等强迫情景和高强迫情景下,该模态水潜沉率、体积及性质的变化趋势。结果表明：与Argo观测相比,CMIP6模式中南印度洋混合层偏深且上层海洋的位势密度偏小,因此其模拟的东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率偏大而位势密度偏小。不同CMIP6模式之间模拟的东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉区存在差异,混合层侧向输入是导致这一差异的主要原因。此外,在历史模拟和两种情景试验中,东南印度洋亚南极模态水均呈现出潜沉率和体积减小、温度升高、盐度和密度降低的趋势。其中,在高强迫情景下,变化趋势最大,中等强迫情景次之,历史模拟中的变化趋势最小。这表明,辐射强迫越强,东南印度洋海表温度升高和淡水输入增加的趋势越大,导致混合层变浅及其南北梯度减小的趋势越快,东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率、体积和性质变化的趋势也随之增大。     

5个全球气候模式对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟与预估

利用5个全球气候模式和中国东北地区162个站点地面温度实测资料,评估全球气候模式和多模式集合平均对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟能力,并对SRES B1、A1B和A2排放情景下,中国东北地区未来地面温度变化进行预估。结果表明：全球气候模式能够较好地再现了东北地区地面温度的年变化和空间分布特征,但存在系统性冷偏差,模式对夏季地面温度模拟偏低1.16 ℃,优于冬季。预估结果表明,3种排放情景下21世纪中期和末期东北地区地面温度均将升高,末期增幅高于中期,冬季增幅高于其他季节, SRES A2排放情景下增幅最大,B1排放情景下最小;增温幅度自南向北逐渐增大,增温最显著地区位于黑龙江小兴安岭;21世纪末期3种情景下中国东北地区年平均地面温度将分别升高2.39 ℃(SRES B1)、3.62 ℃(SRES A1B)和4.43 ℃(SRES A2)。     

基于FLUS的长春市土地利用动态变化与预测分析

研究城乡土地利用变化规律与驱动机制,有利于实现区域土地资源可持续发展。本文以长春市为例,以监督分类与人工解译相结合的方式对1997、2007和2017年Landsat卫星影像进行分类,总体精度分别为93.06%,90.70%和94.12%。1997-2017年,草地、耕地和其他土地面积分别减少354.74、922.11和55.35 km²,建设用地、水域和林地面积分别增加1 154.14、70.38和107.54 km²,整体表现为建设用地向周边扩张,侵占其他用地类型面积。利用未来土地利用模拟（future land use simulation,FLUS）模型,以2007年分类数据为基础,结合地形、交通区位和社会经济等土地利用变化驱动因子,仿真2017年土地利用格局,仿真结果与真实情况吻合较好,仿真精度达85.10%,Kappa系数为0.821 2,验证了模型和驱动因子精度可靠,符合土地利用变化趋势。以此模型因子预测2027年土地利用格局,结果表明：在城镇周围,建设用地将持续侵占耕地、林地、草地和其他土地的面积,但趋势减缓,同时林地面积和水域面积增加。     

山东省胶南市七宝山银铅多金属矿地质特征及找矿前景

胶南市七宝山地区发现了以银铅为主的多金属矿 ,矿石中有益组分以银铅为主 ,伴生有萤石、铜及少量金 ,其找矿标志是硅化构造破碎带、石英脉、萤石石英脉等。找矿方向应集中于山周断裂两侧和燕山晚期伟德山超单元之中。该区具有较好的找矿前景     

爆发性气旋的前世今生

温带气旋是中纬度地区每日天气舞台上最重要的“演员”.在秋冬季节的中高纬度海洋上有一类快速发展的温带气旋——“爆发性气旋”,尚未受到公众的广泛关注.文章围绕这一主题,首先回顾了温带气旋研究的历史,介绍了“爆发性气旋”这一术语产生的渊源,并对多位学者给出的爆发性气旋定义进行了系统梳理,重点介绍了一个考虑风速影响的、修正的爆...     

Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics

Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.