Implementing quality control on a random number stream to improve a stochastic weather generator

For decades, stochastic modellers have used computerized random number generators to produce random numeric sequences fitting a specified statistical distribution. Unfortunately, none of the random number generators we tested satisfactorily produced the target distribution. The result is generated distributions whose mean even diverges from the mean used to generate them, regardless of the length of run. Non‐uniform distributions from short sequences of random numbers are a major problem in stochastic climate generation, because truly uniform distributions are required to produce the intended climate parameter distributions. In order to ensure generation of a representative climate with the stochastic weather generator CLIGEN within a 30‐year run, we tested the climate output resulting from various random number generators. The resulting distributions of climate parameters showed significant departures from the target distributions in all cases. We traced this failure back to the uniform random number generators themselves. This paper proposes a quality control approach to select only those numbers that conform to the expected distribution being retained for subsequent use. The approach is based on goodness‐of‐fit analysis applied to the random numbers generated. Normally distributed deviates are further tested with confidence interval tests on their means and standard deviations. The positive effect of the new approach on the climate characteristics generated and the subsequent deterministic process‐based hydrology and soil erosion modelling are illustrated for four climatologically diverse sites. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

With the influence of global warming,the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s.Although El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability,its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed,and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened.This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China.On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer,as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases,i.e.before and after the significant global warming(1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012,respectively),we concluded that(1)Under different inter-decadal backgrounds,the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency,but in the latter phase of the global warming,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)was on the strong side,the position of which was in the south,and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active,while the polar vortex extended to the south,and meridional circulation intensified.This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III,and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I,thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China.(2)In the former phase,the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences.The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)was great,and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective.In the latter phase,this identification ability decreased,while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American(PNA)teleconnection pattern increased,and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased.Based on the new inter-decadal climate background,this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian(EU)teleconnection indexes.The fitting effect was satisfying,though it is necessary to be further tested.     

琼东南盆地崖南区少井岩性建模技术研究

崖南区是琼东南盆地已证实的富生烃区,几口已钻井都已证实主要目的层段为高压地层,利用常规的压力预测方法预测新钻井的压力会出现较大的误差.若是从区域应力角度入手预测新钻井的压力误差会减小,其预测基础为岩性模型.对于已开发的油气田,利通常规的岩性建模方法可以建立较好的岩性模型;但是对于崖南区而言,由于地震资料品质不是很好,同时本区钻井较少,很难通过常规的建模方法建立岩性模型,所以本区研究重点是如何利用少井建立岩性模型.通过研究认为若完成崖南区的岩性建模必须改进建模流程,改进的岩性建模流程克服了常规岩性建模在崖南区存在的问题,主要有三方面的优点:1)不采用相模型约束岩性建模,解决了由于研究区相模型划相较粗很难约束岩性模型建立的问题;2)属性模型控制岩性模型的横向变化趋势,解决了几种常规属性与岩性间没有较好关系的问题;3)利用泥质含量结合岩性资料建立岩性体,得到的岩性模型比较接近实际情况.C井钻前完成岩性模型建立,利用C井井点位置提取岩性数据与本井钻后录井岩性数据对比,发现预测岩性与录井岩性的吻合程度很高,证明改进的岩性建模思路在崖南少井区可用.     

Identifying rock blocks based on hierarchical rock-mass structure model

Rock-masses are divided into many closed blocks by deterministic and stochastic discontinuities and engineering interfaces in complex rock-mass engineering. Determining the sizes, shapes, and adjacent relations of blocks is important for stability analysis of fractured rock masses. Here we propose an algorithm for identifying spatial blocks based on a hierarchical 3D Rock-mass Structure Model (RSM). First, a model is built composed of deterministic discontinuities, engineering interfaces, and the earth’s su...     

Effects of Earth's curvature and radial heterogeneity in dislocation studies:Case studies of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake

Recently,effects of Earth's curvature and radial heterogeneity on coseismic deformations are often investigated based on the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.However,such effects are strongly related to earthquake types.As a low dip angle event,the 2004 Sumatra earthquake is not a good seismic case for such a topic since the effects for moderate dip angle events are much bigger.In this study,the half-space and spherical dislocation theories are used,respectively,to calculate coseismic displacements caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.Effects of Earth's curvature and stratification are investigated through the discrepancies of results calculated using the two dislocation theories.Results show that the effects of Earth's curvature and stratification for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are much larger than those for the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.Ignoring the effects will cause errors up to 100%-200% in far field displacements for a moderate dip angle event like the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Such great effects are much bigger than those conclusions of previous studies.Besides,comparison with observations verifies that spherical dislocation theories yield better results than half-space ones in far fields.     

