Seismic comprehensive forecast based on modified project pursuit regression

In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression (PPR) is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation: to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast.     

流量沿程变化的不平衡输沙含沙量过程预报方法

本文从水沙运动机理出发,将简化的一维不平衡输沙模型与假定河道水量调节为线性水库式调节前提下推导出的河道流量沿程变化模型相结合,建立了冲积性河流含沙量过程预报模型。并利用花园口—夹河滩河段以及龙门—潼关河段水沙资料对模型的模拟效果进行了检验。结果表明,由于模型考虑了流量沿河道纵向上的变化,而使模型的模拟预报效果较单一的一维恒定均匀流不平衡输沙模型有明显改善,含沙量模拟预报效果较满意。     

预报预警在地质灾害防治中的应用

本文介绍了江西地质灾害气象预报模型的建立、计算方法,以及预警预报在地质灾害防治工作中获得的成功,对类似条件地区的地质灾害防治工作,具有一定的借鉴作用。     

火成岩气藏储层预测及勘探技术——以松辽盆地长岭断陷为例

本文以松辽盆地长岭断陷达尔罕断凸带火成岩气藏预测为例,从已钻遇火成岩的钻井资料出发,结合钻井地质信息与地震资料,利用地震特殊处理技术识别火成岩.通过分析结果,研究该区的火成岩分布特征及油气成藏规律,建立判断火成岩的地球物理模式.结合本区域地质资料,预测了本区的火成岩分布,总结出适合本区火成岩构造特征的火成岩气藏识别技术,包括火成岩测井识别技术、火成岩地震剖面反射特征识别技术、火成岩地震相识别技术和地震反演技术等来预测火成岩的空间展布规律,了解火成岩与构造的关系.进而识别火成岩圈闭,总结断陷层系油气成藏组合,为在本区寻找火成岩气藏提供系统分析方法.     

Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins

Distributed hydrological modelling using space–time estimates of rainfall from weather radar provides a natural approach to area-wide flood forecasting and warning at any location, whether gauged or ungauged. However, radar estimates of rainfall may lack consistent, quantitative accuracy. Also, the formulation of hydrological models in distributed form may be problematic due to process complexity and scaling issues. Here, the aim is to first explore ways of improving radar rainfall accuracy through combination with raingauge network data via integrated multiquadric methods. When the resulting gridded rainfall estimates are employed as input to hydrological models, the simulated river flows show marked improvements when compared to using radar data alone. Secondly, simple forms of physical–conceptual distributed hydrological model are considered, capable of exploiting spatial datasets on topography and, where necessary, land-cover, soil and geology properties. The simplest Grid-to-Grid model uses only digital terrain data to delineate flow pathways and to control runoff production, the latter by invoking a probability-distributed relation linking terrain slope to soil absorption capacity. Model performance is assessed over nested river basins in northwest England, employing a lumped model as a reference. When the distributed model is used with the gridded radar-based rainfall estimators, it shows particular benefits for forecasting at ungauged locations.     

Hydrological modeling using a dynamic neuro-fuzzy system with on-line and local learning algorithm

This paper introduces the dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modeling system (DNFLMS) that is based on a dynamic Takagi–Sugeno (TS) type fuzzy inference system with on-line and local learning algorithm for complex dynamic hydrological modeling tasks. Our DNFLMS is aimed to implement a fast training speed with the capability of on-line simulation where model adaptation occurs at the arrival of each new item of hydrological data. The DNFLMS applies an on-line, one-pass, training procedure to create and update fuzzy local models dynamically. The extended Kalman filtering algorithm is then implemented to optimize the parameters of the consequence part of each fuzzy model during the training phase. Local generalization in the DNFLMS is employed to optimize the parameters of each fuzzy model separately, region-by-region, using subsets of training data rather than all training data.     

海陆风及沿海风速廓线在风电场风速预报中的应用

为了建立沿海风功率预报系统,本文探讨了中国沿海风电场风速预报问题,并利用数值模式RAMS对海陆风进行了模拟研究.发现海陆风发生时,海风和陆风阶段风速廓线存在较大差异,海风阶段风速的垂直切变明显小于陆风阶段.海陆风发生时,风速会呈现有规律的变化,即海风和陆风分别有两个时段：风速增加时段和风速减少时段.在为沿海风电场提供风速预报时,当模式预报到海陆风发生时,可以利用海陆风的这种特点,使用统计方法对预报出的风速进行有效的订正.并发现即使没有海陆风发生,当风向为海洋吹向陆地时,风速随高度的垂直切变同样小于陆地吹向海洋的时段.利用统计方法根据不同风向时风速廓线的特性,把数值模式计算高度上的预报结果,精确地插值到风机涡轮高度,会很大程度上减少风速预报的误差及风功率预报环节的误差.     

统计预测模型对三峡库区诱发地震预测的应用

通过实地考察并结合前人的研究成果,在地震地质背景研究的基础上,将长江三峡工程坝址至巫山库段划分为5个预测区共12个预测单元,选用8个诱震因素,运用统计预测模型预测了水库诱发地震的可能性及诱发地震震级。结果表明,库水蓄至最高水位,三峡工程坝址至巫山库段中多数预测单元诱发微震和不发生地震的概率值高,无震可能性较大。但九湾溪断层沿线、仙女山断层库段具备诱发3.0～4.5级或4.5～6.0级地震的可能;考虑到龙会观5.1级地震与高桥断裂的关系,预测结果显示高桥断裂沿线具有诱发强烈水库地震(≥6.0级)的可能性,其预测概率值为0.23     

煤瓦斯突出研究现状及其研究方向探讨

本文通过学习总结煤炭行业近200年来对煤瓦斯突出的研究成果和工作经验, 了解其具体的研究思路方法、研究历史发展过程、研究现状及存在的关键问题, 探讨采用地质力学理论方法进行煤瓦斯突出研究的可能性与可行性.      

广东沿海台风风暴潮可视化预报系统

广东省地处南海北部,风暴潮灾害严重。为快速准确做好风暴潮预报并将预报结果应用于防灾减灾中,根据南海预报中心多年来在风暴潮数值预报、经验统计方法预报和潮汐预报的实践,研制了可视化软件。此软件可显示广东省28个沿海主要港口的逐时风暴增水与天文潮位的综合潮位曲线与数值,以动态或静态显示广东沿海海面的增水等值线图,成为业务化预报软件。多年的风暴潮数值预报的实践证明,国家海洋环境预报中心王喜年等在八·五攻关项目中推广应用的台风风暴潮模式,在广东沿岸的风暴潮数值预报中效果较好,可视化预报软件采用这一模式是合适的。