Possibilities of land use change analysis in a mountainous rural area: a methodological approach

Decreasing population density is a current trend in the European Union, and causes a lower environmental impact on the landscape. However, besides the desirable effect on the regeneration processes of semi-natural forest ecosystems, the lack of traditional management techniques can also lead to detrimental ecological processes. In this study we investigated the land use pattern changes in a micro-region (in North-Eastern Hungary) between 1952 and 2005, based on vectorised land use data from archive aerial photos. We also evaluated the methodology of comparisons using GIS methods, fuzzy sets and landscape metrics. We found that both GIS methods and statistical analysis of landscape metrics resulted in more or less the same findings. Differences were not as relevant as was expected considering the general tendencies of the past 60 years in Hungary. The change in the annual rate of forest recovery was 0.12%; settlements extended their area by an annual rate of 3.04%, while grasslands and arable lands had a net loss in their area within the studied period (0.60% and 0.89%, respectively). The kappa index showed a smaller similarity (~60%) between these dates but the fuzzy kappa and the aggregation index, taking into account both spatial and thematic errors, gave a more reliable result (~70–80% similarity). Landscape metrics on patch and class level ensured the possibility of a detailed analysis. We arrived at a similar outcome but were able to verify all the calculations through statistical tests. With this approach we were able to reveal significant (p < 0.05) changes; however, effect sizes did not show large magnitudes. Comparing the methods of revealing landscape change, the approach of landscape metrics was the most effective approach, as it was independent of spatial errors and ensuring a multiple way of interpretation.     

Very high CO2 exchange fluxes at the peak of the rainy season in a West African grazed semi-arid savanna ecosystem

Africa is a sink of carbon, but there are large gaps in our knowledge regarding the CO₂ exchange fluxes for many African ecosystems. Here, we analyse multi-annual eddy covariance data of CO₂ exchange fluxes for a grazed Sahelian semi-arid savanna ecosystem in Senegal, West Africa. The aim of the study is to investigate the high CO₂ exchange fluxes measured at the peak of the rainy season at the Dahra field site: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration peaked at values up to ?48 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 and 20 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1, respectively. Possible explanations for such high fluxes include a combination of moderately dense herbaceous C4 ground vegetation, high soil nutrient availability and a grazing pressure increasing the fluxes. Even though the peak net CO₂ uptake was high, the annual budget of ?229 ± 7 ± 49 g C m^?2 y^?1 (±random errors ± systematic errors) is comparable to that of other semi-arid savanna sites due the short length of the rainy season. An inter-comparison between the open-path and a closed-path infrared sensor indicated no systematic errors related to the instrumentation. An uncertainty analysis of long-term NEE budgets indicated that corrections for air density fluctuations were the largest error source (11.3% out of 24.3% uncertainty). Soil organic carbon data indicated a substantial increase in the soil organic carbon pool for the uppermost .20 m. These findings have large implications for the perception of the carbon sink/source of Sahelian ecosystems and its response to climate change.     

A seasonal comparison of prokaryote numbers,biomass and heterotrophic productivity in waters of the KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

The KwaZulu-Natal Bight is a shallow indentation of the eastern seaboard of South Africa, characterised by a narrow (45 km wide) extension of the continental shelf, with a shelf break at about 100 m. It has a complex hydrography: the waters of the bight are derived from the fast-flowing, southward-trending Agulhas Current, which is fed mostly by the tropical and subtropical surface waters of the South-West Indian Ocean subgyre, which are generally oligotrophic in nature, notably depleted in reduced nitrogen and phosphate except at river mouths and during periodic upwelling of deeper nutrient-rich water. Despite this, the bight is believed to be relatively productive, and it is suggested that efficient nutrient recycling by prokaryotes may sustain primary productivity efficiently, even in the absence of new nutrient inputs. Here we have measured bacterial numbers, biomass and heterotrophic productivity during summer and winter in conjunction with phytoplankton standing stock and factors that influence it. Bacterial distribution closely matched phytoplankton distribution in surface waters, and was highest close to the coast. Bacterial standing stocks were similar to those of oligotrophic systems elsewhere (0.5–5.0 × 10⁵ cells ml^–1; 1 × 10^–8 to 1.25 × 10^–7 g C ml^–1) and increased in association with the development of phytoplankton blooms offshore and with inputs of allochthonous material by rivers at the coast. Heterotrophic productivity in summer was lowest in the far south and north of the bight (0.5 × 10^–10 g C ml^–1 h^–1) but higher close to the shore, over shallow banks, and in association with increased phytoplankton abundance over the midshelf (1.0–3.5 × 10^–9 g C ml^–1 h^–1). There were marked seasonal differences with lower bacterial standing stocks (5 × 10⁴ to 2 × 10⁵ cells ml^–1; 4–5 × 10^–9 to 1–2 × 10^–8 g C ml^–1) and very low bacterial productivity (4 × 10^–11 to 1 × 10^–10 g C ml^–1 h^–1) in winter, probably resulting from lowered rates of primary productivity and dissolved organic matter release as well as reduced riverine allochthonous inputs during the winter drought.     