华南花岗岩物源成因特征与陆壳演化

华南不同时代的花岗岩按物质来源及成因可划分为:幔源(分异)系列:幔-壳混源(同熔)系列;壳源改造(重熔)系列和幔-壳混源碱性系列等四个不同的系列,简要阐述了划分四类系列的岩石学、地球化学的依据。侧重根据Sm-Nd、Rb-Sr同位素成分,以二元混合模型计算了花岗岩源区物质组成中,上壳和亏损地幔组份各占的比例。在此基础上探讨了不同物源成因系列花岗岩形成与华南陆壳演化的内在联系:东安、雪峰旋回褶皱系阶段花岗岩物源成因类型比较多样,有幔源(分异)系列、不成熟壳源、成熟壳源改造(重熔)系列等;加里东,海西期以陆壳改造(重熔)系列为主;印支、燕山期活化区(地洼)阶段,在地幔活化激发下,中国东部陆缘形成幔—壳混源(同熔)系列花岗岩和相应的火山岩;但沿内部断裂带,在壳下地幔热传输及构造作用下引起陆壳重熔,形成属于壳源改造(重熔)系列花岗岩。同位素的研究证明了:地洼阶段的构造-岩浆活动主要动力是来自壳下地幔的活化。     

安徽五河地区河口铅金矿成矿地质条件及成矿模式

矿床地质特征及成矿条件分析是同地区寻找同类矿床的重要手段。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,对安徽五河河口铅金矿的矿床地质特征、成矿条件、控矿因素和成矿模式进行详细讨论,认为太古宇变质基底既是该矿床的赋矿层位,又是原始矿源岩系;主要控矿因素为断裂构造,尤其是北北东—北东向和南北向断裂。推测其成矿模式为地壳物质经深部熔融、重融作用形成高温混合花岗状岩浆熔融体,侵入到地壳上层岩石,在结晶过程中,富集的气化高温初始混合岩浆上升到已冷凝或亚凝固的花岗状岩石,发生碱交代作用,导致已固化岩石中的成矿组分浸出,伴随再平衡岩浆充填交代成矿。研究结果可供五河地区寻找同类矿床参考。     

土壤中优势流的几个基本问题研究

优势流是指土壤在整个入流边界上接受补给,但只通过少部分土体的快速运移,优势流是一种普遍存在的现象,而不是一种特例,它受许多因素的控制,如土壤中的大空隙,土壤结构,土壤质地,土壤水分含量,土壤初始水分含量,水和溶质的施加速率及溶质的施加方法等,优势流的产生机理主要有两种,一种是由土壤介质的非均质所驱动的优势流;另一种是湿润锋的不稳定性所驱动的优势流,目前优势流的监测方法主要取土壤原状土,实验室内的土     

土遗址全长黏结式锚固系统动力响应解析方法

以纵向宽大裂隙引起的夯土城墙遗址稳定问题为背景,建立危险土体?锚杆?稳定土体锚固系统简化力学模型。该模型将土体对锚杆的摩阻作用简化为一个线性弹簧和一个与速度相关的阻尼器的并联机构,将裂隙段锚杆对两侧土体的拉结作用简化为一个线性弹簧。基于弹性体动力理论建立锚固系统动力平衡方程,并推导了锚杆轴力和位移的动力响应解析解。最后,以新疆高昌故城南城墙某段锚固工程为例对提出的解析方法进行了说明,明确了锚杆轴力响应特征及其分布规律,并通过数值分析对其合理性进行了验证。结果表明：在动力作用下同一位置锚杆的轴力响应呈围绕静力平衡位置的波动形态,轴力峰值点位于裂隙附近,且逐渐向临空端和锚固端指数衰减。在考虑地震加速度沿遗址高度的放大效应后能够获得较精确的锚杆轴力响应。     

搬迁农户生计策略与土地利用行为耦合协调度分析--以贵州省习水县为例

易地扶贫搬迁改变了搬迁农户生计策略,同时影响了其土地利用行为,二者之间的耦合协调度直接影响着农户的可持续生计。本文以贵州省习水县易地搬迁农户调研数据为基础,构建以农户生计策略和土地利用行为为子系统的耦合协调度模型,分析2个子系统之间的耦合关系和耦合协调关系。研究表明:纯农型农户、农兼型农户、兼农型农户生计策略与土地利用行为之间的耦合度值介于0.4~0.5之间,水平较低,处于拮抗状态;不同类型农户生计策略与土地利用行为系统耦合协调度值均处于0.39~0.49之间,处于濒临失调阶段,存在较大优化空间;传统的农业生产形式对于改善农户生计无明显效果,引导农户向专业农业型农户转变对于促进移民安置区“人地系统”协调发展大有裨益。研究结果可为农户生计与土地利用的可持续发展提供理论依据。