A new Likelihood Ratio for supervised classification of fully polarimetric SAR data: An application for sea ice type mapping

One of the potential applications of polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data is the classification of land cover, such as forest canopies, vegetation, sea ice types, and urban areas. In contrast to single or dual polarized SAR systems, full polarimetric SAR systems provide more information about the physical and geometrical properties of the imaged area. This paper proposes a new Bayes risk function which can be minimized to obtain a Likelihood Ratio (LR) for the supervised classification of polarimetric SAR data. The derived Bayes risk function is based on the complex Wishart distribution. Furthermore, a new spatial criterion is incorporated with the LR classification process to produce more homogeneous classes. The application for Arctic sea ice mapping shows that the LR and the proposed spatial criterion are able to provide promising classification results. Comparison with classification results based on the Wishart classifier, the Wishart Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic (WLRTS) proposed by Conradsen et al. (2003) and the Expectation Maximization with Probabilistic Label Relaxation (EMPLR) algorithm are presented. High overall classification accuracy of selected study areas which reaches 97.8% using the LR is obtained. Combining the derived spatial criterion with the LR can improve the overall classification accuracy to reach 99.9%. In this study, fully polarimetric C-band RADARSAT-2 data collected over Franklin Bay, Canadian Arctic, is used.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

滑坡易发性危险性风险评价例析

从易发性、危险性、风险的概念入手,依据国际上流行和通用的滑坡风险评价与管理理论,分析了易发性评价的内容,包括易发性评价到危险性评价需要增加的评价要素,以及从危险性评价到风险评价需要增加的评价要素,阐明了这三种评价之间的联系和区别。并通过延安宝塔区的滑坡易发性、危险性和风险的评价与区划具体说明三者的做法和结果。     

“一带一路”沿线国家矿业投资风险评价——基于改进的灰色关联分析模型

随着共建“一带一路”倡议的推进,中国对沿线国家矿业投资稳步增长。由于部分国家特殊的政治、经济、文化背景,使得投资活动常面临众多风险,因此,有必要对矿业投资风险进行科学评价,以提高风险抵御能力。以国际投资风险一体化分析框架为基础,提出从社会一般环境与行业一般环境2个维度展开的矿业投资风险评价“四层次”指标体系,然后运用灰色系统理论的重要工具灰色关联分析对指标体系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,政局稳定程度是影响矿业投资风险的首要因素,其次为外交关系情况、基础设施建设、矿产资源禀赋、对外单项投资和国民教育水平;以国别进行风险评价的研究结果表明,越南、印度尼西亚等为低风险国家,哈萨克斯坦、波兰等为中风险国家,巴基斯坦、伊朗等为高风险国家。     

矿产勘查与评估的统计地球化学方法

统计地球化学在矿产勘查与评估中的应用，主要包括采术规则，临界品位计算，资源量／储量公式，边界品位确定，网度判别，矿床经济分类以及矿床开发风险等内容。     

金沙江水电站工程区典型单体滑坡风险评价探讨

在对金沙江流域内的部分大型水电站工程区内的滑坡分析基础上,以两个滑坡为例,针对水电站工程区讨论了单体滑坡的风险评价方法。选取滑坡稳定性,规模和可能造成的涌浪高度3个指标进行危险性评价;并且定性地将大坝的易损性确定为高、中、低三个等级。在此基础上,对研究区的牛滚函滑坡和东岳庙滑坡进行了危险性分析和易损性评价,得出这两个单体滑坡的风险分析结果：牛滚函滑坡为低度风险,东岳庙滑坡为中度风险。研究成果为水电站工程区滑坡减灾防灾与风险管理提供了科学依据。     

山东及周边地块间近期运动状态分析

为研究山东所在块体及周边地块间的地壳相对运动状态,利用2001年以来中国地壳运动观测网络以及2007年以来山东GPS观测网的观测结果,使用K-L最佳直线拟合和滑动傅里叶法得到基线变化年周期,以此对处于不同地块的GPS基准站间基线变化趋势进行分析,得出近期山东内部及周边地块间的地壳运动特征。并利用GPS资料分析了2011年3月11日日本9.0级强震对山东地区的影响。     

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

落物撞击作用下海底管道风险评估

海洋平台吊机起吊货物频繁,落物事故偶有发生,对平台附近的海底管道造成危害。在DNV推荐方法的基础上,改进了碰撞概率的计算方法。运用概率统计的方法以及失效概率理论编制Matlab程序,充分考虑各因素不确定性基础上,对落物撞击作用下海底管道进行了风险评估及敏感性分析。为减少落物对海底管线的损伤,及如何配置合理的防护措施提供了科学依据。     

莱州湾沉积物粒度与重金属分布特征

作者依据2019年8月份莱州湾海洋沉积物调查资料,分析了该海域表层沉积物粒径组成、重金属时空分布特征并评价了其生态风险。结果显示,莱州湾沉积物分为砂质粉砂、粉砂、粉砂质砂和砂4种类型,以砂质粉砂为主,其次为粉砂与粉砂质砂,再次为砂,中值粒径平均58.956μm;表层沉积物中Cr、Zn、Pb、Cu、As、Cd、Hg和TOC平均含量分别为57.6、52.6、18.7、15.3、9.14、0.130、0.0234 mg/kg和0.222%;由于河流排海物质和莱州湾内潮流运动,导致Cu、Pb、Zn、As、Cr和Cd基本呈现中部海域含量较高,西部海域高于东部海域的特征,东南部海域Cd、Hg与矿产资源的开发相关;14.3%的站位综合潜在生态风险属于中生态风险,Cd对综合潜在生态风险指数的贡献率最高,为主要潜在生态风险因子;研究区域中重金属Cu、Zn含量的分布与沉积物粒径和有机碳的含量密切相关。