Geological Controls on the CBM Productivity of No.15 Coal Seam of Carboniferous–Permian Taiyuan Formation in Southern Qinshui Basin and Prediction for CBM High-yield Potential Regions

Coalbed methane (CBM) resources in No.15 coal seam of Taiyuan Formation account for 55% of the total CBM resources in southern Qinshui Basin (SQB), and have a great production potential. This study aims at investigating the CBM production in No.15 coal seam and its influence factors. Based on a series of laboratory experiments and latest exploration and development data from local coal mines and CBM companies, the spatial characteristics of gas production of No.15 coal seam were analyzed and then the influences of seven factors on the gas productivity of this coal seam were discussed, including coal thickness, burial depth, gas content, ratio of critical desorption pressure to original coal reservoir pressure (RCPOP), porosity, permeability, and hydrogeological condition. The influences of hydrological condition on CBM production were analyzed based on the discussions of four aspects: hydrogeochemistry, roof lithology and its distribution, hydrodynamic field of groundwater, and recharge rate of groundwater. Finally, a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP) evaluation model was proposed for predicting the CBM potentials of the No.15 coal seam in the SQB. The best prospective target area for CBM production of the No.15 coal seam is predicted to be in the districts of Panzhuang, Chengzhuang and south of Hudi.     

Landsat-8 vs. Sentinel-2: examining the added value of sentinel-2’s red-edge bands to land-use and land-cover mapping in Burkina Faso

The availability of freely available moderate-to-high spatial resolution (10–30 m) satellite imagery received a major boost with the recent launch of the Sentinel-2 sensor by the European Space Agency. Together with Landsat, these sensors provide the scientific community with a wide range of spatial, spectral, and temporal properties. This study compared and explored the synergistic use of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data in mapping land use and land cover (LULC) in rural Burkina Faso. Specifically, contribution of the red-edge bands of Sentinel-2 in improving LULC mapping was examined. Three machine-learning algorithms – random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and support vector machines – were employed to classify different data configurations. Classification of all Sentinel-2 bands as well as Sentinel-2 bands common to Landsat-8 produced an overall accuracy, that is 5% and 4% better than Landsat-8. The combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 red-edge bands resulted in a 4% accuracy improvement over that of Landsat-8. It was found that classification of the Sentinel-2 red-edge bands alone produced better and comparable results to Landsat-8 and the other Sentinel-2 bands, respectively. Results of this study demonstrate the added value of the Sentinel-2 red-edge bands and encourage multi-sensoral approaches to LULC mapping in West Africa.     

西昌市1989—2018年林地草地湿地动态变化特征分析

遥感技术已被广泛应用于生态环境调查与研究。为获取西昌市近30 a生态环境演化趋势,利用1989年、2000年、2010年的专题绘图仪(Thematic Mapper,TM)遥感影像和2018年的陆地成像仪(Operational Land Imager,OLI)遥感影像,通过图像处理、目视解译和野外验证等方法,获得了西昌市1989—2018年的土地利用/覆盖数据,并对林地、草地和湿地的动态变化特征进行了研究。结果表明: 1989—2018年,西昌市林地、湿地和草地面积持续增加,生态环境持续向好; 林地主要分布于安宁河谷和邛海盆地四周山地,在牦牛山、螺髻山一带形成主要林区; 草地主要呈星岛状分布于牦牛山、螺髻山一带林地之间; 湿地以河流湿地与湖泊湿地为主,主要沿安宁河及邛海分布。但仍存在一些问题: 森林存在针叶化现象较普遍、树种单一等问题,需要重点加强林区火灾防范; 草地多数呈零星片状分布,不具有完整的系统结构和良好的功能,多数草地承载力和生产力较低,不宜大规模开发利用,应通过封山育林促使其向森林转化; 湿地分布也比较局限,需要着力予以保护。研究成果可为西昌市生态保护修复措施的制定及经济社会可持续发展提供科学依据。     

