Utilisation and Management Changes in South Kyrgyzstan''''s Mountain Forests

IntroductionThe mountain forests of South Kyrgyzstan have a long history of human influence. The political and socio-economic conditions prevailing in the region have changed dramatically several times over the last century and have played animportant role in forest policy, management and use. To highlight the human-environment relationship, I have chosen here to use a political ecology approach as conceptual framework (cf. Bryant & Bailey 1997, Bryant 1998, Blaikie 1999). In this approach,…     

基于最大熵模型的深圳市内涝影响因素分析及内涝风险评估

城市内涝是最常见的自然灾害之一,深入剖析其影响因素并进行风险评估对内涝防治具有重要意义。以往研究表明,城市内涝是由自然因素(如地形)和人为因素(如土地利用)共同引起的。在土地利用方面,相关学者主要关注二维空间因素对内涝的影响,较少顾及土地利用的三维建筑格局。此外,在研究方法的选取上,尽管已有学者利用随机森林、神经网络等模型对内涝影响因素进行研究,然而传统方法在负样本(不发生内涝的地点)的选取上存在不确定性。为解决这2点不足,论文引入最大熵(MAXENT)模型,以深圳市为研究案例,通过MAXENT剖析各潜在影响因子与内涝风险的关系。结果表明,影响内涝风险的主导环境因子为不透水面比例、绿地比例、人口密度、暴雨峰值雨量、地表起伏度。而对内涝发生有重要影响的三维因子为容积率、建筑形状系数、平均高度。通过MAXENT评估的内涝风险结果可知,深圳潜在高风险区的面积约为491 km²,占市域面积的24.58%,主要位于龙华区、南山区、龙岗区北部、光明区、福田区。进一步对潜在高风险区进行空间自相关分析,结果发现过往并不存在内涝点的南山区北部、福田区西部、罗湖区中部等部分区域风险概...     

Finnland

The forest limits of south-east Norway have expanded to higher altitudes. Two main processes are believed to cause these changes: regrowth after abandonment of human utilisation and recent climate changes. The article aims at separating the effects of these two processes on the upper forest limits and recent forest expansion. Four datasets representing 161.5 km² have been used: climate data, downscaled climate change scenario data, forest height growth, and four vegetation maps. The maps represent the years 1959 and 2001, potential natural vegetation (PNV), and a climate change scenario (CCS). The recent upper potential climatic and edaphic forest limit (UPCEFL) was used to define the potential for forest regrowth after the abandonment of human utilisation. Forest height growth and climate data were then used to analyse any supplementary effect of recent climate change. The projected future forest limits were based on the IPCC IS92a scenario for 2020–2049. The results show that raised forest limits and forest range expansion often attributed to recent climate change is rather the product of regrowth, a process that was climatically retarded from 1959 to 1995. For the period 1995–2006, the data indicate a preliminary effect of climate change escalating the regrowth and probably pushing the future forest limits to higher altitudes.     

PS材料加固遗址土室内试验研究

土遗址文物的保护加固迫在眉睫,尤其是在西北地区,由于其特殊的地理气候环境,土遗址的破坏比较明显。为了延长土遗址的寿命,使其长久保存下去,在对土遗址文物的加固保护过程中,发明了很多有效的材料。本文就是以PS材料为研究对象,选用具有代表性的交河故城和高昌故城土,对其原状样和重塑样进行PS材料加固后,分别进行抗压、抗拉、雨淋、风洞试验及雨淋风洞复合试验,研究其加固故城土后的强度及耐久性能。大量的室内试验结果表明,经PS材料加固后,土体的力学性能和抗雨蚀、抗风蚀能力得到明显改善,说明PS材料具有良好的加固效果,为将其进一步应用于土遗址保护加固工程中提供了具有价值的理论指导。     

