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排序方式: 共有1737条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
821.
统计了1993年1月-1995年4月冬半年(11月次年4月)火险等级预报与实况等级的相关关系,着重分析了火险预报与森林火灾的关系,得到较好的结果,同时提出了对火险预报的改进意见。 相似文献
822.
Summary Predictor vectors, including upper air as well as surface data, were used for categorical forecasting convective events over a subregion of the Czech territory, and the effect of including surface variables in the predictor vector was examined. While upper air data were considered as Perfect Prognosis, the surface data were successively included according to the time of their origin. The forecasting technique was based on linear multiple regression with learning, and the accuracy of the forecast was measured by the Critical Success Index. The input data from the three May-September periods in 1989–91 were used, and the first year served as the learning set. The aerological data from TEMP 12 UTC, simulating Perfect Prognosis, were the source of the upper air predictors. The performance of all, upper air, surface and combined, predictors were evaluated and compared. It turned out that the improvement of prediction accuracy due to the inclusion of surface variables was not negligible. Significant improvements were made in the forecasts of thunderstorm occurrence between 18 and 24 UTC. 相似文献
823.
农业气象产量预测业务系统(The Agrometeorological Yield Forecasting Operational System,简称AYFOS)使用Quick BASIC、MS-C和汇编语言混合编写而成,采用下拉式和弹出式中文菜单提示、彩色光(亮)条选择的人机界面,提供在线帮助。系统软件结构合理,操作方便、灵活,容错性好,产品图文并茂。系统功能齐全,包括数据管理、组建预测模型、预测模型思路记忆、模型实时预测与预测集成、产品输出管理和系统维护等主要功能模块。系统在某些方面具有自己的软件特色 相似文献
824.
苏小岚 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2001,24(3):15-17
从天气学角度,分析了1998年4月17-18日鲺鲁木齐东南大风天气过程,从地形、高、中、低层的影响系统特征以及本站要素的变化等,探讨地面气压场的演变,地面锋前减压幅度等与乌鲁木齐东南大风的起始时间、强度、维持时间的关系。 相似文献
825.
天气预报哲学观若干问题思考 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
薛根元 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2001,24(6):28-30
运用马克思主义哲学和自然辩证法的基本原理,从人与自然,人与机器互动的科学哲学观点出发,探讨了天气预报哲学观的若干问题。 相似文献
826.
人工神经网络方法在降水量级中期预报中的应用 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
将人工神经网络方法与统计方法相结合,采用分步预报的方法,首先用经验统计方法进行晴雨预测,再用BP人工经网络建立降水量级预报模型,探讨神经网络方法在中期降水预报的应用,试验表明,神经网络方法能提高中到大雨降水量级的中期预报能力,但对暴雨的预报不理想。 相似文献
827.
Laura Lpez Jos Luis Marcos Jos Luis Snchez Amaya Castro Roberto Fraile 《Atmospheric Research》2001,56(1-4)
A study has been carried out in León (in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula) on atmospheric convection during summer periods, by analyzing the values of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) around 07:00 UTC. The project analyzed the data provided by a network of voluntary observers, a hailpad network, and a meteorological station on a sample of 224 days. The CAPE values found were not high: they never reached 2000 J/kg, not even on hail days, i.e. on days with high convective activity. These values are much lower than the ones measured in convective situations in tropical regions, but they are within the usual values found in Europe. The same happens with the wet bulb potential temperature measured in León. The frequency distribution of the CAPE values shows a clear prevalence of very low or zero values. The group of days with the lowest CAPE value is that which included days with no storm. The mean value increases on storm days, and it is even higher for the days with recorded hailfalls. All these differences are significantly marked. Nevertheless, the differences across the years are not significant enough to be able to speak of an influence of the climatic change on the CAPE. The correlation of the CAPE with some of the variables previously used for hail forecasts was analyzed, and the correlation found was higher for the lifted index. The possible use of the CAPE as a thunderstorm and hailstorm forecasting method was considered. The results were encouraging, especially for hail forecasting, although the CAPE should not be used as the only variable, but combined with other parameters. Moreover, the relationships between the CAPE and the wet bulb potential temperature and between the CAPE and the physical parameters of the hailstones were also analyzed. A relationship was observed with the parameters of the hailstone size distribution. Nonetheless, these results are provisional, and they should be confirmed by analyzing a more representative sample. With a more detailed analysis of these and other relationships, the present forecast model used by the Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics at the University of León is expected to be greatly improved by including the CAPE in this model. 相似文献
828.
829.
遥感与GIS在蝗虫监测和预报中的应用前景 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
蝗灾是世界上重要自然灾害之一 ,蝗虫监测与预报因此成为各国管理部门的重要工作内容。新兴的遥感与GIS技术由于其在空间定位、信息获取、信息处理等方面的优势 ,必将成为该领域的重要研究手段。文中回顾和总结了国内外研究者利用遥感和GIS进行蝗虫监测和预报等方面的研究进展 ,并对其技术路线、发展趋势及存在问题进行了初步探讨 相似文献
830.