1961—2010年中国气候生产潜力时空格局变化及其潜在可承载人口分析

以气温、降水格点数据为基础,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了中国气候生产潜力(CPP),并从气候的角度估算了耕地上气候资源潜在可承载的人口数,以便增强了解气候变化的影响及气候资源最大人口支撑能力。结果表明:1961—2010年中国CPP总体呈突变性增加趋势,1987年为突变点,年最低、最高及平均值分别为689. 18、814. 56和744. 05 g·m^-2·a^-1。空间上呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布,其中高值区主要分布在华南大部,最高值达2103. 56 g·m^-2·a^-1;低值区主要分布在西、北部地区,最低值为39. 28 g·m^-2·a^-1。2001—2010年中国大部分地区CPP年平均值相对于1961—2010年多年平均值变化幅度不大,变化比例高的地区基本上分布于中国西、北部,其中增加的区域达82%,主要分布在华东地区、新疆西部、西藏北部及青海大部,远大于缩减的区域(17%)。1995—2010年,基于公里网格的耕地气候潜在可承载人口为46—2180人·km^-2,全国平均值最低的年份为1130人·km^-2,对应的实际人口为0—49729人·km^-2,全国平均值均不高于137人·km^-2;全国实际总人口为11. 43—13. 04亿,耕地气候潜在可承载总人口为19. 72—20. 22亿,前后比值为58%—65%。这表明,中国耕地生产力未达到气候生产潜力,尚有一定的开发潜力;实际人口在中国大部分地区均没有超出气候资源潜在可承载的最大人口,然而在少数省市(如生态环境脆弱的青海省以及经济发达的大城市及沿海地区)已超出。     

海南岛天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价

台风灾害是海南橡胶种植中影响最为严重和主要的灾害,为对其风险进行定量评估,本研究以海南岛天然橡胶林为研究对象,基于灾害风险评估理论,融合橡胶台风灾害、社会经济和气象数据,建立橡胶台风灾害危险性、暴露性和脆弱性评价模型,利用加权综合评价法开展天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价。结果表明：海南橡胶种植高风险区位于沿海台风发生频繁市县,其中琼海、文昌、海口为海南岛橡胶灾害风险最高的地区,其次陵水、万宁、琼中、屯昌、东方等地区灾害风险也较高。风险最低地区位于中部五指山、保亭、乐东、三亚等地区,评价结果与实际灾害发生以及种植情况相符。评价结果表明,台风灾害危险性是风险的主导因子,但非单一决定因子,种植技术、品种改良等措施对脆弱性降低起到了较好的促进作用。评价结果可为橡胶林避灾防灾及种植布局提供依据。     

基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。     

MULTIVARIATE GEOMORPHIC ANALYSIS OF FOREST STREAMS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE IMPACTS ON CHANNEL CONDITION

Multivariate statistical analyses of geomorphic variables from 23 forest stream reaches in southeast Alaska result in successful discrimination between pristine streams and those disturbed by land management, specifically timber harvesting and associated road building. Results of discriminant function analysis indicate that a three-variable model discriminates 10 disturbed from 13 undisturbed reaches with 90 per cent and 92 per cent correct classification respectively. These variables are the total number of pools per reach, the ratio of mean residual pool depth to mean bankfull depth, and the ratio of critical shear stress of the median surface grain size to bankfull shear stress. The last variable can be dropped without a decrease in rate of correct classification; however, the resulting two-variable model may be less robust. Analysis of the distribution of channel units, including pool types, can also be used to discriminate disturbed from undisturbed reaches and is particularly useful for assessment of aquatic habitat condition. However, channel unit classification and inventory can be subject to considerable error and observer bias. Abundance of pool-related large woody debris is highly correlated with pool frequency and is an important factor determining channel morphology. Results of this study yield a much needed, objective, geomorphic discrimination of pristine and disturbed channel conditions, providing a reference standard for channel assessment and restoration efforts.