西双版纳季风常绿阔叶林的群落学特征

对西双版纳地区季风常绿阔叶林植物群落的物种组成、区系成分、多样性指数、群落外貌、结构特征以及物种面积关系等进行了分析,结果表明在3块2 500 m2的样地上,计有维管束植物70～123种,分别属于36～49科、70～74属;区系地理成分可分为12个类型,主要以热带区系成分为主,其中又以热带亚洲(印度-马来西亚)分布和泛热带分布的成分占优势,温带成分所占的比例很少;群落中胸径≥2 cm的乔木树种丰富度为60±11.14,Shannon-Wiener指数为2.605 1±0.342 0,Pielou均匀度指数为0.637 3±0.065 4;群落的结构层次可分为乔木(Ⅰ、Ⅱ)层、灌木层和草本层;群落外貌以单叶、革质、全缘、中叶为主的常绿中、小高位芽植物组成为特征;物种-面积曲线在取样面积为1 500 m2时开始趋于平缓.与本地区的季节雨林和山地雨林相比,西双版纳季风常绿阔叶林群落的中、小高位芽植物以及单叶、革质、中叶植物所占的比例较大,而大高位芽、藤本植物的比例较少.与其他地区常绿阔叶林相比,其中高位芽、全缘叶、中叶植物比例明显偏高,小、矮高位芽、小叶植物比例则明显减少;物种多样性指数低于本地区季节雨林和山地雨林以及广东鼎湖山、白云山的常绿阔叶林,与云南哀牢山、浙江天台山的常绿阔叶林较为接近,但明显高于日本Okinawa群岛、滇中地区的常绿阔叶林.表明西双版纳的季风常绿阔叶林物种组成较为丰富,群落结构复杂,植物多样性指数较高,植物区系成分虽具有一定的温带成分,但主要以热带区系成分为主,热带性较强.     

林冠对降雨截留能力的研究

林冠截留能力是指在理想条件下林冠枝叶对任意降雨量的最大吸附量,随降雨量的增加而增加。当降雨量足够大时,林冠截留能力就等于林冠截留容量。所以,林冠截留容量是林冠截留能力的最大值。借鉴水文学中蓄满产流理论,构建林冠截留降雨能力模型。此外,结合一个具体林分的实测资料,介绍了林冠截留能力的近似确定方法,并与模型的模拟结果进行了比较。结果表明,两者非常吻合,表明文章建立的林冠截留能力模型是有效的,可以用于评判和比较不同林分对降雨截留作用的大小。     

西藏羊八井地区太阳短波辐照度特征及其短期预测模型对比分析

本研究利用西藏羊八井太阳短波辐照度观测数据分析了该地区2020—2021年的辐射时间序列分布特征,基于时间序列分析、随机森林（Random Forest,RF）和Prophet进行建模预测,通过对比研究探究三种模型在该地区的适用性以及提高模型预测精度的方法.结果表明：该地区短波太阳辐照度呈双峰倒U型分布的月变化和单峰倒U型分布的日变化特征.RF在选用模型中最优,其标准化均方根误差（Normalized Root Mean Square Error,NRMSE）、决定系数R2分别为17.54%和0.962.小波变换去噪能提高各模型预测精度,NRMSE降低4.82%~12.94%.组合模型能提高预测精度,误差倒数权重组合模型的NRMSE较差分自回归滑动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）和Prophet分别下降35.22%、25.12%.预测时间步长差异也会影响预测效果,模型的预测误差随时间步长逐渐增大而减小.因此,可利用RF等机器学习模型在西藏地区进行太阳辐照度短期预测,通过小波变换、组合模型、预测时间步长等环节提高预测精度,以满足当地光伏发电对太阳辐照度的预测需求.     

