入户盗窃犯罪的时空分布热点及其机理研究——以A市CP区警情分析为例

采用核密度估计和Aoristic analysis等方法分析了2015年A市CP区入户盗窃警情的时空分布热点,并通过热点矩阵分类进一步对热点内的犯罪时空分布格局及其内在犯罪机理进行分析。结果显示：CP区共有3个犯罪热点区域和2个集中时段;3个热点区域分别为时间集中-空间聚集型、时间集中-空间分散型、时间集中-空间热点型;同时,影响入户盗窃犯罪的机理在于犯罪主体关联要素、犯罪客体关联要素、犯罪环境关联要素在时空上的密切耦合,共同影响入户盗窃犯罪活动的形成;提示在预防及控制犯罪“热点”中,需要采取更有针对性的防范措施和对策。     

基于共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络的空间演化及其影响因素——以北京市诈骗案件为例

当前,学界从犯罪人之间的关系模式、关系结构等方面对共同犯罪现象进行了一系列的研究,但缺少对犯罪人地域关系的稳定性分析。论文根据北京市2005、2010、2014年街头诈骗案件数据,利用社会网络原理构建了基于共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络模型,并利用网络分析等方法对参与共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络的结构特征及其变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：在2005—2014年间,参与北京市共同犯罪的犯罪人籍贯地域的空间分布逐渐集中,并形成了以华北地区为主、多个地域中心并存的格局;犯罪人的地域关系网络小世界效应逐渐增强,并从幂律分布模式向指数分布模式发展;参与共同犯罪的犯罪人群中,北京籍犯罪人的影响力逐渐下降,而河北籍犯罪人的影响力逐渐上升;犯罪人地域关系网络的凝聚子群结构逐渐发生两极分化,出现了少数共同犯罪关系异常密切的犯罪人地域子群结构。针对犯罪人地域关系网络形成及演化的原因,论文从外来人口社会关系重构与亚文化的角度进行了分析和解释,对进一步开展犯罪人的共同犯罪关系模式研究具有一定的启示。     

中国拐卖人口犯罪地理研究：进展评述与治理启示

拐卖人口犯罪是一种非正常（非自愿、被动）的人口迁移（失踪、迫害）现象,因其社会危害性大且对个体和家庭影响深远,备受公众和学界关注。囿于中国拐卖人口犯罪问题的隐蔽性、分散性、多变性和复杂性,早前研究学科视角较为集中和局限,近10年来地理学者通过不断探索逐渐取得了一些新认识和新进展。文章从地理学相关分支学科视角,重点梳理了中国拐卖人口犯罪地理研究的主要进展、现存问题、前景展望及治理启示。研究发现：1）拐卖人口犯罪是多学科共同关注的社会痛点,地理学具有后发优势,与其他学科的交叉融通将有助于深刻理解和系统解决问题。2）早前国际语境下的中国拐卖儿童犯罪研究其实是中国刑法语境下的拐卖人口犯罪的主体性研究,中国拐卖人口犯罪具有区别于其他国家和其他犯罪类型的独特性。3）早前资料来源以民间为主,当前资料来源呈现民间与官方共现,线下与线上融合的特征,多源数据的整合利用是必由之路。4）在新冠疫情影响和寻亲途径拓展背景下,田野调查开辟出新途径,云端田野调查（云端访谈、直播间参与式观察等）成为传统实地调查与踏勘的补充性或替代性方式。5）基于数据更新验证,发现中国拐卖犯罪时空格局具有稳定性与主要路径的依赖性,热点边境地区和省际交界区域值得重点关注;未来研究将从单一转向综合：从量化转向量化与质性互补与混合,从案例数字转向个体、家庭及其社会网络,从源头转向源、流、汇结合,从人口拐卖单类型转向人口失踪多类型。最后,结合已有研究认识和当前犯罪动向,提出关于治理拐卖人口犯罪和扶助被拐与寻亲人员的整体策略与具体路径。     

和谐社会视域下黑社会性质组织犯罪探析

当前我国黑社会性质组织犯罪日益成为构建和谐社会的障碍,努力遏制黑社会性质组织犯罪,对构建社会主义和谐社会具有重要意义。在阐述黑社会性质组织犯罪的现状和特征基础上,分析了其发展原因并提出了防治对策:深化经济体制改革;加大政治改革力度;加强思想文化建设;加强反"黑"的刑事立法;预防、打击、教育三者并重;加强区域合作、国际合作。     

Criminal dons and extralegal security privatization in downtown Kingston,Jamaica

In cities across the world, neoliberal retrenchment, shrinking public expenditure and an emphasis on private‐public partnerships have resulted in the privatization of many services formerly provided by the state. The privatization of security has been one of the most significant shifts in this regard, with citizens becoming responsibilized for safeguarding their own physical integrity and material belongings. This transfer of state responsibility has had an important effect on the spatial organization of cities, as formerly public spaces become both privatized and militarized. Drawing on research in Kingston, Jamaica, this paper describes how new actors from criminal organizations to security companies move to fill these physical and social spaces. Arguing for an increased focus on spatial retreat from below, it highlights the extent to which an extralegal transformation of urban security and services takes place in marginalized areas, parallel to the better studied privatization of security services in affluent areas.     

