Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA

Detecting land-use change has become of concern to environmentalists, conservationists and land use planners due to its impact on natural ecosystems. We studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes. We mapped the LULC distribution of the desert landscape for 1988, 1999, and 2011. Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 data and ancillary data were classified using the random forests approach. The technique produced LULC maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. Analysis of LULC classes from the three dates revealed that the study area was subjected to three different stages of modification, each dominated by different land uses. The use of a spatially explicit land use change modeling approach, such as Markov-CA approach, provides ways for projecting different future scenarios. Markov-CA was used to predict land use change in 2011 and project changes in 2023 by extrapolating current trends. The technique was successful in predicting LULC distribution in 2011 and the results were comparable to the actual LULC for 2011. The projected LULC for 2023 revealed more urbanization of the landscape with potential expansion in the croplands westward and northward, an increase in quarries, and growth in residential centers. The outcomes can help management activities directed toward protection of wildlife in the area. The study can also be used as a guide to other studies aiming at projecting changes in arid areas experiencing similar land use changes.     

Social capital and community preparation for urban flooding in China

Social capital can enhance community resilience to environmental change. Productive and trusted relations among social actors and effectual social norms can help local residents share resources, information and risks. The main objective of our study is to understand the ways in which social attributes and risk considerations influence adoption of resilient economic measures by individuals for reducing potential losses due to catastrophic rainstorm and flooding. This article provides evidence from China on how social capital contributes to anticipatory adaptation to environmental change. The inquiry is based on structured interviews with local residents of Tianjin, a flood-prone port city in China, and a standard regression analysis. Findings show that the intention to make preparation increases with the levels of social expectation, social relationship, and institutional trust. Perceived risk and damage experience, however, have no significant impacts. This suggests that building social capacity and trust will be more effective in enhancing community resilience than merely increasing awareness of hazard risks. We call for greater efforts on strengthening the capacity of formal and informal communal institutions. The structural changes required, however, are challenging.     

未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述

气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。     

农村居民点动态演变及驱动机制研究——以江苏省宜兴市为例

选取宜兴市为研究区,在GIS和RS技术的支撑下,对农村居民点用地的规模变化和空间分布进行分析,对引起农村居民点用地变化的驱动因素进行研究。结果表明:1农村居民点用地整体呈下降趋势,变化速度逐年减慢,主要新增来源是农用地,主要转移去向是城镇建设用地;2在地形平坦、距离水源和农用地较近的地区,农村居民点分布密集;3经济发展、人口减少、交通改善和城市化水平提高是影响农村居民点变化的主要驱动因素。     

陂塘景观研究进展与评述

快速城市化背景下,陂塘等小型半自然、人工水体正在大量消失。在综述国内外研究基础上,阐述了陂塘的相关定义、陂塘景观特征及其测度,指出陂塘景观是人们在农耕过程、土地开发过程中充分利用本地的水土资源,应对外部水环境的变化所形成的"水适应性景观"。陂塘景观具有雨洪滞蓄、旱涝调节、水质净化及生物多样性保护等重要的生态功能。在不同发展阶段下,陂塘景观应对的问题不同,景观特征有所差异,演变的总体趋势是从农业时代的水利乡土景观到工业化和城市化带来的破坏,再走向生态自觉下的多功能生态景观;变化趋势也说明了陂塘景观在上述多种生态功能方面的重要潜力。陂塘景观的保护与利用应当建立在对陂塘景观的综合评价的基础之上。最后,对将来可能的研究方向如陂塘景观的特征与功能、历史文化与社会价值、综合评价与应用研究等进行了展望。     

21世纪初期气候波动下浑善达克沙地荒漠化动态变化分析

基于EOS-MODIS遥感数据,利用GIS计算出归一化植被指数(NDVI)和植被覆盖指数(PV),计算得到荒漠化指数(DI)对浑善达克沙地荒漠化进行识别,根据像元数统计不同荒漠化类型的面积及其变化数据,再分析荒漠化面积与气象要素的相关性,进而得出近13 a在气候波动下浑善达克沙地荒漠化的动态变化。结果表明:浑善达克沙地年平均气温呈下降趋势,年平均降水量呈增加趋势,且平均降水量对荒漠化动态变化的影响比平均气温对荒漠化动态变化的影响大。在气候波动影响下浑善达克沙地以荒漠化面积缩小为主,中度荒漠化,重度荒漠化和极重度荒漠化对荒漠化的演替贡献较大,表现为高程度荒漠化向低程度荒漠化转换。空间分布上,表现为西部极重度荒漠化面积明显减少,主要转化为重度荒漠化类型,东中部重度荒漠化明显减少,主要转化为未荒漠化和轻度荒漠化类型。     

极地冰盖物质平衡的最新进展与未来挑战

准确地探明冰盖物质平衡状况,对于研究全球变暖背景下海平面变化具有重要的意义,自IPCC AR4(政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次报告)以来,极地冰盖物质平衡的研究取得了很大进展。本文总结并对比了用卫星测高(雷达测高和激光测高)、物质收支测量和重力测量等方法得到的冰盖物质平衡评估结果,综述了冰盖数值模拟研究在预测冰盖未来的变化趋势以及由此对海平面造成的影响等方面取得的进展,并立足于中国当前的极地冰盖物质平衡研究现状,提出了该研究所面临的挑战。     

南泥湾湿地生态变迁研究

南泥湾是我国陕北的一片重要湿地,曾为中国革命的生存和发展提供了重要保障,在抗战时期垦殖而至今未被科学认知。根据史料记载以及人物传记,基于南泥湾湿地的科学认定,分析了南泥湾湿地的生态变迁,明确提出恢复南泥湾湿地,为陕北的好江南建设提供一定的科学支撑,为南泥湾湿地的恢复与部分重建提供前期基础。理想完美的南泥湾生态系统应当是湿地、森林、农田、草地的综合体,应当是陕北黄土高原的一块绿洲。     

Use of WorldView-2 time series to establish a wetland monitoring program for potential offsite impacts of mine site rehabilitation

The Ramsar-listed wetlands of the Magela Creek floodplain, situated in the World Heritage Kakadu National Park, in northern Australia are recognised for their biodiversity and cultural values. The floodplain is also a downstream receiving environment for Ranger uranium mine, which is entering closure and rehabilitation phases. Vegetation on the floodplain is spatially and temporally variable which is related to the hydrology of the region, primarily the extent and level of inundation and available soil moisture. Time-series mapping of the floodplain vegetation will provide a contemporary baseline of annual vegetation dynamics to assist with determining whether change is natural or a result of the potential impacts of mine closure activities such as increased suspended sediment moving downstream. The research described here used geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) to classify the upper Magela Creek floodplain vegetation from WorldView-2 imagery captured over four years (2010–2013) and ancillary data including a canopy height model. A step-wise rule set was used to implement a decision tree classification. The resulting maps showed the 12 major vegetation communities that exist on the Magela Creek floodplain and their distribution for May 2010, May 2011, June 2012 and June 2013 with overall accuracies of over 80% for each map. Most of the error appears to be associated with confusion between vegetation classes that are spectrally similar such as the classes dominated by grasses. Object-based change detection was then applied to the maps to analyse change between dates. Results indicate that change between dates was detected for large areas of the floodplain. Most of the change is associated with the amount of surface water present, indicating that although imagery was captured at the same time of year, the imagery represents different stages of the seasonal cycle of the floodplain.