基于Forest-DNDC的长白山阔叶红松林土壤碳氮温室气体通量的模拟研究（英文）

土壤温室气体排放是土壤与大气之间的温室气体交换的重要途径,但对土壤温室气体排放动态变化的理解和收支水平的估算仍存在较大的不确定性。基于动态箱原位监测的高频、连续土壤温室气体通量数据,本研究初步检验了生物地球化学模型(Forest-DNDC)对长白山阔叶红松林(CBF)土壤CH_4、CO_2和N_2O温室气体通量的模拟效果。结果显示,当前版本的Forest-DNDC可以反演得到土壤温度、土壤湿度和积雪等主要环境要素的总体变化趋势,但是对于环境要素季节变化的准确模拟尚存在较明显偏差,特别是在非生长季节。模拟得到的土壤CH_4通量与监测结果相当接近,并且受到了土壤温度和积雪变化的显著调控。受温度变化的影响,模拟CO_2通量的季节变化与测定值相似,均在夏季达到高峰,但模拟的土壤CO_2排放量明显小于实际测定结果。与监测的土壤N_2O通量在春季冻融期间出现排放高峰的变化显著不同的是,模拟土壤N_2O通量主要受温度变化的影响,其最大值出现在夏季。因此,有必要结合更长时段的土壤温室气体监测数据,进一步优化模型参数与过程,特别是土壤水热传导和温室气体的产生过程等,为模拟改进和生态系统碳氮收支评估,以及从站点到区域的扩展提供支撑。     

Ten‐year water table recovery after clearcutting and draining boreal forested wetlands of eastern Canada

In boreal forested wetlands, the observed increase in the water table level after clearcutting (watering‐up) is often a threat to sustained ecosystem productivity. Hydrologic recovery refers to the processes by which a water table progressively drops back to its initial level after the cut. In eastern Canada, drainage is used operationally after clearcutting wet sites in order to lower the water table level and accelerate hydrologic recovery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the duration of the watering‐up caused by timber harvesting and the extent to which drainage affected the water table recovery on five peatlands and three hydromorphic mineral sites located in the St. Lawrence Lowlands of Québec (Canada). The mixed wood stands studied are dominated by balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), eastern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.), and red maple (Acer rubrum L). Results indicate that, 10 years after clearcutting, water table levels in undrained plots are still 5 to 7 cm higher than the pre‐cut levels. The slight recovery in water table level plateaued after the third year. Rainfall interception by vegetation was also monitored, and after 10 years had reached nearly 50% of the pre‐cut rate. The immediate water table drawdown following drainage mitigated watering‐up within 40 m of a ditch. The persistent watering‐up observed in this study should encourage using sylvicultural systems adapted to boreal forested wetlands in order to prevent productivity loss and stand conversion. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics of the boreal alpine ecotone of northwestern Fennoscandia

Climate change with respect to summer temperature throughout the Holocene is inferred from oscillations in the local Pinus sylvestris, Alnus incana and Betula pubescens forest‐lines, as recorded by fossil pollen and plant macrofossils in lake sediments at four altitudinal levels. Mt Skrubben (848 m a.s.l.), in Dividalen, was deglaciated down to below 280 m a.s.l. during 10 800–10 300 cal. yr BP. Betula pubescens established 10100 cal. yr BP at 280 m a.s.l. and expanded up to near the summit during the next 700 years. Birch woodland prevailed on the mountain plateau until 3300 cal. yr BP. Local Pinus sylvestris stands are recorded up to 400 m a.s.l. at 8450 cal. yr BP and >548 m a.s.l. about 8160 cal. yr BP. Alnus incana expanded from 400 to nearly 790 m a.s.l. during the period 7900–7600 cal. yr BP. The maximum forest distribution lasted until ca. 6000 cal. yr BP. Marked climatic deteriorations caused lowering of the forest‐lines around 4600 and 3000 cal. yr BP. Reconstruction of the summer temperature indicated mean July temperatures at 400 m a.s.l. of 1.5–3°C above the present during the period of maximum forest expansion, whereas >3°C above the present temperature at 548 m a.s.l. This is in accordance with other regional temperature reconstructions from northern Europe. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.