Towards a standard nomenclature for seafood species to promote more sustainable seafood trade in South Africa

Seafood fraud is widespread and undermines attempts to achieve more sustainable fisheries and seafood trade. Deliberate mislabelling of fish was first detected in South Africa in 2009, exposing the lack of coherent or explicit naming and labelling regulations. It was followed by considerable media coverage and public outrage. This catalysed a series of events that led to the creation of a new space of engagement where scientists, academics, and industry could begin to jointly solve the issue of seafood mislabelling. This paper first evaluates and identifies the shortcomings of the existing policy and regulatory framework applicable to seafood naming and labelling in South Africa. Next, it examines approaches of some other countries to deal with seafood (mis)naming, and puts forward a set of suggestions that could be used to improve the status quo in South Africa, or any other country in a similar position. Finally, it reports on subsequent developments over the past five years following the seafood scandal, including the formation of a working group with representation from across the seafood supply chain, regulatory bodies, and experts: resulting in a submission of a proposal for a new national standard for seafood market names in South Africa. These findings show how diverse actors can work in a cooperative and practical manner, to solve a common problem. Finally, it highlights the importance of the “bridging” role that non-governmental organisations can play in achieving this.     

A statistical method for detecting spatiotemporal co-occurrence patterns

Spatiotemporal co-occurrence patterns (STCOPs) are subsets of Boolean features whose instances frequently co-occur in both space and time. The detection of STCOPs is crucial to the investigation of the spatiotemporal interactions among different features. However, prevalent STCOPs reported by available methods do not necessarily indicate the statistically significant dependence among different features, which is likely to result in highly erroneous assessments in practice. To improve the reliability of results, this paper develops a statistical method to detect STCOPs and discern their statistical significance. The proposed method detects STCOPs against the null hypothesis that the spatiotemporal distributions of different features are independent of each other. To construct the null hypothesis, suitable spatiotemporal point-process models considering spatiotemporal autocorrelation are employed to model the distributions of different features. The performance of the proposed statistical method is assessed by synthetic experiments and a case study aimed at identifying crime patterns among multiple crime types in Portland City. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is more effective for detecting meaningful STCOPs than the available alternative methods.     

基于潜在受害者动态时空分布的街面接触型犯罪研究

街面接触型犯罪是指犯罪者在街面通过采取与受害者身体接触的方式而实施的违反法律的行为,已有文献研究利用了不同类型的大数据代表的周遭人口表征街面接触型犯罪中“潜在受害者”因素,但由于数据的局限性,无法应用在微观的空间尺度上的街面接触型犯罪研究。微信热力图是具有高时空分辨率和高人口覆盖度,能动态地反映人流量热度的程序。因此,本文以经济发达的ZG市的XT街道为例,结合日常活动理论,并基于微信热力图数据代表的周遭人口表征的“潜在受害者”因素,首先定性地描述和识别街面接触型犯罪的时空分布特征,然后划分不同时段分析街道街面接触型犯罪的影响因素。研究发现：① 街面接触型犯罪案件存在时空的集聚性,街道街面接触型犯罪在晚上（18:00—23:59）是高发期,在白天（07:00—17:59）是低发期,在22:00—22:59数量达到最大值,主要聚集在城中村区域,且不同时期的影响因素存在一定的差异;② 微信人口数量在所有时期均对街面接触型犯罪存在显著的正向影响,其代表的周遭人口能很好地表征日常活动理论中的“潜在受害者”因素,且在凌晨—清晨（00:00—06:59）对街面接触型犯罪的影响最大;③ 不同场所对街面接触型犯罪的影响存在时间上的差异,餐饮点在晚上对街面接触型犯罪存在显著的正向影响,KTV、健身房和公交站点分别对应在凌晨—清晨、白天与晚上对街面接触型犯罪有显著的正向影响,而休闲会所在凌晨、清晨、晚上均有显著的影响,与最近巡逻驻点的距离仅在晚上时期显著影响街面接触型犯罪。本文的研究结论可为警方采用微信热力图来分析街面接触型犯罪和经济发达地区警方部署提供参考依据。